"The polarization of society is increasing": why the level of support for Donald Trump is declining

Only 20%Americans believe that the country under the leadership of Donald Trump is on the right course. This is evidenced by the results of a poll conducted by the Associated Press and the NORC at the University of Chicago. The poll was published 100 days before the November 2020 presidential election.

According to sociologists, this is the lowest figure for the entire period of Trump's presidency. In March, the US course under the 45th president was approved by 42% of respondents.

Approval of Trump's presidency in the 100 days before the election also dropped to 38%, down from 43% in March.

Support for the actions of the Trump administration to combat the spread of coronavirus is also falling - 32% of respondents approve of the policy of the current head of the White House in this area. For comparison: in March this figure was 44%. 

The poll also showed the growing dissatisfaction of citizens with the economic situation in the United States. The current state of the American economy is approved by 38% of respondents. The Associated Press notes that before the start of the pandemic, in January, this figure was at 67%. The number of those who positively assess measures to support the American economy during the coronavirus has also decreased - from 56% in March to 48% in July. 

CNN also prepared its poll 100 days before the new presidential elections. According to its results, Democratic candidate Joe Biden leads the three states that secured Trump's victory in 2016 - Florida, Michigan and Arizona.

According to the aggregator of sociological polls RealClearPolitics, as of July 25, 50.6% of voters are ready to vote for Joe Biden, while 41.3% are for Donald Trump.

Joe Biden's campaign headquarters take such polls seriously. For the rest of the presidential race, Biden's team plans to focus on the personality of Donald Trump, and present the election as a referendum on his suitability for the post of head of state, Kate Bedingfield, deputy head of Joe Biden's campaign headquarters, told the Associated Press.

“People are already tired to death of a fragmented government, unable to function normally and achieve results. It seems to people that Trump is now engaged in exclusively incoherent, selfish political chatter, ”said a functionary of Biden's headquarters.

Donald Trump himself has vehemently rejected the results of numerous polls that indicate his shaky position. He called them "bogus" and announced that he will defeat Biden and the Democrats in November.

The Trump Campaign has more ENTHUSIASM, according to many, than any campaign in the history of our great Country - Even more than 2016. Biden has NONE! The Silent Majority will speak on NOVEMBER THIRD !!! Fake Suppression Polls & Fake News will not save the Radical Left.

“Many believe that Trump’s campaign is more ENTHUSIASM than any other in the history of our great country. It even surpasses the 2016 campaign. Biden does NOT have this! The silent majority will speak out on NOVEMBER THIRD !!! Fake opinion polls that lower my rating and fake news will not save the ultra-left, ”the US President wrote on his Twitter.

The published poll results suggest that the coronavirus epidemic in the country and the economic downturn caused by it have really shaken the position of the Trump administration, said Konstantin Blokhin, an expert at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

“All these problems have shaken Trump's position, and Democrats are trying to take advantage of this situation. Today, Trump's position is not as stable as it used to be, and it is difficult to talk about his victory in the 2020 elections. But at the same time, it is too early to talk about the victory of the Democrats, since America is split, the polarization of society is increasing, ”the expert noted.

Protest mood

Experts note that the Donald Trump administration is in a difficult position not only because of the coronavirus pandemic that has undermined the economy, but also because of the ongoing protests throughout the country.

Recall that since the end of May, protests have been taking place in various cities of the United States, often resulting in riots and pogroms. The cause of unrelenting unrest was the death of African American George Floyd during his arrest by the police,

• Police arrest a protester in Portland
• Reuters
• © Caitlin Ochs

In some cities in the United States, protest movements have become protracted and regularly end in clashes with the police. For example, in Portland, where the unrest has been going on for more than 60 days, rioters broke through the fence at the federal court building, after which the law enforcement agents guarding it were forced to use tear gas.

In Louisville, Kentucky, at least three people were injured in gunfire, local police said. The incident occurred during a demonstration by the NFAC (Not F * cking Around Coalition) at John Baxter Park. At the same time, according to law enforcement officers, the reason was the careless handling of weapons.

In Seattle, rioters threw an improvised explosive device at the Eastern District Police Department, which broke through the wall, and began throwing stones and bottles at security officials. In response, the police opened fireat the protesters with rubber bullets. As a result of the clashes, 59 police officers were injured, 47 people were detained.

Despite such incidents, the mainstream media in the US refers to the protests as “peaceful”. However, representatives of law enforcement agencies do not agree with this assessment of the situation.

“What we saw today is not a peaceful demonstration at all. The rioters did not care about public safety, the safety of the police, and the shops and property they destroyed, ”said Seattle Police Chief Carmen Best.

Since the start of the riots, Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized local authorities for not using the police and National Guard to suppress riots. On July 22, the head of the White House announced the launch of Operation Legend, which sent federal intelligence agents directly subordinate to Washington to cities in riot.

Earlier, The New York Times reported that the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has begun to form "rapid response squads" from employees of the Customs Service, Immigration Police, Coast Guard, Transportation Security Administration and the Federal Defense Service.

According to Andrei Sidorov, Dean of the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University, Trump's political opponents are now pushing his administration to use force.

“He is being spun into a lot of blood, that is, the feds must use force. Escalation by federal security officials can lead to killed and wounded among the protesters, which means that Trump will immediately be called a bloody dictator, ”the political scientist said.

According to Konstantin Blokhin, despite the dispatch of federal agents to the cities, Trump is refraining from solving the protest problem by force, as this will give the Democratic Party a reason to make him a dictator and autocrat.

“Trump does not want to use force yet, because in this case he will be called a despot and a tyrant. And the Democrats are playing exactly this card ... Trump needs real political skill in order to show both strength and not get into a difficult situation, "the expert noted.

Without an economic platform

Economic growth in the United States before the pandemic was the basis of Donald Trump's election platform, but now the Republican Party will have to look for other achievements that can be attributed to itself, believes Konstantin Blokhin. 

“Before the coronavirus, the best foundation for victory was a growing economy. This foundation has gone from under Trump's feet. It is clear that now it is necessary to stabilize the political system, but the democrats do not want to allow this, and prevent the suppression of protests, ”the political scientist said.  

Konstantin Blokhin believes that against this background, Trump will make more and more resonant statements and steps in foreign policy, presenting China as an external enemy. 

In turn, Andrei Sidorov notes that in order to correct its shaken positions, the Trump administration is preparing a new aid package for the Americans, on which it is planned to spend about $ 1 trillion. In addition, the US authorities are actively working to develop or acquire a coronavirus vaccine to cope with the pandemic, the expert added. All this Donald Trump will write down as his victories, the political scientist notes.  

Andrei Sidorov also noted that public opinion polls may show Trump lagging behind due to the reluctance of his supporters to publicly support him, as well as because of the bias of the media that conduct them.

“When referring to polls, one should understand that often Americans do not talk about supporting Trump, because this is condemned by society. When a voter is left alone with the ballot box, he votes for him and does not tell anyone about it. This situation is not excluded. Moreover, most of the polls are carried out by the media that are opposed to Trump and are instruments of political struggle. They show that Trump is constantly lagging behind and the gap is only growing, thereby affecting public opinion, ”the expert emphasized.

Konstantin Blokhin adheres to a similar point of view.

"At election hour, when the electorate will be faced with the question - Biden or Trump, everything will help change," the expert concluded.