Washington (AFP)
Italy suffered double the number of deaths compared to previous years during the worst month of the Covid-19 pandemic in March, according to a study published Monday which underlines the strong underestimation of mortality linked to the virus.
The country is not alone in having failed to fully account for the deaths of the new coronavirus; other analyzes have shown that Peru, the United States and Mexico City have largely undercounted the deaths of the Covid-19.
In New York, for example, the death toll tripled in the spring, but 22% of the additional deaths were not included among the official cases due to lack of tests.
To calculate the real balance sheet of the epidemic, demographers and other researchers do not rely solely on cases confirmed by a test, but use official statistics, from death certificates, and compare the total to previous years, a method usually used for influenza. The work published Monday by the American journal Jama Internal Medicine confirms the terrible toll of the virus in Italy, struck at the start of the European wave.
As of April 4, Italy said it had officially registered just over 15,000 Covid-19 deaths. Between March 1 and April 4, 41,329 people died in Italy, according to official Italian statistics a posteriori, against about 20,000 on average in the previous five years, an increase of 104.5% in mortality, found the researchers. This equates to more than 5,000 missing deaths.
The official Covid-19 deaths were only recorded at the time in hospitals and in a minority of retirement homes, which explains the underestimation of the Covid-19 deaths.
In the worst-hit region, Lombardy, excess mortality was 173% compared to previous years, and 213% for men in this region.
With generalized screening, it is possible to better count in real time the deaths of the epidemic. This is what happened in New York, where the gap between the official and actual balance sheets of the Covid-19 has almost completely disappeared.
© 2020 AFP