Three months until the US presidential election Full-scale movement in the "Last Belt" zone, which is the focus August 3 18:26
Three months have passed before the US presidential election, and President Trump, who is aiming for re-election, is led by former Vice President Biden, who is aiming to regain the administration, with the support rate of the poll in the United States. Both sides see the trend of the laborers in the industrialized "Last Belt" zone as having a major impact on the whereabouts of the election, and are accelerating the movement in this area.
The US presidential election was three months until the voting day on November 3.
President Trump of the ruling party and the Republican Party is led by former vice president Biden of the opposition party and the Democratic Party in the support rate of various public opinion polls, and the support rate of the United States as of the 2nd on the American political information site ``Real Clear Politics'' The average value is 42% for President Trump and 49.4% for Mr. Biden of the Democratic Party, with a difference of 7.4 points.
The two sides emphasized that the trend of the workers in the zone called "Last Belt", which spreads from the eastern part of the industrial prosperity to the west, has a big influence on the whereabouts of the election. The campaign is in full swing by broadcasting election advertisements intensively.
Among them, the three states of "Last Belt", Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, were won by the Democratic Party in the presidential elections since the 1990s, but last time, President Trump won, which was a major factor in the victory.
This time, the average value of polls by Mr. Biden exceeded 5 to nearly 8 points in all, and Mr. Biden revitalized the manufacturing industry in order to capture the white laborers who supported Trump in the last election. Appealing
On the other hand, the Trump camp strongly replied that "Mr. Biden stole the president's policy", and the battle over the workers' votes of both camps has become more fierce.
Experts familiar with the movements of voters in this region said that although the support rate of President Trump in the last belt has been sluggish due to the spread of the new coronavirus, there is still strong support, We analyze that there is a good possibility of rewinding.
Featured "Last Belt"
"Last Belt" means a rusty industrial zone in Japanese, and white workers affected by the decline of industry endorsed President Trump, who sought to revive the manufacturing industry in the election four years ago It is said that it had a great influence on the election results.
The three states of Michigan and Wisconsin Pennsylvania were originally regions with a strong Democratic Party. In the previous poll, the Democratic Party's Mr. Clinton was dominant, but Mr. Trump reversed this and won a close victory.
The total number of electorates in these three states is 46, and it is said that these three states decided to win Mr. Trump, according to the analysis that if Clinton had won, the results would be different.
For this reason, in both the Republican and the Democratic countries, in this presidential election, we are aggressively developing election campaigns, such as by centrally broadcasting election television advertisements in these three states.
According to the American political information site "Real Clear Politics", Mr. Biden averaged 7.8 points in Michigan, 6 points in Pennsylvania, 5 points in Wisconsin, according to the average of various polls up to the last month. I am leading.
Also in the state of the Last Belt, where President Trump won 8 points ahead of the game in Ohio, Biden led by 1.5 points and Biden is now dominant.
However, there are many views that the situation may change in the United States from the previous example, and the trend of voters in this state is drawing attention.
Policies aimed at gaining support from workers
Both the Trump and Biden camps are working hard to win the Last Belt, with a policy aimed at gaining the support of the working class.
President Trump has adopted the United States No. 1 principle and has implemented tariffs on imported goods such as steel and eased environmental regulations in order to increase domestic employment.
In addition, the NAFTA = North American Free Trade Agreement has been reviewed to bring about the hollowing out of the US manufacturing industry, and the results are being appealed.
Under such circumstances, there were movements such as the resumption of operations at a steel mill that had been suspended in the Midwestern state of Illinois, and the construction of an assembly plant in Michigan for the first time in 30 years by an automobile manufacturer.
However, the economic outlook has changed with the spread of the new coronavirus, and the unemployment rate in the latest June was 14.8% in Michigan and 13% in Pennsylvania, worsening from the 11% level, which is the overall average.
On the other hand, Mr. Biden pointed out that President Trump's missteps are the cause of the economic downturn, and is strengthening the offensive in order to regain the labor vote.
Last month, we set a new slogan that aims to "build back better = better reconstruction" against President Trump, and invested JPY 75 trillion in Japanese yen to purchase American products, etc. Has announced a commitment to create jobs.
Originally from Pennsylvania, Mr. Biden has a strong relationship with the trade union, and he hopes the camp will be able to collect more labor votes than the previous candidate, Mr. Clinton.
However, as an environmental measure that affects the energy industry, we have launched an ambitious policy to increase the amount of solar power generation and wind power generation and reduce the exhaust gas from power generation facilities to zero by 2035. Has also been criticized.
Mr. Biden's dominance in the three states...
Professor Thomas Holbrooke, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin's Rustbelt Elections situation, has fallen behind in three states, President Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where President Trump won in the last election, which is responsible for the new coronavirus. It's making an impact.
According to Professor Holbrooke, these three states are all governors of the opposition and Democratic parties, and have taken a cautious position to restart the economy to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus, and have violently confronted President Trump and the Republicans who are aggressive in restarting the economy. It has been done.
For this reason, Professor Holbrook said that the spread of the infection in these three states is worsening, and as a result, the Democratic party's stance is supported, leading to Mr. Biden's evaluation, but it is also causing decline in support for President Trump. I am analyzing.
Specifically, he added that in addition to the non-partisan class, who received support from President Trump in the previous election, some of the white laborers are leaving Trump.
On the other hand, Professor Holbrook emphasized that "most of the white laborers are still Trump supporters," and said, "As the political situation polarizes, Mr. Biden will extend support to Republicans and conservatives. There is a limit."
``If a new coronavirus vaccine is put into practical use or if voters have hopes for the course of the country, it will help President Trump's re-election,'' said the viral infection and the future of the economy. It is said that it will affect the situation.
