A year ago, Washington officially notified Moscow of its withdrawal from the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty). The corresponding statement by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was published on the website of the United States Embassy in the Russian Federation.
The reason for the unilateral termination of the agreement was the suspicion of the American authorities that Russia was developing a missile, the characteristics of which allegedly contradict the provisions of the INF Treaty. In particular, they talked about the 9M729 cruise missile of the Iskander complex.
From Washington's point of view, Moscow has allegedly consistently "violated" the treaty since the mid-2000s. At the same time, the flow of accusations against the Russian Federation has sharply increased in recent years against the background of the deterioration of bilateral relations.
Experts believe that Washington has taken advantage of the anti-Russian rhetoric that has become popular in the West in order to legalize and increase the production of its own weapons developments that go beyond the INF Treaty.
“Pompeo got the nickname“ bone breaker ”for a reason. It very eloquently characterizes his policies and, in general, the actions of the Donald Trump administration. The United States rudely and hypocritically accused Russia of doing what they did themselves, "Vladimir Vinokurov, professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said in a commentary on RT.
In July 2020, in an interview with Duma TV, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov called Washington's unilateral withdrawal from the INF Treaty as one of the biggest mistakes of American diplomacy, which led to irreversible consequences for international security.
“It is obvious that there can be no return to this document, which for decades has served as an important pillar of European security,” Ryabkov stated.
In turn, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation believes that Washington's actions aimed at breaking the INF Treaty were planned. As Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin emphasized on July 3 in an interview with reporters, "the entire responsibility for the collapse of the treaty lies entirely with the United States."
US violations
Recall that the INF Treaty was concluded on December 8, 1987 and entered into force on June 1, 1988. Moscow and Washington agreed on the indefinite elimination of ground-based missile systems capable of hitting targets at a distance of 500 to 5.5 thousand km.
The scrapping works were completed in 1991. In addition to land missiles, both powers destroyed the infrastructure that allowed the launch of prohibited weapons. The INF Treaty was considered the most important document on the path to ending the Cold War. In addition, he actually guaranteed the security of Europe.
- Leaders of the USA and the USSR Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev at the ceremony of exchanging the instruments of ratification of the entry into force of the INF Treaty
- © Yuri Abramochkin / RIA Novosti
At the same time, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, since 1999, the United States has systematically violated the INF Treaty. Russia, in particular, made claims regarding the so-called "target missiles" and attack UAVs, which fell under the description of the weapon prohibited in the treaty.
Also, Moscow has repeatedly expressed concern about the deployment of ground-based missile defense infrastructure in Eastern Europe, which allows the use of medium-range missiles of the Tomahawk family and other surface-to-surface weapons.
In addition, in 2017, Russian intelligence recorded the fact that the Americans were modernizing production facilities in order to create missiles prohibited by the INF Treaty. We are talking about expanding the area of the Raytheon arms corporation in Tucson, Arizona.
“In Washington, two years before the public unsubstantiated accusations of Russia of allegedly violating the INF Treaty, they not only made a decision, but also began preparations for the production of intermediate and shorter-range missiles prohibited by the treaty,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.
Already on August 18, 2019, that is, two weeks after Washington's withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the US military launched a Tomahawk from an Mk-41 land launcher, and in December of the same year, the Pentagon tested two ballistic missiles. The flight range of all these ammunition exceeded 500 km.
"Shameless behavior"
Experts point out that Moscow made every effort to preserve the INF Treaty, but the US withdrawal from this treaty was inevitable. So, in January last year, the Russian Ministry of Defense took an unprecedented measure of transparency - the military department disclosed the characteristics of the 9M729 and organized a public presentation of this missile.
The maximum range of the ammunition is 480 km, and this figure cannot be changed, since refueling is carried out exclusively in the factory, the Russian Defense Ministry emphasized. Nevertheless, Washington did not take into account Moscow's arguments. On February 2, 2019, the United States launched the withdrawal procedure from the INF Treaty.
- Demonstration of the 9M729 missile for military attachés of Western states
- © Vladimir Astapkovich / RIA Novosti
On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with Foreign and Defense Ministers Sergei Shoigu and Sergei Lavrov, announced that in such a situation Russia was forced to take mirror measures and begin developing new missile systems. On March 4, 2019, the Russian leader signed a decree suspending the implementation of the INF Treaty.
Moscow believes that Washington plans to deploy previously prohibited weapons in various regions of the world. Such actions, as previously noted in the Russian Foreign Ministry, are fraught with "additional escalation of tension and high risks of an arms race."
“Most likely, American intermediate and shorter-range missiles will be deployed in the Asia-Pacific region to“ contain ”China. The PRC has been declared enemy number one in the United States, a potential military adversary. It also cannot be ruled out that missiles from the United States may appear in Europe, ”Vinokurov predicts.
However, as he believes, Moscow and Beijing “keep in mind” such scenarios, perfectly aware of the scale of the risks to global security if they come true. At the same time, from Vinokurov's point of view, the current American leadership is unable to adequately assess the consequences of the transfer of missiles to the borders of states that are designated as geopolitical opponents.
In turn, in an interview with RT, the expert of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Sergey Ermakov said that Washington is "purposefully destroying" the entire system of control over nuclear missile weapons, without offering new constructive agreements in place of.
“In my opinion, the unilateral US withdrawal from the INF Treaty is largely due to Washington's desire to increase pressure on China, which has intermediate and shorter-range missiles in its arsenal. The Americans want to develop promising models, including ground-based hypersonic missiles. Naturally, such plans of the United States pose a potential threat to Russia as well, ”says Ermakov.
According to the analyst, the "shameless behavior" of the United States finally deprived the INF Treaty of chances for revival. At the same time, the expert does not rule out the development of a new comprehensive international agreement on the control of the missile arsenal.
Yermakov's cautious optimism stems from the fact that the Trump administration often exacerbates the situation to the limit, and then sometimes unexpectedly agrees to negotiations, hoping in this way to achieve concessions from opponents.
“There are no prerequisites for the revival of the INF Treaty, although, most likely, the control regime over previously banned missiles will be restored. A long and slow process lies ahead, and it may be linked to discussions on strategic arms limitations. But at the negotiating table, in addition to the United States, France and Great Britain must necessarily be, and not only China, as Washington insists, ”Yermakov said.