"The conflict will be protracted": how the closure of consulates in Houston and Chengdu will affect the relations between the US and China

The US Consulate General operating in the city of Chengdu has officially ceased its work. This is stated in a message published on the website of the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

“At 10:00 am on July 27, 2020, in accordance with the demand of the Chinese side, the US Consulate in Chengdu was closed. After that, representatives of the Chinese authorities entered the building through the main entrance and took control of the building, ”the statement said.

The American diplomatic mission in Chengdu was opened in 1985, its scope of activity included the southwestern regions of China, including the provinces of Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, the Tibet Autonomous Region, and the city of central Chongqing.

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• © Dwi Anoraganingrum / Geisler-Fotop

On July 24, the Chinese Foreign Ministry informed the American side that Beijing was withdrawing its consent to the work of the American consulate. The reason was Washington's demand to close the Chinese consulate in Houston. The Chinese Foreign Ministry called this step by the American authorities a "unilateral provocation."

"This step by the United States was a serious violation of international law, the basic norms of international relations and the terms of the Consular Convention concluded between China and the United States, and also caused significant damage to Sino-American relations," the website of the PRC Foreign Ministry said.

"We again call on the United States to immediately reconsider its erroneous decision and create the necessary conditions for the return of bilateral relations to normal," the PRC Foreign Ministry called on.

Commenting on the state of Sino-American relations on July 27, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that the current situation was "undesirable" for Beijing, but that the American side was entirely responsible for the tension that had arisen.

The US State Department also commented on the situation, saying that they are "disappointed" with the decision of the Chinese Communist Party and will strive to continue working in this "important region" through other diplomatic channels. This statement of the State Department was quoted on July 27 by Reuters.

"Complete re-examination of the relationship"

Earlier, US federal agents and local law enforcement officials infiltrated a Chinese diplomatic facility in Houston, Texas. According to local media reports, the security forces acted on the basis of a government order dated July 21. The doors of the Chinese consulate were broken into by a group of plainclothes men several hours after the Chinese diplomats left the building.

According to media reports citing US officials, the Chinese Consulate in Houston was suspected of illegal activities in one of the research institutes located in Texas. Allegedly, Chinese diplomats talked with scientists and told them what information they should collect. Therefore, the demand to close the PRC Consulate General in Houston was put forward to protect "American intellectual property", White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnani said.

• A group of people opens the door of the Chinese Consulate in Houston
• Reuters
• © Gary McWilliams

As Alexander Lomanov, head of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies of the IMEMO RAS, noted in an interview with RT, the closure of consulates inThe US and China will be a symbolic blow to US-China relations.

“This is a very important symbolic gesture, considering that both consulates operated for a very long time. And it leads to the destruction of relations built in the 1960s and 1970s, when there was a rapprochement between the PRC and the United States. Now we can say that the era of great hopes and mutual interest is over, "the expert explained in an interview with RT.

Recall that Donald Trump resorted to anti-Chinese rhetoric during his 2016 election campaign. He accused Beijing of dishonest trade policies and deliberate undervaluation of the yuan in order to increase the export potential of Chinese goods.

The imbalance in the trade between the PRC and the United States was one of the key topics that Trump addressed at the beginning of his presidential term. There were indeed grounds for such statements. Thus, by 2018, China supplied the US with goods worth $ 419.2 billion more than American companies exported to the Chinese market.

At the same time, the White House placed the blame for the current situation not on the objective market situation, but personally on the leadership of the PRC.

In March 2018, Donald Trump signed a memorandum on Combating China's Economic Aggression. After that, the United States began to gradually impose protective duties on the import of Chinese products worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Beijing retaliated.

The actions of the American administration led to the fact that under Trump, China lost its status as the main trading partner of the United States. According to statistics, at the end of 2019, he took third place in this rating, behind Canada and Mexico.

In addition, against this background, the PRC also gradually reduced its participation in the American public debt, yielding first place to Japan. Recall that since 2008, China has held the largest volume of US government bonds. Now the level of Chinese investments is more than $ 1.08 trillion.

After lengthy negotiations, Beijing and Washington in early 2020 were able to agree on the first stage of the trade deal. Beijing has pledged to increase purchases of American products by $ 76.7 billion during the first year of the agreement and by $ 123.3 billion during the second.

