While most states ’political loyalty is divided between the Republican and Democratic parties, several states remain vacillating. Loyalties oscillate between them. Donald Trump or Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election in November will depend mainly on the outcome of these states’ voting.
During the last decades - specifically since the 1968 elections after the codification of civil rights legislation and the end of all aspects of apartheid in front of African Americans - many southern states tended to the Republican Party, and the loyalties of the northeastern states moved to the Democratic Party, while the western coastal states continued close to Democrats, while Republicans asserted control of many states of the North and Northwest.
Through an analysis carried out by Al Jazeera Net, it combined the pattern of historic states ’voting in the last 50 years with the results of the latest opinion polls on the 2020 elections. The following table divides the states according to their expected electoral tendencies for this year’s elections.
The candidate needs to win the presidency to obtain the votes of 270 delegates out of a total of 538, reflecting the number of representatives of the various states in the House of Representatives, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Each state maintains two delegates who reflect the membership of the Senate in the equality of all states, while the membership of the House of Representatives reflects the size of the state's population.
We find a huge state like California with 55 delegates (two reflecting the membership of the Senate in addition to 53 members of the House of Representatives), while some states like Wyoming, Montana and Alaska are represented by only 3 delegates (two reflecting the membership of the Senate, and one member reflects the membership of the House of Representatives).
According to Al-Jazeera Net analysis, the Republicans include 170 delegates from 22 states with a republican tendency, while the Democrats gathered 233 delegates from 21 fancy democratic states, and the competition for 135 delegates remains divided into 8 critical states.
With the exception of the states of Nebraska and Maine, the rest of the states and the District of Columbia follow the policy of "winner wins all state votes".
Swing states won by Trump in 2016
The eight rocking states that will determine the winner of the 2020 election were President Trump won in the 2016 election.
And the vote of those states fluctuated since the seventies of the last century between the two parties, and no Democratic or Republican president has won one of these states by a large difference from his opponent.
In theory, the chances of winning for all eight candidates in these eight states are close, but polls indicate Trump's lead in Florida and Ohio only, while polls give Joe Biden a comfortable victory in the rest of the swing states.
Trump needs immediate access to the presidency to get 100 of the 135 votes from swinging, or at least 74%, by assuming that he wins all the states traditionally pro-Republican, and these states are:
Pennsylvania state
Represented in Congress are two members of the Senate and 18 members of the House of Representatives, and it is a state divided between its rural areas that support the Republicans, and its major cities, such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, which support the Democrats.
She voted in the 2008 and 2012 elections for former Democratic President Barack Obama, but voted in the 2016 election for Trump.
Ohio State
Represented in Congress are two members of the Senate, 16 members of the House of Representatives, and voted in the 2008 and 2012 elections in favor of Democrat Obama, in exchange for her vote for Trump in the 2016 elections.
North Carolina
Represented in Congress by two members of the Senate and 13 members of the House of Representatives, she voted for Obama in the past two presidential elections, in exchange for her vote for Trump in the 2016 elections.
Wisconsin
Represented in Congress by two members of the Senate and 8 members of the House of Representatives, she was known for her support of Democrats through her vote in the 2008 and 2012 elections in favor of Obama, but she turned and voted for Trump in 2016.
Arizona State
Represented in Congress are two members of the Senate, and 9 members of the House of Representatives, known to support the Republicans, but once voted for Democrats in 1996 in favor of former President Bill Clinton, and all polls indicate the closeness of Biden and Trump candidates.
State of Georgia
Represented in Congress are two members of the Senate, and 14 members of the House of Representatives, known to support the Republicans in general, but voted in 1992 in favor of Democrat Clinton, then voted for the Republicans in all subsequent elections until she voted for Trump 2016, and all polls indicate the closeness of Biden and Trump in this state Southern Mission.
Florida State
Represented in Congress by two members of the Senate, and 27 members of the House of Representatives, she was known for her swinging loyalty in voting between Republicans and Democrats, as she voted in the 2008 and 2012 elections in favor of Obama, in exchange for her vote for Trump in 2016.
Michigan State
Represented in Congress by two members of the Senate, and 14 members of the House of Representatives, voted in the 2008 and 2012 elections in favor of Obama, in exchange for her vote for Trump in the 2016 elections.