Confindustria: GDP rising, but high risks remain. Low demand
2020-07-24T09:46:47.379Z
We are at the beginning of the third quarter, which will record a positive change in the Italian GDP, after the minimum of the recession in the second ". This was reported by the Confindustria Study Center, in Conjuncture Flash. "There are few data on the trend in July, but a rise was hardly started in May-June. However, it was partial and the risks of fading are high, leaving the business on compressed levels. The post-lockdown brake is the demand that remains low. "The export of goods restarted in May (+ 34.6%), but still well below pre-Covid levels (-26.1%). Sales Italians have recovered compared to those of Germany and the US. They keep pharmaceuticals, less food, they are almost halved in motor vehicles and clothing. The main markets are very weak. A gradual improvement is reported by PMI foreign orders (44.5 in June) In May, the number of employees decreased again (-84 thousand), but active job search has started to rise again (+ 307 thousand), a good sign in the future. to safeguard jobs by adjusting the hours worked ", underlines the CSC. Until May the Bank of Italy data do not show a marked impact of the measures launched on loans to businesses, which are moderately increasing (+ 1.9% per year Weekly information available on secured loans ind however, the flow would widen in June-July, going more to meet the need for liquidity created in many Italian companies. The sovereign rate in Italy continues the downward trend (1.16% on average in July), remaining far from the level in Spain (0.35%) and especially in the triple A countries of the Eurozone (-0.40%). It helps the ECB, which confirmed the continuation of the purchases of securities long after the end of the lockdown. The stock market in Italy accentuates the rise (+ 6.6% in July), but remains at compressed values (-18.6% from pre-Covid. In May in the Eurozone the first signs of recovery in activity, thanks to the easing of health constraints and reopenings: + 12.4% for industrial production and + 27.9% for construction, + 17.8% for retail trade, however, these are partial rebounds: still -19.2% per year in industry. In June, however, PMI indices improved further, in France above the neutral threshold (51.7). "Europe has launched the plan for the recovery of 750 billion: it is a historic agreement - underlines Confindustria Italy would have 208.8 billion, of which 81.4 billion in grants and 127.4 loans. 70% of the grants will have to be committed in 2021-2022, the rest by 2023. States must present plans containing reforms and investments; the Commission assesses them, also on the basis of its recommendations ".
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July 24 2020Siamo beginning of the quarter, the third, which will record an increase of the Italian GDP, after the trough of the recession in the second. "It signals the Confindustria Research Center, Congiuntura Flash. According to experts of the avenue ' Astronomy, "the data on the trend in July are few, but a rise was hardly started in May-June. However, it was partial and the risks of fading are high, leaving the business on compressed levels. The post-lockdown brake is the demand that remains low. " The export of goods restarted in May (+ 34.6%), but still well below pre-Covid levels (-26.1%). Sales Italians have recovered compared to those of Germany and the US. They keep pharmaceuticals, less food, they are almost halved in motor vehicles and clothing. The main markets are very weak. A gradual improvement is reported by PMI foreign orders (44.5 in June) In May, the number of employees decreased again (-84 thousand), but active job search has started to rise again (+ 307 thousand), a good sign in the future. to safeguard jobs by adjusting the hours worked ", underlines the CSC. Until May the Bank of Italy data do not show a marked impact of the measures launched on loans to businesses, which are moderately increasing (+ 1.9% per year Weekly information available on secured loans ind however, the flow would widen in June-July, going more to meet the need for liquidity created in many Italian companies. The sovereign rate in Italy continues the downward trend (1.16% on average in July), remaining far from the level in Spain (0.35%) and especially in the triple A countries of the Eurozone (-0.40%). It helps the ECB, which confirmed the continuation of the purchases of securities long after the end of the lockdown. The stock market in Italy accentuates the rise (+ 6.6% in July), but remains at compressed values (-18.6% from pre-Covid. In May in the Eurozone the first signs of recovery in activity, thanks to the easing of health constraints and reopenings: + 12.4% for industrial production and + 27.9% for construction, + 17.8% for retail trade, however, these are partial rebounds: still -19.2% per year in industry. In June, however, PMI indices improved further, in France above the neutral threshold (51.7). "Europe has launched the plan for the recovery of 750 billion: it is a historic agreement - underlines Confindustria Italy would have 208.8 billion, of which 81.4 billion in grants and 127.4 loans. 70% of the grants will have to be committed in 2021-2022, the rest by 2023. States must present plans containing reforms and investments; the Commission evaluates them, also on the basis of its recommendations ".
