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11 July 2020Rates, rules for the concession and, in cascade, the value of the company. These are just some of the variables in the complex game that revolves around Aspi and the management of 3 thousand kilometers of motorways in Italy. A game in which the Australian fund Macquarie would also be interested in playing a role, even in the foreground. Time is running out for a solution. The government has confirmed the ultimatum to the Benetton group company and is waiting for a new "win-win" proposal today, to be brought to the Council of Ministers' consideration this week, probably Tuesday. The boards of directors of both Autostrade per l'Italia and the parent company Atlantia are alerted.

Maintaining control of Aspi is no longer a preliminary ruling, and the group would be dealing with the conditions of the disengagement that the 5 Star Movement would like to have. According to some rumors by Reuters, the board of Atlantia has given a mandate to the CEO to make a proposal to dilute in Aspi below 50%. A change in the corporate structure that would allow the entry of new members more 'welcome' to the executive. There has been talk of Cdp or the F2I infrastructure fund. 

Among the hypotheses there is also that of a drop below 30%, assuming a capital increase that would allow to dilute the shares of Atlantia - which today holds 88% - and consequently of the Benettons, which of Atlantia are shareholders of reference with 30% and are since the collapse of the Morandi Bridge in the sights of the 5S. The company is obviously interested in finding a compromise that safeguards Aspi, aware that the alternative of the revocation is now no longer a taboo even in the more moderate wing of the majority of government. Of course, the issue of the price is all to be solved and, for the holding company, one of the crucial issues remains that of sterilizing or exceeding the rules of the Milleproroghe decree, which paved the way for the hypothesis of revocation and cost Aspi the junk rating, which no longer allows the motorway concessionaire to finance itself. The other goal is to find a drop point between investments, tariffs and penalties to ensure that the company maintains its economic, financial and equity balance. The 2.9 billion plan drawn up in March was rejected by the executive which would have asked, as the basis for the negotiation, to adjust the tariffs to that established by the Transport Authority (with remuneration for the investments made) and consequent reduction of tolls by 5-10% and at least 2 billion in damages.

In the scheme of the agreement there could also be indirect intervention by the State through a consortium led by Cdp, which could make a debt conversion operation, which could be supported by other funds: already in the past there has been talk of F2i but also of Australians, particularly active in our country in the last period (for example also interested in Enel's share of Openfiber). Even in this case, however, the issues would be the price and the stability of the regulatory framework linked to the concession.In this case, the State would assume the role of 'arbiter' of the operation, even if some doubts remain about the opportunity of involvement of a foreign fund in such a strategic sector.