Tokyo (AFP)

Tokyo soberly celebrates the start of the countdown to its Olympic Games, Thursday, one year to the day before their scheduled start and while the coronavirus pandemic, which has resulted in their postponement, sows doubt on their behavior.

The organizers have planned a modest celebration in the evening from which the general public will be excluded, as the Japanese capital faces a second wave of Covid-19.

How far away is the optimism of a year ago, when the Tokyo Games were yet to be held in the summer of 2020 and millions of enthusiastic Japanese flocked to the first tickets on sale.

Today, Japanese public opinion, fearing that the Olympic Games will spread the Covid-19 even further, mostly wants either a new postponement or a total cancellation of the event, according to several recent polls.

The organizers and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) have warned that a second postponement would be excluded, due to the huge logistical headache and the additional costs that this would imply.

If it is impossible to hold them next year, the Tokyo Olympics would therefore be canceled altogether, a first since World War II.

"Nobody knows what the world will look like in July and August (2021, Editor's note). This is why we must prepare for several scenarios" with the health of all participants as "priority", declared last week IOC boss Thomas Bach.

- Crucial need for a vaccine -

"These Olympics can be an important step for the whole world", as the first post-Covid planetary event, pleaded Mr. Bach, reluctant to the idea of ​​Olympics without spectators.

At the end of April, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe estimated that the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 would be the symbol of "humanity's victory over the coronavirus". But he immediately admitted that it would be difficult to organize them if this "victory" was not achieved by then.

The historic decision to postpone them for a year was taken at the end of March, as the coronavirus pandemic, which started in China, forced many countries to confine themselves and made it impossible to hold Olympic qualifications and the training of many athletes.

Restrictions have since been lifted or relaxed in Europe, but the coronavirus continues to wreak havoc in the United States, Brazil and India.

And in many parts of the world, the resurgence of the virus is prompting authorities to reintroduce restrictions, sometimes going as far as localized re-containments.

Therapeutic advances are multiplying, but obtaining an effective, safe and widely available vaccine before the summer of 2021 remains a very uncertain prospect.

However, having a vaccine or a treatment will be crucial to allow the Games to be held, estimated Wednesday the president of the organizing committee Yoshiro Mori.

"If the current situation continues, we will not be able" to organize the Games, added Mr. Mori.

- Reserved Olympic venues -

It is therefore difficult to be very optimistic about the likelihood of being able to kick off a sports high mass on July 23, 2021 in Tokyo, inviting millions of spectators and tens of thousands of athletes, coaches, officials, etc. members of the media and the organization.

Despite everything, the organizers are focusing on this goal, trying to solve one by one the colossal problems caused by the postponement of the Olympics.

A first important step was recently taken: all the Olympic venues initially planned for 2020 were able to be reserved for next year, which also made it possible to generally respect the initial calendar of the events.

Athletes can now "set concrete goals," said the sports director of the organizing committee, Koji Murofushi, last week.

But many other question marks remain, whether concerning the organizers' countermeasures in the face of the virus, the total cost of the postponement or the maintenance of the initial commitments of the sponsors.

In addition, the borders of Japan remain currently closed for nationals of 129 countries in order to protect themselves from the coronavirus. A particularly restrictive policy that also risks reducing the dimension of world celebration of the Olympics.

© 2020 AFP