The interests of some countries allied to the Libyan parties began to become clear after the National Oil Corporation announced negotiations between the National Accord government and the regional states behind the closure of oil facilities, the main source of income for Libya.
The parties and their external allies seek to compete for oil revenues, a file whose fate will be clear, before the oil pumps resume their work after they were suspended because of the force majeure.
A report published by the American OilPrice website by Charles Kennedy says that for the first time in seven years, there appears to be light at the end of the Libyan tunnel, but in light of the open talks and the back channels of communication that the allies negotiate at home and abroad, it seems that discrimination Between facts and rumors and aspirations has become complicated.
The author affirms that the clear thing so far is that everyone is competing for influence, as the National Accord government does not have enough power to make decisions despite the military gains it achieved in and around Tripoli against Haftar's forces.
Now that Egypt has also decided to intervene in the Libyan arena and draw a red line before Sirte, which is the strategic gateway to oil facilities in Libya, it seems that the assumptions of negotiating oil revenues are beginning to become clear.
Control the oil
The writer explains that Hifter controls oil but does not control the revenue, and if the right balance in power is now achieved in a manner that allows for the way forward in the talks, this will lead to the restarting of the pumps in exchange for a different distribution of oil revenues.
These revenues go to the Libyan Central Bank, which Haftar has no control over, and behind the scenes talks are underway to divide these revenues before they arrive in Tripoli.
The author notes that a report in the British Guardian newspaper had talked about the existence of proposals to divide the oil money into three banks representing three Libyan regions, with a pledge not to use them for military purposes, and the tribal leaders are now being consulted on these plans.
This narration of what is happening in the Libyan arena began to spread in a number of media, and the Libyan Petroleum Corporation, which is a neutral source among these developments, expressed its opposition to this scenario and denied the existence of talks to divide the revenues in the aforementioned manner.
Therefore, this corporation asserts that all oil revenues will continue to be deposited in the same accounts of the corporation while keeping them for a certain period during which other parallel paths are launched, in other words, the oil revenues will be dealt with differently.
The author believes that any solution related to oil revenues must be structured and formulated in a very cautious manner in order to avoid the biggest concerns of the Libyan Oil Corporation, which is that the exploitation of Libyan installations as political capital continues, exposing these sites to a continuous risk.
These concerns become more evident with the arrival of Russian mercenaries in the fields of Al-Sharara and Elephant to assist retired Major General Khalifa Hifter, a move by this brigade to tighten its grip and aims to prevent the Libyan Petroleum Corporation from resuming production until an agreement is reached in its favor.
Libyan oil negotiations
Oil in Libya constitutes about 94% of the country's resources, and the National Accord government controls oil revenues. Countries pay oil money to Libya through accounts in the Libyan Foreign Bank of the Central Bank of Libya in Tripoli, then the executive bodies represented in the reconciliation government spend the money on the state's general budget lines on All regions of Libya, including those under Haftar's control.
The force majeure situation in oil installations continues due to the closure of Haftar oil fields and ports, as Libya's losses due to this closure amounted to more than 6 billion and 500 million dollars after 171 days of closure.
The American Embassy in Libya announced that the economic experts of the International Follow-up Committee on Libya - after a meeting sponsored by the embassy and the United Nations Mission - confirmed the full support of the National Oil Corporation and is lifting the force majeure for oil production to resume its vital work on behalf of the Libyans.
A member of the Information Office of the Oil Syndicate, Louay Daoud, said that it is too early to talk about the end of the conflict over the Libyan oil revenues after the end of the current negotiations, where indicators indicate further escalation.
And David added that "the countries that benefit from the oil closure are the same countries that compensated for Libya's absent share in the global market, and it is in their interest to continue the unrest in Libya to achieve the greatest amount of gains."
Daoud told Al-Jazeera Net that any external interference in the structure of the oil sector or its revenues allows a new intervention in the future, which violates Libyan sovereignty, leading to instability in the energy sector in the country.
He believes that the stability of the energy sector in Libya is closely linked to the stability of the country, which seems far-fetched at the present time, even if oil pumps are returned to production in the coming days.
inner struggle
In turn, a member of the House of Representatives in Tobruk, Ziyad Dghaim, denied that the conflict was international over Libyan oil revenues, and told Al-Jazeera Net, "We agreed to re-export and produce oil, provided that the oil revenues are placed in a frozen account, away from the Al-Wefaq government until the formation of a national unity for all Libyans." ".
And Deghem considered that the struggle over Libyan internal oil revenues is linked to the form of the state and the political and administrative system and its economic reflection on the Libyan citizen and cities.
He also stated that oil is currently a political pressure card for the upcoming negotiations, saying, "If the Al-Wefaq government and its ally Turkey control oil revenues, any hope for any political settlement or serious dialogue" will end in the future .
Worsening crisis
For his part, the economic analyst, Wahid Al-Jibo, stressed that the continued closure of oil installations exacerbates the crisis of the national economy and directly affects the lives of citizens, especially after the economic effects of the Corona virus outbreak in the country.
He continued in his statement to Al-Jazeera Net, "If the oil closure continues, it will lead to a deficit in public revenues, a rise in the price of the dollar against the Libyan dinar, and a lack of liquidity in commercial banks, as happened in previous years, which leads to the inability of the reconciliation government to pay the salaries of workers in the state and spend on budget items the public".
Al-Jibo believes that the current solutions are not feasible to tackle the crisis of the local and international conflict over the oil sector, noting that the final solution is to install new political bodies elected by the people to prevent further external interference from regional countries in the institutions of the Libyan state.