In addition, “The current situation in the three states looks like Mr. Biden's predominance, but there is a possibility that the flow will change due to party conventions and the decision of Mr. Biden's vice presidential candidate. Even in the 2016 presidential election, these three states were originally With Clinton's predominance, things change very easily," he said, and Trump said that there is a good chance that it will rewind, and he needs to carefully analyze future trends.
The supporters of President Trump...
In Michigan, one of the last belts where President Trump won in the last election, while there seems to be some support for the president, enthusiastic supporters who are also called "rock" are activating the campaign for re-election.
At the office of a conservative organization supporting President Trump in Michigan, a life-sized panel of President Trump was displayed, and volunteers gathered to prepare for the meeting.
Leonard Wyda (68), a business owner who visited the office to receive placards etc. to support President Trump on this day, said, “The state of the economy was depressed due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection. It is only Trump who will be able to recover. He will win this time as well. God will be with us," he said.
A woman who volunteers at the office said, "Employment, employment, employment. Michigan was in a difficult situation centered on the automobile industry, but the president removed regulations and brought employment." It was.
Another volunteer woman also advocated, "I like him. I do a great job. He brought us employment. He kept my promise."
In addition, another volunteer woman said, "I think the President did surprisingly well given what they are facing," and added that he criticized President Trump's response to the new coronavirus. Why should the President of the United States be criticized for the virus? I think we did a lot of work with the private sector to solve the problem."
The supporters of Democrat Biden are...
Guy Kubean, 60, from Michigan, who voted for President Trump in the last presidential election, said that the steel mill he had been working for more than 25 years would be the target of personnel cutbacks as the new coronavirus affected the new business. It was.
Mr. Kveen said, "The benefits have not been brought to the workforce. I can't say that my situation has improved. There have been no major improvements in salary or welfare, or rather the situation has become severe. It was just a matter of fact."
He added that President Trump had sought to revitalize the region's economy and bring in employment, saying, "The promise is not kept. Many of the people around me feel the same. It also appears in the polls of.”
Regarding the last time I voted for Mr. Trump, I regret that "that's exactly what we ask ourselves. Why did we vote for him. There is no decent answer." I let it soak.
"The steel industry I was in was in a state of turmoil, and in some cases I believed in President Trump's promise to restore the economy," he said.
In addition, Mr. Kubin said, "This state is the state where President Trump won last time but the trade union is strong and the Democratic Party is dominant. Mr. Trump turned it over last time, but this time it is not." As a result, in this election, he said that even among white workers like me, more people would support Democratic party Biden.
Experts Trends of the elderly also influence the outcome of the game
In this election, it is analyzed that the trends of the elderly also influence the outcome of the victory or defeat. President Trump positions the white elderly, who are said to have many conservatives, as an important support base, and in an exit poll of a leading paper of the election four years ago, Mr. Trump was a senior citizen over 65 years old I was leading Clinton by 8 points.
On the other hand, this time it was announced by Kinipiak University, which has a well-established public opinion poll, on the 15th of last month, and Mr. Biden led President Trump by 14 points in favor of the elderly people aged 65 and over, and various opinion polls But Mr. Biden has an advantage in supporting older voters.
Professor Jeff Brauer of Keystone University, Pennsylvania, who studies the voting behavior of older people, said that trends in the elderly would have a major impact on the whereabouts of the election, and President Trump could summarize the support of this group. Without it, we analyze that re-election is difficult.
According to Professor Blauer, President Trump has gained high support from older voters in the confrontation state, including leading the Democratic Party Clinton candidate by 17 points in support of the elderly in Southern Florida in the last election. He was able to win the election in 2016 thanks to older voters, who are the most important in this election and determine the outcome of this election."
On the other hand, the reason why President Trump's support for the elderly is declining at the moment is that "elderly voters are more affected by pandemics than anyone else and die at a very high rate. I'm very keenly aware that older people are starting to think that Mr. Trump isn't right for the president, rather than being enthusiastic about Mr. Biden," he said.
He added, "President Trump is losing support for older people in the last victorious war-torn states, making re-election difficult."
``President Trump understands that older people are the key to winning elections,'' said Brauer, who supported him by wearing a mask and stressing the importance of medical care for older people. We are trying to get it," he said. "When the spread of the new coronavirus subsides, and how we can cope with the medical anxiety of the elderly will affect the future situation."
Both camps battle the elderly
In June, President Trump held a meeting at the White House entitled "Battle for the Elderly in the United States" to reduce the burden of medical expenses on the elderly and strengthen the detection of fraud aimed at the elderly. I am putting effort into joining.
On the other hand, Mr. Biden invested more than 1.5 billion yen in Japanese yen in seven states such as Michigan and North Carolina, which he attaches importance to, and broadcast criticism by broadcasting an advertisement that concerns President Trump's response to the new coronavirus The battle between the two camps over the elderly is becoming more fierce.
Against this backdrop, some older people are rethinking their support for President Trump.
68-year-old Jay Copan, who lives in southern North Carolina, supported President Trump in the last election, but this time he said he will stop supporting in response to the spread of the new coronavirus infection.
Mr. Copan told President Trump, "There are a number of things we appreciate about the policies that have been realized, including tax cuts, deregulation, and the appointment of a conservative Supreme Court judge." On the other hand, President Trump's behavior and behaviour led him to question his qualities as a president, and he became decisive to respond to the spread of new coronavirus infection and protest against racism. It means that
Mr. Kopan said, "President Trump has shown no leadership in dealing with the crisis of the new coronavirus and the tension over racial issues. I can't support it. I think Mr. Biden can bring the nations together," he said, this time he will vote for Democratic Mr. Biden.