Chinanews client, Beijing, July 31st (Reporter Li Jinlei and Xie Yiguan) Under the impact of the epidemic, external risks and challenges have increased significantly. How will China's economy do in the second half of the year? The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan economic work in the second half of the year. In the second half of the year, China will do these major things!
Data map: A real estate project that has just been constructed. Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
Firmly grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand
The phrase "firmly grasping the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand" is critical. It appeared not only at the Politburo meeting, but also at the non-party forum held by the CPC Central Committee on July 28.
In addition, the recent hot "accelerating the formation of a new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the main body and mutual promotion of domestic and international cycles" has been emphasized again.
It also emphasizes the domestic cycle and regards the expansion of domestic demand as a strategic basis. What signal does this send?
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Research Institute of the China Policy Research Institute, told a reporter from Chinanews.com that emphasizing domestic demand is a rational choice for China in the face of increased external environmental uncertainty and increased risk factors.
In Xu Hongcai's view, one aspect is external pressure. Overseas epidemics have spread, global markets have shrunk, protectionism has risen, and anti-globalization has emerged. For China, it is unrealistic for China to rely on external demand and exports to boost the economy.
On the other hand, there is potential. China has a population of 1.4 billion. The market space is huge. The per capita GDP has exceeded 10,000 US dollars. The scale of middle-income groups continues to expand. The multi-level emerging consumer demand increases. There is a lot of room for future consumption growth. Related products and services. Therefore, in order to ensure the continuous improvement of people's living standards and enhance the endogenous driving force of the economy, domestic demand must be expanded.
Professor Cao Heping of the School of Economics at Peking University told a reporter from Chinanews.com that China's economic transformation has also reached a critical point. The original export-oriented and investment-driven economy needs to be transformed into a demand-oriented and innovation-driven economy. The internal logic of economic growth also requires the activation of the internal cycle.
Data map: Changsha's "night economy" is gradually recovering. Citizens travel to taste food on summer nights. Photo by Yang Huafeng
Expand final consumption and effective investment
To expand domestic demand, both consumer demand and investment demand are indispensable.
In the opinion of experts, it is necessary to do everything possible to release consumer demand and give full play to the basic role of consumption, but also to actively expand effective investment and give full play to the key role of investment.
Regarding the deployment of economic work in the second half of the year, this Politburo meeting also focused on expanding consumption and investment——
We must continue to expand domestic demand, overcome the impact of the epidemic, expand final consumption, and create conditions for residents' consumption upgrade. We must focus on the long-term, actively expand effective investment, and encourage social capital to participate. It is necessary to speed up the construction of new infrastructure, deepen the promotion of major regional development strategies, and accelerate the implementation of major national strategic projects. New types of urbanization should drive investment and consumer demand, and promote the innovation of systems and mechanisms for the integrated development of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas.
Xu Hongcai believes that the most important thing for expanding consumption is to increase employment and residents' income, which is the foundation. Efforts should be made to expand the middle-income group, narrow the income gap, improve social security and income distribution systems, and at the same time create a market environment conducive to promoting consumption, promote fair competition, combat counterfeiting, and improve product quality, so that consumers can eat and use You have to rest assured, vigorously cultivate emerging consumption represented by online consumption, so that consumers "can consume, dare to consume, and willing to consume."
To expand effective investment, Xu Hongcai said that it is important to support the "two new and one heavy" (new infrastructure construction, new urbanization construction, transportation, water conservancy and other major construction projects), through the guidance of policies and funds, through the optimization of the business environment , Mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment and foreign investment, and activate the vitality of market economy entities.
Data map: real estate. Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
Both the stock market and the property market emphasize "stable and healthy"
Regarding the stock market, the Politburo meeting proposed that it is necessary to promote the construction of the capital market infrastructure, strictly crack down on illegal securities activities in accordance with the law, and promote the stable and healthy development of the capital market.
Regarding the real estate market, the Politburo meeting proposed that it is necessary to adhere to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation, and to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
It can be seen that "stable and healthy" is the key word to set the tone for the stock market and the property market.
