The rumors of celestial phenomena are really "disasters"
Our reporter Zhao Hanbin
It is reported that Gengzi has many disasters and hardships. In the 180-year cycle, the sun, the earth, Jupiter, Saturn and the silver surface merge to a line to disturb the earth's gravitational field and magnetic field, resulting in frequent earthquakes and floods...
"Heavenly cycle, this year is the Gengzi year of the small cycle, and it is also the white year of the 180-year cycle. The sun, the earth, Jupiter, Saturn, and the silver surface have reached a line, which makes the earth's gravitational field and magnetic field disorder, and the solar wind ions. Fighting violently towards the earth, so disasters are still frequent, and the highest peak in the next few months..."
Recently, similar rumors are clamoring, "Earth's gravitational field, magnetic field disorder", "geological and climatic catastrophe" and so on Weibo, circle of friends and some short video platforms have a sense of presence. Does the seemingly "kind and scientific" reminder make sense? How to treat meteorological and earthquake disasters this year? Science and Technology Daily reporter invited astronomy experts and earthquake and disaster prevention and mitigation experts to answer your questions.
Jupiter and Saturn have a negligible effect on Earth
The National Space Weather Monitoring and Early Warning Center was established in my country to meet the needs of space weather early warning and monitoring. The monitoring system can collect and process data in real time and issue space weather reports, warnings and forecasts, providing observation data for my country’s satellite launch and scientific research departments.
The Science and Technology Daily reporter saw on the homepage of the National Satellite Meteorological Center-National Space Weather Monitoring and Early Warning Center website on July 16 that the space weather in the past 24 hours was summarized as "the solar activity level is extremely low, and no flare above class C." In the next 3 days, the level of solar activity will be extremely low, and the probability of a flare above class C will be low; geomagnetic activity will be calm to perturbation." No rumors have occurred.
"The sun is the master of the solar system, and the only decisive influence on the earth is the sun. The influence of Saturn and Jupiter is minimal, and the influence from the Milky Way is not worth mentioning." Lin Jun, a researcher at the Yunnan Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences who has been engaged in solar physics research for a long time Tell the Science and Technology Daily reporter that at present, the sun as a whole is in a very stable stage, and it will remain so for a long period of time in the future-about 5 billion years.
On the basis of the steady release of the overall energy, the sun will show obvious magnetic field activity about every 11 years. The specific performance is that there will be many sunspots on the surface, accompanied by the sudden release of intermittent energy, known as the solar explosion.
"For the earth with human activity, the consequences of the sun burst can sometimes be clearly felt, such as the interruption of short-wave radio communications, the burning of large substation equipment, and abnormal satellite operation." Lin Jun pointed out that from a long-term statistical results It can be seen that there is roughly a negative correlation between solar magnetic activity and earth disasters, that is, when solar activity is frequent, there are many sunspots on the surface, and when the explosion is intense, the weather on the earth is generally smooth and rainy, and the grains are abundant; the solar activity is infrequent and the sunspots on the surface are very When there are few or no sunspots and there is a clear lack of outbreaks, natural disasters on the planet will increase significantly.
The sun has entered a rare period of inactivity since 2007-2009 after the end of the previous active week. It was originally expected that during the last active week starting around 2012, there will be a few hundred days of no sunspots on the surface of the sun This state continues intermittently until now.
"The sun, with its members in the solar system, has basically been in the plane of the Milky Way, also known as the surface of the Milky Way, rotating around the center of the Milky Way. There is no problem that the gravitational field and the magnetic field are disturbed on a line. "Lin Jun said that the rotation and revolution of the earth and the movement of the sun around the center of the Milky Way are all natural harmony states that these celestial bodies have reached after billions of years of interaction and interplay. During this period, there will be some ups and downs, but at least for the foreseeable nearly 5 billion years, there will be no substantial changes.
Zheng Yongchun, a researcher at the National Astronomical Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that pulling two irrelevant facts together leads to a fallacy, which is a typical pseudo-science logic.
There is no correlation between the earthquake and the celestial phenomenon and the frequency of occurrence is currently within the normal range
At the Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province, Researcher Su Youjin, the director of the Forecast Center, heard the reporter’s intention and affirmed: "The cause of the earthquake is mainly caused by the structure and motion of the earth itself. There is no correlation between the occurrence of the earthquake and the astronomical phenomenon. As long as the earth is moving, it will continue There is an earthquake."
