The death of Amadou Gon Coulibaly shuffles the presidential cards in Côte d'Ivoire

"Côte d'Ivoire is in mourning and Alassane Ouattara's party is an orphan," explains Thaïs Brouck, France 24 correspondent in Abidjan, the day after the death of the Ivorian Prime Minister and candidate of the ruling party in the election. Presidential, Amadou Gon Coulibaly.  

Died Wednesday July 8 in Abidjan at the age of 61, the consequences of heart problems, the one who campaigned for the October 31 poll, leaves a huge void in the Ivorian political landscape. And a vacant seat. After the shock of his death, everyone has one question: who will represent Alassane Ouattara's party in the presidential election? 

>> See: Special edition: the death of Amadou Gon Coulibaly, political earthquake in Côte d'Ivoire  

No plan B

A few days after announcing last March that he would not seek a third term, Alassane Ouattara, who spoke of the loss of a "son" and a "younger brother", had designated his "closest collaborator" for thirty years "as his successor and candidate for the ruling party. But the death of this favorite reshuffles the cards.

Time is running out: applications must be submitted at the end of July. "However, there seems to be no plan B within the Rassemblement des houphouëtistes pour la democratie et la paix [RHDP]," continues Thaïs Brouck. "So far, no name has been advanced." 

After the brutal death of Prime Minister Amadou Gon #Coulibaly, dolphin designated for the presidential election on October 31, what will Alassane #Ouattara do? Find another candidate or finally go there himself for a third term? # CIV225 # CôtedIvoire

The candidacy of Amadou Gon Coulibaly, imposed by Alassane Ouattara, was not unanimous within his own camp. This choice had cringe, some criticizing his authoritarianism or his lack of charisma. Others were already talking about his health problems. Several executives of the Alassane Ouattara coalition, including former ministers Marcel Amon Tanoh or Albert Mabri Toikeusse, had proposed their candidacy. Sanctioned in the name of internal discipline, they have been excluded from the spheres of power and it seems difficult today to recall them.  

The return of Alassane Ouattara 

In this context, some observers suggest that Alassane Ouattara could renege on his promise not to run for a third term. "It is quite possible that he will reverse his decision, said Sylvain N'Guessan, political analyst at the Strategic Institute of Abidjan, on the antenna of France 24, since he has always left a window open. If [his opponent] Laurent Gbagbo came back, he would also find it perfectly normal to come back to the fore too. The return of Alassane Ouattara could cause dissatisfaction in the opposition. things, I don't think Ivorians are ready to take to the streets. "  

No doubt those who urged the president to run for a third term will relaunch their request. If this is the case, "the opposition would do everything possible to prevent it by appealing to the Constitutional Court", judge Thaïs Brouck.  

Would the Constitution allow Alassane Ouattara to run for a third term? "This question has greatly fueled the discussions of constitutionalists in Côte d'Ivoire, replies Sylvain N'Guessan. Some believe that, since the new Constitution of December 2016 did not call into question his election in October 2015, these mandates have already been taken into account. In this case, Alassane Ouattara would no longer have the right to stand for re-election. Others believe, on the contrary, that with a new Constitution, the counters will be reset and that Alassane Ouattara can to run for a new mandate. The context is quite complex. We must let the institutions in charge of the Constitution decide. " 

Other possible candidates

In the meantime, names are already circulating. In particular that of the Minister of Defense Hamed Bakayoko, known as "Hambak". A source close to the presidency, Alassane Ouattara was openly opposed to it a few months ago. "Officially, Hamed Bakayoko has indicated that he is not interested at the moment. But the context is working in his favor and he could be interested," says Sylvain N'Guessan.  

Other members of the presidential party could also join the ranks. "At the RHDP level, there are other executives who have not been in the spotlight lately, said the Ivorian political scientist. I am thinking of Vice-President Daniel Kablan Duncan, the Secretary General of the Ivorian presidency Patrick Achi or Minister Mariatou Koné. All these people did not have the chance to be put forward, but in the current context, these names could do the trick of the RHDP insofar as the head of none surpasses that of the others. Anyway, the party has what it takes to find a candidate to campaign honorably and make a very good score against the declared candidate of the PDCI [Democratic Party of Côte d'Ivoire]. "  

"The shock of the pachyderms" 

The nominated candidate will find himself facing Henri Konan Bédié, 86, of the PDCI and the candidate of the other major opposition party, the Front populaire ivoirien (FPI). Its founder, ex-president Laurent Gbagbo (in power from 2000 to 2010) has been on parole since his acquittal by the International Criminal Court, and his return to Côte d'Ivoire is uncertain. No young person emerged during his absence and some also discuss his candidacy. It would be in a way the remake of the presidential election of 2010 which had led to a violent post-electoral crisis of several months, causing 3,000 deaths. 

If Alassane Ouattara, Laurent Gbagbo, and Henri Konan Bédié found themselves fighting a new battle, it is possible that we are "once again witnessing a clash of pachyderms of Ivorian political fauna, mocks L'Observateur Paalga, daily Information from Burkina Faso, not to say dinosaurs, who must have had the wisdom to assert their retirement rights. "

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