The Arab "super-long standby" monarchs have been hospitalized one after another. Will the Gulf welcome a new generation of leaders?

　　On July 23, Saudi officials announced that King Salman, 84, had successfully undergone cholecystectomy and is currently recovering in the hospital. Although some sources revealed that King Salman's physical condition has returned to stability, it still arouses concerns about whether the King can continue to govern.

　　Coincidentally, just a few days ago, the 91-year-old Kuwaiti Emir (head of state) Sabah was admitted to the hospital for physical examination, and the Emir Office authorized Crown Prince Nawaf to temporarily exercise the powers of some heads of state. On the morning of July 23, Sabah, who had undergone surgery in Kuwait, went to the United States for further medical care.

　　The admission of the two elderly monarchs has aroused speculation from the outside world: Will the princes of the two countries officially enter the political arena?

"Long standby" monarchs' health concerns

　　On July 20, the Saudi Royal Court issued a statement stating that King Salman was hospitalized in the capital Riyadh due to gallbladder inflammation. In order to reduce the concerns of the outside world, Salman hosted a cabinet meeting via video call in the hospital ward on the 21st. In the video, it can be seen that the king can read the documents normally.

　　"A race against life" has always been a cruel test faced by members of the Saudi royal family who are determined to hold power. The last King Abdullah succeeded to the throne at the age of 80. During his ten years in power, many of the younger brothers who were elected as the crown prince died of illness, until the youngest surviving brother Salman in 2012. Was elected as the crown prince. When Salman became the throne, he was already 80 years old.

　　For a monarch such as Salman, who has "extra-long standby", his health has inevitably become a political issue. The New York Times reported that King Salman has been plagued by health problems since he became king. Many foreign media have also disclosed that Saudi King Salman suffers from Alzheimer's syndrome.

　　In March 2016, Lebanese media Al-Ahed stated that he had obtained a medical record of King Salman, proving that the King had suffered from dementia since 2008 and that the number of visits to the hospital had increased in the past few months. The report further predicted that in the next 18 months, Salman's health will deteriorate further and he cannot continue to hold his position. Al-Ahed even reported that “the king’s state is not stable, in fact his son (Crown Prince Mohammed) governs the country.”

　　But until this time he was admitted to the hospital, it was not reported that King Salman had serious health problems in the previous four years.

　　The Kuwaiti Emir Sabah, who is older than Salman, seems to be less optimistic. On July 18, the Kuwait National News Agency (KUNA) reported that Sabah was admitted to the hospital for physical examination on the same day, but did not disclose specific details about Sabah’s physical condition.

　　Sabah and Salman were enthroned in the same year, and they were 87 years old when they became king. It is worth noting that the Saudi National News Agency released a message on the afternoon of the 18th, saying that Saudi King Salman had a phone call with Sabah that day and expressed concern about his physical condition.

　　On July 23, the News Agency reported that after undergoing surgery in Kuwait, Emil Sabah had traveled to the United States for "further medical care" in the morning of the same day. But the report did not elaborate on why Emil was receiving treatment in the United States.

　　The 91-year-old Sabah has been in poor health. In 2000, Sabah had surgery to implant a pacemaker; in 2002, Sabah underwent appendectomy; in 2007, Sabah underwent urinary tract surgery in the United States. In 2019, Sabah visited the United States and underwent a medical examination shortly after his arrival, which led to the cancellation of the meeting with US President Trump.

Is the new generation of heads going to take over?

　　After Saudi King Salman was admitted to the hospital, some experts analyzed that the 34-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed may be in power before the US election in November this year.

　　Hong Kong’s "Asia Times" quoted Nabeel Nowairah (Nabeel Nowairah) of the Gulf States Independent Policy Research Institute as saying that "it is expected that he (Crown Prince Mohammed) will be ascended by the end of this year." Novara said some sources believe that This shift may even occur within the next month.

　　A Western researcher who frequently visits Saudi Arabia told the Asia Times, “It is unlikely that King Salman will still be the king by January next year.” The researcher said on condition of anonymity, “To King Salman In other words, this is indeed a health challenge.” The anonymous person also hinted that Salman's more serious health problems may be accelerating.

　　The above-mentioned person pointed out that Salman occasionally grants executive power to the crown prince when he is abroad. "I have seen him, he issued a royal decree, and then said, I am going to rest, (this matter) my son is responsible."

　　The current Crown Prince Mohammed has always been one step ahead in the pursuit of power. In June 2017, Salman announced the deposing of the original crown prince, his nephew Mohammed bin Naif, and his son Mohammed bin Salman as the new crown prince. A few months after Crown Prince Mohammed came to power, he used the banner of anti-corruption to carry out a large-scale "cleansing" of the Saudi political arena. Almost all important figures who could threaten Muhammad's status were affected.

　　A commentary in the "Capitol Hill" pointed out that Saudi Arabia's royal succession rules are theoretically clear, but there is room for modification. During the king's illness, Crown Prince Mohammed can "regent", but this requires his father's announcement. In theory, the king could also announce his abdication, although this would create a precedent.

　　"In this era of the new crown epidemic, all of these have the potential to bring huge dramatic effects." "Capitol Hill" pointed out.

　　Compared with Saudi Arabia, discussions on the future leaders of Kuwait are relatively more restrained. After all, Kuwaiti Crown Prince Nawaf, a senior politician, is also 83 years old this year.

　　(This article is from The Paper. For more original information, please download the "The Paper" APP)