Less than four months before the presidential election, all the signals are red for Donald Trump. Its popularity rating at its lowest, the coronavirus continues to decimate the United States and Joe Biden has 9 points ahead in the polls. Back to the wall, the American president replaced his campaign manager on Wednesday to try to revive himself. Will he lose by a tidal wave, as some people anticipate? It would be to quickly forget the general failure of 2012, with all the institutes and the media which promised victory to Hillary Clinton.
Trump in (very) bad position
According to the Gallup barometer, the popularity rating of Donald Trump lost 11 points between mid-May and the end of June, with only 38% of Americans satisfied. He returns to his lows of December 2017, when he exchanged insults on Twitter with Kim Jong-un.
The tenant of the White House seems particularly burdened by his management of the coronavirus crisis, criticized by two thirds of Americans. While he refused to establish national confinement and urged the governors to reopen their state as soon as possible, the Covid cases explode with nearly 60,000 new cases and 800 deaths daily. The toll, which approaches 140,000 dead, is bound to increase in the coming weeks. And even if the US economy showed encouraging signs in May, almost 25% of the population is currently receiving unemployment benefits, and the economic crisis deprives the American president of his best argument for his re-election. Opposite, Joe Biden is especially careful not to create controversy, and he currently has almost 9 points ahead of his rival, according to the average of polls from Real Clear Politics.
Pollsters have not fully learned the lessons of 2012
Predicting an election in the United States is more complex than in France. The Americans do not vote by direct universal suffrage but via the electoral college, with a battle State by State. In 2016, the last national polls gave Hillary Clinton a 3-point lead. In the end, it won the popular vote by 48% against 46% but Donald Trump won by a hair half a dozen crucial states. And while the national polls are generally fairly reliable, the regional studies experienced major failures in their sample levels.
"In several states, polls have proportionately polled too many qualified voters and have incorrectly adjusted their samples," notes Courtney Kennedy, director of studies at the Pew Research Institute. A failure all the more problematic that within the white population without a university degree, Donald Trump was ahead of Hillary Clinton by 40 points. This year, some pollsters have adjusted, but "many institutes have not done so," especially the smaller ones, according to Courtney Kennedy. The American president is trying to mobilize his base and regularly assures on Twitter that the “silent majority” - a reference to Richard Nixon - will prevail.
Everything can change very quickly
Hillary Clinton had up to 20 points ahead of Trump in the spring of 2016 and was 8 points ahead of her three weeks before the election. But the Democrat lost her lead in the final stretch, especially after the announcement of the reopening of an investigation into her emails. Joe Biden, he is the king of the blunder, and he had a very difficult primary which almost left him on the floor after disastrous televised debates and slaps during the first elections.
By November 3, the gap will inevitably fluctuate, especially this year. In just six months, we had the impeachment of Donald Trump, the coronavirus pandemic and anti-racist protests after the death of George Floyd. What will the next three months look like? Can Trump shake Biden during the debates? What impact will coronavirus have on participation if a second wave sweeps across the country? Michigan elected Democrat Elissa Slotkin warned her colleagues this week: "Trump's voters are under counted. It is important not to believe that the election is over. If 2020 has taught us one thing, it is that we cannot predict anything. "
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