On Monday, July 27, a "full and comprehensive ceasefire regime" comes into force in the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine. Representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) in Minsk agreed on this last week. It is assumed that the truce may become a prologue to the "implementation of other provisions" of the agreements of February 12, 2015.
Under the terms of the truce, the parties to the conflict should not use weapons, place heavy weapons on civilian objects, carry out offensive and reconnaissance and sabotage activities, or launch UAVs into the air.
The militia and the Ukrainian army are required to resolve controversial incidents through a coordination mechanism to respond to ceasefire violations with the assistance of the JCCC (Joint Control and Coordination Center). Return fire is allowed to open only after unsuccessful attempts to solve the problem with the assistance of this institution.
- Statement by the Head of the People's Militia Department of the DPR Major General Denis Sinenkov on the introduction of the silence regime
On July 26, the DPR People's Militia Department issued an order prohibiting the use of any weapon, including small arms. In turn, the command of the Joint Forces Operation (JF) announced on its Facebook page that it reserves the possibility of using means of destruction "in case of violation of agreements by the enemy."
In addition, “specially seconded Ukrainian servicemen” began to arrive at the contact line in Donbass, most of whom have combat experience and “were directly involved in specialized issues while participating in peacekeeping missions under the auspices of the UN.” In the event of a resumption of confrontation in the combined forces, "appropriate additional reserves" have been created, the JFO command said in a statement.
Armistice after shelling
On the evening of July 26, on the eve of the entry into force of the silence regime, a telephone conversation took place between the presidents of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky. The interlocutors welcomed the agreements reached within the TCG.
The rest of the official messages on the websites of the two leaders are different. Thus, the press service of the Kremlin said that Putin expressed "serious concern" in connection with the recent statements by Ukrainian officials about the unacceptability of a number of provisions of "Minsk-2" and the need to revise it. At the same time, the website of the Ukrainian president does not say anything about this. Zelensky's office, in turn, informs that both leaders "discussed the details of interaction on demining, the disengagement of forces and equipment and the opening of new checkpoints (checkpoints of entry-exit. - RT ) on the contact line."
The conclusion of the ceasefire agreements was preceded by clashes between the Donbass militia and the Ukrainian military. According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, in mid-July, positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in different parts of the contact line were fired upon from mortars and grenade launchers.
Also, when trying to evacuate the deceased soldier near the village of Zaitsevo (near Gorlovka), a group of several Ukrainian soldiers allegedly fell into an ambush by the "invaders". As a result, a military doctor and another soldier were killed.
According to the militia, the Ukrainian fighters operating in the area of the village of Zaitsevo were from the 35th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Their tasks included carrying out a "raid sabotage and reconnaissance attack" on the position of the People's Militia of the DPR, but the marines were blown up by mines.
After the death of servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainian army fired at Maryinka and Aleksandrovka. As a result of the shooting, two civilians were injured. For several days, the Ukrainian military fired on the western outskirts of Donetsk. On July 16, the militia attacked the positions of the 79th separate airborne assault brigade of Ukraine, which, according to the militias, is responsible for shelling the capital of the DPR. As a result, one soldier was killed and three were wounded.
"Almost five months resistance"
Experts interviewed by RT recalled that this is not the first time the current silence regime has been announced. As a rule, bans on the use of any type of weapon are declared after a serious exacerbation of the situation, on holidays or at the time of harvest - a “grain truce”. However, a complete ceasefire still does not take place - only the intensity of the shelling decreases, analysts say.
“On the one hand, any truce in Donbass is already positive news, as it helps to save human lives. But I personally do not cherish hopes now. I would like this regime of silence to last as long as possible, but, apparently, like the previous ones, it will last a very short time, "Denis Denisov, director of the Institute for Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology, said in an interview with RT.
- Ukrainian servicemen near the village of Zolote
- © Gleb Garanich / Reuters
A similar forecast is given by Oleg Nemensky, a leading researcher at RISS. In a commentary for RT, the expert noted that Kiev does not see political expediency in ensuring a regime of silence on the contact line.
According to the expert, the continuation of hostilities in the Donbass allows the Ukrainian leadership to blame the internal problems of the country on the war and propagandize Russophobia in foreign policy discourse, thereby attracting the attention of the West.
“Apart from everything else, Kiev does not control the front line where paramilitary groups consisting of radicals are stationed. In principle, they do not consider it necessary to carry out the orders of the authorities, which was eloquently shown by Zelensky's skirmish with the nationalists last fall, when he persuaded them to leave their positions on the contact line, ”Nemensky recalled.
Commenting on the ceasefire agreement from July 27, Russia's plenipotentiary at the talks in Minsk, Boris Gryzlov, said that "after almost five months of resistance, the Ukrainian side found the courage to agree on the ceasefire measures that were repeatedly proposed by Donetsk and Luhansk."
At the same time, Kiev in its own way assessed the agreement on the introduction of a regime of silence. The website of the President of Ukraine announced that within the framework of the TCG it was possible to make a "breakthrough in the Minsk process", which became possible thanks to "the effective work of the Ukrainian delegation with the support of our international partners in Berlin and Paris."
The President of Ukraine expects that the agreement on a full and comprehensive ceasefire in Donbass will be signed by the leaders of the Normandy Four countries. From Zelensky's point of view, this will raise the status of the agreements reached and increase the chances of their compliance.
“This document is now awaiting signing by all parties of the Normandy group. I believe that all parties - Ukraine, France, Germany and the Russian Federation - will sign, and from the 27th, I believe that a moment may come when there will be a stable ceasefire, "Zelensky said on July 23, speaking with journalists at the checkpoint. point "Stanitsa Luganskaya".
"A good mine with a bad game"
The office of the President of Ukraine considers the observance of the silence regime as a prerequisite for the implementation of the political part of Minsk-2. However, from the point of view of Zelensky, the implementation of these points should take place in a different sequence than the one that is enshrined in the agreements of February 12, 2015.
In particular, Kiev insists that the Ukrainian Armed Forces transfer the sections of the border with the Russian Federation previously occupied by the militia. Only after this is the Ukrainian leadership ready to hold elections in the uncontrolled regions.
At the same time, Minsk-2 determines a different procedure for the implementation of the political settlement: the issue of transferring the border to Kiev is resolved positively only after the local elections. Moreover, such a sequence of actions is fixed in the Steinmeier formula, which Zelensky agreed to fulfill in the fall of 2019.
- President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a working trip to Donbass
- © Press Service of the President of Ukraine
According to experts, in recent months Kiev has been adhering to the course of revising the agreements of February 12, 2015 and therefore is not going to fulfill the provisions of the political part in the sequence in which they are set forth now. In announcing a "breakthrough in the Minsk process," Zelenskiy hopes to preserve the image of a "peacemaker" in the eyes of citizens and Western partners, analysts say.
“Kiev has to put on a good face with a bad game. I do not exclude that the European states could have put pressure on Zelensky so that he agreed to the introduction of a ceasefire and thereby demonstrated that the Minsk process is still alive and Kiev is able to take any serious steps, which in reality, of course, is not so, "says Nemensky.
Oleg Denisov also believes that the announced ceasefire is not a signal of Kiev's readiness to move forward in resolving the issue of disengagement of forces and the phased implementation of the Minsk agreements.
“Only the full implementation of Minsk-2 will bring peace to the land of Donbass. Yes, this is a complex process that requires mutual compromises. But the lack of political will in Kiev deprives the agreement of any chances for implementation, ”Denisov stressed.