Paris (AFP)

The recession should be 9% this year in France, according to INSEE, which was on Wednesday a little more optimistic than the government and notes that "the French economy has recovered quite clearly" after two months of deconfinement .

The government, for its part, anticipates a fall in gross domestic product of 11% and the Banque de France by 10%.

"In June, economic activity would have closed three-fifths of the gap that separated it, at the bottom of containment, from its pre-crisis level", rejoices the National Institute of Statistics in its seventh economic outlook since the end of March.

He also notes that "household consumption would be only 3 percentage points from its normal level", while households have accumulated very significant additional savings during the eight weeks of confinement and only a question of recovery is whether they will spend it or keep it in reserve.

After contracting by 5.3% in the first quarter and then by 17% in the second due to the coronavirus pandemic, the GDP would rebound by 19% in the third quarter then by 3% in the fourth, specifies the INSEE, which makes its first forecasts beyond June.

"At the end of 2020, economic activity would remain slightly below its pre-crisis level", estimates INSEE, in a range between -6% and -1%, depending on the scenarios, with an average of -4% .

"The production outlook is recovering very clearly: the strength of this rebound is very much due to the weakness of the starting point, that is to say economic activity in a period of containment," according to the note.

"However, the order books, particularly internationally, remain deemed to be underfilled by industrial companies, which does not augur an immediate return to normal," tempers the institute.

Also, with exports down 36% over one year for the month of May, France's foreign trade "remains more degraded in May than national production in the recovery phase".

- "Not free" -

Consumption benefits from a catch-up effect after confinement on manufactured products, but this effect does not extend to all products, clothing for example suffering at the end of June from a high base of comparison when the sales had already started in 2019 and are shifted this year.

As for services, some continue to suffer like air transport.

Thanks to the measures taken during the eight weeks of confinement to preserve the economic fabric and employment, "the first steps of the recovery could have been climbed quite quickly, perhaps more than expected. These are the last that are likely to be the most difficult, especially concerning the sectors most affected by the crisis, "warns INSEE.

The Minister of Economy Bruno Le Maire painted a dark portrait on Monday of the coming months, especially for the "little ones", warning that it is "an overwhelming task" that awaits him.

And even if it ultimately only reaches 9%, it will be "the strongest recession since the creation of the French national accounts in 1948", indicates the note from INSEE.

But for its director general Jean-Luc Tavernier, if we "can already anticipate that the order of magnitude of the drop in GDP in 2020 could be ten points, or even a little less", "it is absurd to say that we would therefore have gone back ten years. "

"Because this fall in annual average is of course mainly linked to the fall experienced during the months of confinement. If the economy does not emerge unscathed, it is likely that it will return in the coming months to a closer level of the one that prevailed before confinement, "said Tavernier.

© 2020 AFP