Stratfor said that the problem of filling the Renaissance Dam reservoir will worsen after the end of the rainy season, ruling out Cairo's resort to military action, given the situation in Libya.
Likewise, given the current situation in neighboring Libya, where the Turkish-backed National Accord government is preparing for an attack that could lead to Egyptian military intervention.
The site drew attention to the statement of the Ethiopian Water Minister that the recent heavy rains and the height of the dam wall caused the water level in Lake Khazan to rise automatically and quickly without the government taking direct measures.
Tension begins after October
The site pointed out that during the next three months from the rainy season until the end of October, the impact of reservoir mobilization on the flow of the Nile River system to Egypt will be mitigated, and he expected the tensions between Addis Ababa and Cairo to return again when the volume of water decreases after the rainy season.
However, Stratfor says, Egypt and Sudan will be able to keep the water flowing at its natural levels by managing their dams and reservoirs, but that will be at the expense of producing electricity.
He continues that many of the dams on the Nile River, especially the High Dam in Aswan, Upper Egypt, will enable the downstream countries to deal with the river flow declines temporarily by releasing additional water from their tanks and bypassing hydroelectric turbines (reducing energy production), and compensating for the lost volume during Fill the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and ensure seasonal flood patterns.
Does Ethiopia continue to be obstinate?
He added that the Ethiopian measures after the end of the current rainy season in next October will be more important in determining the possible response from Egypt.
He pointed out that the main question is whether Ethiopia will maintain the flows from the typical seasonal levels or whether it will limit the flow of the Nile River, especially as the outstanding issues related to long-term management of water flow during droughts or dealing with conflict mechanisms still need to be resolved.
Stratfor pointed out that Cairo has largely exhausted all possible options to confront Ethiopia's filling of the dam at any stage, and says that this means that Egypt will ultimately have no choice but to cooperate at least on technical issues to manage the water flow between the "opening" of the Aswan Dam Higher and "open" the Renaissance Dam.
The remaining options for Egypt
He expected that Egypt would try to reinforce its diplomatic position with Ethiopia's neighbors - after the failure of the American mediation, and the interventions of the African Union, the League of Arab States and the United Nations - such as Somaliland and Eritrea, although these moves have failed to change the behavior of Addis Ababa in the past and are unlikely to be the same. Effect now.
The website concluded its article that Egypt is not likely to resort to military action with the continuing tense situation in Libya, which may prompt it to intervene there.