According to Su Youjin, the global average annual magnitude of earthquakes with a magnitude above 7.0 is about 18, and the frequency of half a year is about 9. Since January this year, a total of 6 occurrences have occurred, the frequency is slightly lower than the average annual activity level; There were 19 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and above. Although the frequency was slightly higher than the annual average activity level, it was still within the normal activity range. "Therefore, judging from the global scale and the mainland of China, the occurrence of earthquakes this year has remained within normal activity levels, and there is nothing special about it," Su Youjin said.
Globally, an average of about 10,000 earthquakes occur every day. "Earthquakes have non-uniform characteristics in terms of temporal and spatial distribution. It will be relatively frequent in a certain period of time and relatively few in a certain period of time." Su Youjin said that on July 12, this year, a magnitude 5.1 earthquake occurred in Tangshan, Hebei, Yunnan. There was a 4.4-magnitude earthquake in Luchun and a 4.2-magnitude earthquake in Ruoergai, Sichuan, which attracted much attention. "People have focused on whether there are too many earthquakes, but from the long-term observation results, they are basically within the normal range of earthquake occurrence in these areas." Su Youjin said that generally earthquakes below magnitude 5 will basically not cause damage.
In addition, some recent statements about the prediction of an earthquake at some time and place are not scientifically justified. In real life, someone "sees an earthquake cloud in the sky", or "who's animal has an abnormal reaction"... In fact, these so-called omens have no scientific basis, even if the current scientific technology of human beings has already grown Progress has been made, but it is still impossible to predict the occurrence of earthquakes in advance like the weather.
"From the perspective of active disaster prevention, the most important measures are scientific and reasonable site selection and building of houses in accordance with the standards of seismic fortification, especially in earthquake-prone areas and earthquake-prone areas, and knowledge of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction should be well publicized. This is the scientific and pragmatic approach." Su Youjin emphasized.
Precipitation is determined by atmospheric circulation and climate change and has no scientific basis to connect with celestial bodies
Since June, southern China has witnessed continuous heavy rainfall. Due to its wide range of impact, long duration, extreme extremes, and high local rainfall overlap, it has also caused heated discussions among netizens and blamed it on "abnormal sky phenomena." .
Researcher Wang Jiancheng from the Yunnan Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences told Sci-Tech Daily that, according to common sense, the cause of precipitation is more of atmospheric circulation and climate change. It is sometimes regular and sometimes irregular, but it links continuous rainfall and flood disasters with other solar systems and even the Milky Way. This is unscientific, and anyone with a little knowledge of physics will not believe this.
Throughout history, the frequency of the Yangtze River's floods is still the same, because the Yangtze River is in the east-west direction and is basically at the same latitude. If the upper, middle and lower reaches enter the flood season at the same time, the flood control pressure will increase sharply. This is the same situation this year. From July 4th to 10th, Yunnan, Chongqing, Guizhou to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River experienced the strongest rainfall since this year, and the pressure on Poyang Lake in Jiangxi is especially huge.
Li Na, director of the flood management and impact assessment research department of the Disaster Reduction Center of the Chinese Academy of Water Sciences, Ministry of Water Resources, said in an interview with the media that after the 1998 flood, my country has done several major projects and the Yangtze River's flood control capacity has been greatly improved. Focusing on the implementation of the "Ping embankment flooding, returning fields to lakes, resettling towns" project, the Yangtze River's flood storage capacity has increased; the Yangtze River main stream levee reinforcement and river dredging have greatly enhanced the flood discharge capacity; the Yangtze River trunk and tributaries have been built Many reservoirs with flood control functions have significantly improved their ability to regulate and store floods. The most important thing is the completion of the Three Gorges water conservancy project, whose flood control capacity has reached 22 billion cubic meters. At the same time, the coverage, accuracy and timeliness of the joint monitoring, forecasting and flood control of the Yangtze River Basin has also greatly improved compared with more than 20 years ago.
"If there is another major flood like 1998, the flood control system in the main stream of the Yangtze River is completely okay." Li Na said, but the Yangtze River traverses the east and west very long, and some tributaries and upstream mountain flood ditches are not high in flood control capacity. Floods in some areas cause losses The situation is hard to avoid.