- Emmanuel Macron had so far refused the traditional July 14 interview, imposed by Valéry Giscard d'Estaing.
- But this year, he will answer questions from two journalists in a particularly tense context.
- Health crisis, political crisis with the bust of LREM in the municipal elections and record abstention, economic and social crisis with exploding inequalities ... The president has a lot to do to win back public opinion if he wants to hope to run for 2022.
He had always refused to comply with the traditional July 14 interview. But 2020 is nothing like an ordinary year. It is in an unprecedented crisis that Emmanuel Macron will speak on Tuesday. Not to deliver a solemn speech as he did on March 12, 16, 25, then April 13 and June 14. But to answer questions from two journalists, Léa Salamé and Gilles Bouleau, on TF1, France 2 and France Inter at 1:10 p.m. A high risk intervention for the Head of State.
Less vertical communication?
This choice of an interview, no doubt more perilous, can be explained for reasons of communication. "He realized that the solemn speeches took people a little high, the formula of the interview is more direct, it allows him to appear as closer to people, reactive, open to discussion", underlines Nicolas Tenzer, political scientist and teacher at Sciences Po. Second reason, more symbolic, "July 14, deprived of parade, it is all the same a solemn occasion, the national holiday, it is the right time to bend to this exercise. "
And an opportunity to set a course for the remaining two years. Because the president is already aiming for the follow-up: his candidacy for the presidential election of 2022. "He wishes to regain the confidence of the French, analyzes Nicolas Tenzer. He often said that he had changed. Now we need to transform these words into new credibility. He knows he has a lot of ground to reclaim. "
Reassuring in the face of a triple crisis
For this, he will have to reassure in the face of a triple crisis: health, which leads to an economic crisis and which is part of a political crisis. “We are emerging from a serious health crisis, where the functioning of the State has been called into question, from a series of violent social conflicts with the Yellow Vests, then the social movement against pension reform, which are not 'elsewhere not finished, says Luc Rouban, director of research at the CNRS and Cevipof. The challenge for Emmanuel Macron is to make this July 14 a moment of national union. We also see in the appointment of Prime Minister Jean Castex, who declares himself a social Gaullist, the desire for a return from the State. "
At a time when the president seems weak. "Macron did not take advantage of the health crisis while Angela Merkel and Boris Johnson saw their confidence rating increase," notes the political scientist. "Merkel's communication was simple, precise, technical when Macron was more emphatic," says Nicolas Tenzer. Maybe he wants to be more pragmatic with this interview. "
Proof that the head of state wants to regain control: his new Prime Minister, unknown, will have to wait for the president's interview before making his general policy statement on July 15. And Luc Rouban to compare the current situation to that of the country at the end of the Second World War. “There was a national humiliation. We were always told "France does not sell luxury cars, democracy is concentrated on the Elysée, but we have the best health system in the world!" We realized that Germany was doing better than us during the Covid. As in 1940, we saw completely overwhelmed staffs, Agnes Buzyn who fled when the epidemic broke out… ”
Another fragility: Emmanuel Macron did not surf on the municipal to anchor his new party in the territories: maximum abstention, undressed LREM and green wave oblige him to green his program.
Many topics on the carpet
The president therefore has a lot of work to do to regain the confidence of the French. He will have to prepare the country for the coming economic crisis. "What people expect today are credible measures on how to restart the economy," warns Nicolas Tenzer. This is where the 2022 presidential election will play out. He must position himself as the man capable of avoiding economic catastrophe. Bruno Le Maire assured that there would be announcements on youth employment.
The top priority in the recovery plan is employment. The priority of priorities is the employment of young people. The President of the Republic and the Prime Minister will announce this week a massive, effective and immediate plan which will be effective from September. #RTLMatin pic.twitter.com/8pdZNApv32
- Bruno Le Maire (@BrunoLeMaire) July 13, 2020"Given the economic difficulties and debt, we can expect considerable public budget cuts, warns Luc Rouban. Which is dangerous. We will have to put an end to potential social conflicts. His problem will be to avoid a generalized social explosion which can put him in difficulty for 2022. ”
A balancing act
On four subjects (at least), the president will undoubtedly have to play late. "We are a bit at a crossroads," summarizes Luc Rouban. By bringing into his government former Sarkozysts, Bachelot, Castex, he is in the process of vampirizing the business of the Republicans. But it is reneging on its 2017 objectives to go beyond the left-right divide. And it will be complex to carry with a right-wing government a priority given to the environment. "
"He will have to reinvent another" at the same time ", quips Nicolas Tenzer. Reconcile the interventionism necessary to face the social crisis, without avoiding the structural reforms of the economy of its program, in particular pensions. "
The other subject on which he is going to need dexterity is the question of women. He had made gender equality the main cause of his five-year term. But with an interior minister suspected of rape and feminist demonstrations all over France since his appointment, he may have to justify this choice…
"It's a real problem," says Luc Rouban. There was the Benalla affair, the De Rugy affair, the Griveaux affair, now the Darmanin affair… They give the impression that the revival is not here and that the Macron team is made up of people little regard for their practices, few examples. Which feeds populism. "
But Macron could also look outside our borders to build up its aura. Especially speaking of Europe, relocation and the recovery plan of 750 billion euros. Registering in opposition to the Europhobic National Rally. "The Covid epidemic has shown how dependent we are on China," says Nicolas Tenzer. It must not give the feeling of letting go of Russia and China, dictatorships which are a direct threat to us. "
Finally, the fourth very sensitive subject, health. This Monday was signed the Ségur de la Santé, which provides for an envelope of 7.5 billion euros. But this protocol only convinces half the number of caregivers, who hoped to arrive at a monthly increase of 300 euros net and are not satisfied with a revaluation of 180 euros. The president wanted to pay tribute to these caregivers in the July 14 parade. He finds himself that same Tuesday with a demonstration of caregivers in Paris and in the region. A thorn in the side of one who wants to land as a unifier. "The crisis has revealed social fractures in France," explains Luc Rouban. We saw those who were exposed, immigrants, people of modest origins, nursing assistants ... On the other side, the protected people who could telecommute. A split found among civil servants. The base sacrifices itself, the nurses, the police, the teachers while the top writes reports with little knowledge of the terrain. A disconnection between elites and little hands, sometimes even a contempt that could be criticized for Emmanuel Macron.
Politics
July 14: Emmanuel Macron will give a live TV interview on TF1 and France 2
Paris
14-July: A national holiday under high health protection in the capital
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- July 14th
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