How London plays Washington by dropping Huawei

London no longer wants Huawei. The United Kingdom announced on Tuesday July 15 that it would not use the Chinese electronics giant's equipment for its future 5G network. More specifically, that he would no longer order from Huawei and would ask the British telecom operators who had already bought equipment from the Chinese group to get rid of it before 2027.

"This is a major reversal compared to the decision taken in January to allow Huawei to have restricted access to the British 5G network," recalls Mary-Françoise Renard, director of the Research Institute for Chinese Economy (Idrec ), contacted by France 24. 

The end of a 20-year idyll

A decision that enraged Beijing. Liu Xiaoming, the Chinese ambassador to London, reacted strongly to this about-face, describing the British government's decision as "bad and disappointing". Chinese authorities have warned the UK that it would expect "consequences" if it decided to treat China as a "hostile partner".

The slap inflicted on Huawei is, in fact, all the greater since "for a long time, it was said that the United Kingdom could become the bridgehead for the Chinese giant in Europe", underlines Mary-Françoise Renard. 

The group has cultivated good relations with the British authorities for almost twenty years. It has invested heavily in the country, notably building one of its main research and development centers outside of China, in Cambridge.

Long-term work that should allow Beijing to make the United Kingdom, "the showcase of Chinese technological know-how", explained in 2019 to France 24 Jean-François Dufour, director of the consultancy firm DCA Chine Analyze. The Chinese authorities hoped that if a great power like the United Kingdom - and moreover one of Washington's main allies - could trust Huawei and "made in China" in general, it would reduce the distrust of others nations with regard to Beijing.

Donald Trump 1 - Beijing 0

Efforts and hopes that have just been almost wiped out by Boris Johnson. This strategic shift reflects, in part, the recent deterioration in Sino-British relations. The Hong Kong crisis went through there. The United Kingdom was among the first countries to have the strongest condemnation of Beijing's political takeover of the semi-autonomous territory, and former British colony. 

In response to the introduction of a controversial national security law in Hong Kong, the British Prime Minister announced in early June that he would consider issuing "millions of passports" to Hong Kong residents wishing to leave the city. .

But more than a desire to punish Beijing, through Huawei, for its Hong Kong maneuvers, London would have above all "acted out of fear of Washington", estimates the director of Idrec, Mary-Françoise Renard. US President Donald Trump, who has made Huawei his number one public enemy, has stepped up sanctions against those who collaborate with a company perceived in the United States as a "threat to national security". 

Since May 2020, all companies that use American technology "to design or produce chips for Huawei" can be sanctioned by the United States. This is a major problem for the Chinese giant: to develop its 5G equipment, it traditionally calls on the know-how of American companies specializing in the automation of chip manufacturing processes. Huawei may try to find alternatives, but nothing guarantees the same level of quality.

It is this uncertainty about Huawei's ability to rebound that the British government has invoked to justify its change of attitude. The sanctions "really made a difference, because now they force Huawei to produce everything in China, which makes the process even more opaque," said Robert Hannigan, the former British director of electronic intelligence, interviewed by the BBC.

Risk of contagion

In other words, Huawei's defeat is an important victory for Donald Trump's all-out sanctions strategy. The American president seems to have finally found weakness in the armor of the Chinese giant who has tipped long-standing support for the Chinese group into his camp. He hastened, Tuesday, to applaud the decision of London which is, in his eyes, the proof that he succeeds "in convincing more and more countries of the threat which" represents the Chinese consortium. 

China may indeed fear a contagion across Europe of the British decision. "It is certain that if the country with which Beijing had the best relations says 'no', there is a risk that it will push other European states to follow this example", recognizes Mary-Françoise Renard. 

And Huawei's fate hangs by a thread in many countries. In Germany for example, Chancellor Angela Merkel still resisted, at the beginning of the year, the pressure of her party, the CDU, which wants to kick the Chinese group out of the national 5G network. In France, Paris does not want to completely prohibit Huawei from participating in the development of 5G, but the government supports operators who prefer to do without it…

Hence the strong Chinese reaction. Beijing cannot afford to give the impression that abandoning its telecoms flagship in the open country has no consequences. "The way you treat Huawei will be closely followed by other Chinese groups," said ambassador Liu Xiaoming. One way of suggesting that certain investments - such as the participation of China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) in the Hinckley Point nuclear power plant - could be called into question.

But the Chinese room for maneuver is narrow, says Mary-Françoise Renard. Beijing is already engaged in an expensive trade war with Washington. Any retaliatory measures against London could provoke a European reaction. The question is whether in the eyes of China, support for Huawei justifies the opening of a new front in Europe.

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