Regarding the stock market, Cao Heping told a reporter from Chinanews.com that whether it is investment demand or consumer demand, liquidity is needed to support it. To ensure the liquidity of the capital market, it is necessary to crack down on various violations.
Liu Feng, chief economist of China Galaxy Securities, told a reporter from Chinanews.com that to increase the service of the capital market to the real economy, it is necessary for good companies that lack money to obtain further support from the capital market. Where does the money come from? It is necessary for ordinary people to invest and dare to invest. To maintain the people's confidence in the capital market, strict law enforcement, strict supervision and zero tolerance must be required, and specific regulatory actions must be implemented.
For a period of time, there have been a number of vicious financial fraud cases in the capital market, which have had a bad impact. The Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council also recently held its 36th meeting to study the full implementation of the "zero tolerance" requirement for illegal and criminal acts in the capital market.
Therefore, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee once again emphasized "strengthening against illegal securities activities in accordance with the law", with an obvious intention to remove "malignant tumors" such as fraudulent issuance and financial fraud, so that the capital market can function effectively.
Regarding the property market, Xu Hongcai believes that it is of practical significance to re-emphasize "housing to live without speculation", and warns against rushing into it. The recent rebound in housing prices in individual cities, and the sharp rise in housing prices, is not conducive to the development of the real economy, and will also affect the consumption capacity of residents. Therefore, we must persist in not using real estate as a short-term economic stimulus method to stabilize the property market and prevent major fluctuations.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, told a reporter from Chinanews.com that in the first half of the year, a dozen cities across the country’s “one-day trip” policy of loosening regulation and control was reflected in the urge to loosen regulation and stimulate the real estate market. The effect behind it is obvious. With the combination of talent policies of more than 100 cities with various strengths, the real estate market has indeed stabilized rapidly, and even some cities have begun to become hot.
"As the policy sets the tone, many cities have begun to tighten the regulation of the property market. Overall, the real estate market policy will continue to be stable in the second half of the year." Zhang Dawei said.
Since July, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Dongguan and other hot cities have tightened their real estate control policies. The real estate work symposium held on July 24 also emphasized that the string of real estate regulation should be tightened at all times to prevent illegal capital flowing into the real estate market.
The meaning of pouring cold water on the overheated property market is obvious.
On July 4, Taiyuan, Shanxi, job seekers searched for jobs at the venue. Photo by China News Agency reporter Wu Junjie
People's livelihood security emphasizes employment
In terms of people’s livelihood protection, the Politburo meeting proposed to ensure the basic livelihood of the people in need, take effective measures to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on young people’s employment, strengthen employment services for migrant workers, and guide returning migrant workers to nearby employment.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, 5.64 million people were newly employed in cities and towns across the country, completing 62.7% of the annual target. In June, the nationwide surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from May.
However, 8.74 million college graduates will enter the job market this year, so the employment situation is still grim.
Zhang Yi, dean of the Institute of Social Development Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told a reporter from Chinanews.com: "Recovering the job market for migrant workers and the job market for graduates is currently two major issues in employment.
Recently, official employment stabilization and employment protection measures have been introduced one after another.
The executive meeting of the State Council held on July 15 deployed to further promote mass entrepreneurship innovation, give money, venues, and training, and focus on supporting the employment and entrepreneurship of college graduates and other groups.
In addition, 13 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission have recently jointly released 15 new business formats to drive employment expansion. Including support for diversified self-employment and time-sharing employment such as micro-business, e-commerce and webcasting. Vigorously develop the micro economy and encourage "sideline innovation".
The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Finance, and the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League have recently jointly issued and implemented the "Skills Training Action Plan for Millions of Youth". From 2020 to 2021, vocational skills training will be conducted for more than 2 million youth groups to increase youth employment and entrepreneurship success. Rate, expand and stabilize youth employment.
Zhang Ying, director of the Employment Promotion Department of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, recently pointed out that the measures to reduce burdens and stabilize jobs will be fully implemented, increase support for independent entrepreneurship and flexible employment, and deploy and implement employment and entrepreneurship promotion for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers. Actions, special employment services and other activities, strive to ensure the completion of the annual employment target, and strive to ensure the overall stability of employment.
Employment is the biggest livelihood of the people and must be stable. (Finish)