However, this did not ease tensions in Sino-US relations. The American leadership soon accused Beijing of hiding information about the coronavirus COVID-19, which allegedly led to negative epidemiological consequences.

• Donald Trump
• Reuters
• © Tom Brenner

According to a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, Americanist Sergei Sudakov, any concessions from Beijing in the trade sphere no longer satisfy Washington.

“The US needs a complete overhaul of relations. In any case, the current conflict will be protracted, "the expert said in an interview with RT.

Alexander Lomanov adheres to a similar point of view. The analyst explained that the stage when trade disputes were at the forefront of Sino-US relations has already passed.

“The Americans first demanded to conclude a large package deal, where, in addition to increasing American imports, China also had to change its domestic economic policy. The United States believed that if the PRC was interested in the American market, it would agree to such concessions. But these expectations did not come true and they decided to divide the deal into three stages, the first of which was the purchase of American goods by the PRC. And the rest of the deal was postponed, ”the expert explained.

However, amid the events of the first half of 2020, the continuation of the trade deal is hardly possible, Lomanov said.

Asymmetric potential

The degree of tension in US-Chinese relations has reached such a level that the head of the State Department, Mike Pompeo, announced the need to create an anti-Chinese international alliance - the so-called "alliance of democracies."

In addition, the United States has expressed a desire to establish cooperation with Russia to counter China. Pompeo said this during his speech at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library in Yorba Linda on 23 July. Answering the question, "Does Russia now give the United States an opportunity to involve it in the ongoing confrontation" between the United States and China, Pompeo expressed confidence that "there is such an opportunity."

However, Moscow does not plan to respond to this call from Washington. As the press secretary of the president saidRussia Dmitry Peskov, Moscow is not a member of alliances directed against any countries, and the PRC is an ally and partner of the Russian Federation.

It should be noted that, despite the attacks of the American side, Beijing remains committed to dialogue. This, in particular, was stated by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaking at the beginning of July at the Sino-American media forum.

The minister stressed that China and the United States should not try to change each other, but should seek ways of peaceful coexistence. The diplomat also recalled that the socialist path followed by China is the choice of the Chinese people. At the same time, China does not seek to export its socio-political model abroad, and is not interested in expansion and aggression.

“Current US policy towards China is based on erroneous strategic judgments that lack factual justification. She is filled with emotional performances and McCarthy biases. The unreasonable fears of the United States regarding China have already reached the point that they panic on every occasion and are afraid of what they have invented for themselves, ”the minister stressed.

According to experts, American politicians and diplomats do often proceed from distorted ideas about China.

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi
• Reuters
• © China Daily

“Sinology in the USA is not very well developed, because for a long time the Americans relied on Sovietology, not considering China as a rival. In the United States, of course, there are good Sinologists, but there are not many of them, ”noted Sergei Sudakov.

Experts doubt that US-China relations will improve in the foreseeable future.

“Neither the PRC nor the United States has a desire to change their policy. What is happening now can be called diplomatic rejection. The race led by the United States and China is different from the Soviet-American rivalry during the Cold War. There is a clear imbalance here. The military superiority is on the side of the United States, but China is betting on economic development, ”said Sudakov.

Alexander Lomanov adheres to a similar point of view.

“We don't know how far the US-China standoff might go. Now the Americans consider any harshness against China acceptable. And China is reluctant to answer them. The balance point in US-China relations is long gone, ”the expert noted.

At the same time, the confrontation will not become a copy of the Cold War, since the USSR and the United States at one time did not have such close economic relations as China and the United States do now.

“But the biggest difference is that China refuses to go to ideological war with the United States. There will be no mirror response from Beijing in the ideological field, ”Lomanov is sure.

Speaking about the prospects of the arms race between the countries, the expert noted that this issue is now of concern to the entire Asia-Pacific region.

“There are disputes in China, many believe that the Chinese side should increase its nuclear arsenal, but so far Beijing refrains from this. China does not want to take the place of the USSR on this issue. Now the potentials of the PRC and the USA are asymmetric. America has nuclear superiority, but China has the determination to develop high technology and go further than the United States. It is for this reason that the Americans began a policy of pressure on China, ”the expert summed up.