In the US presidential election in November, it was predicted that it would be impossible for President Donald Trump to reverse the current gap in approval ratings.

CNN broadcasted on the 5th (local time) that the current presidential election for the past presidential election since 1940 analyzed the trend, and reported that no candidate with a 50% approval rating was ever defeated four months before the final. I did.

In particular, there has never been a reversal of candidates behind the larger gap than President Trump.

First, CNN used the latest polls from Monmouth University, where President Trump (41%) lags former Vice President Joe Biden (53%) by 12 percentage points.

For President Trump, 10% points behind the competition candidates in the 1948 presidential election, but the final model is the former President Harry Truman, who won 5% more votes in the final.

However, Thomas Dewey's approval rating, which was reversed by former President Truman, was less than 50 percent.

It is a story that is difficult to compare directly with former Vice President Biden, who has over 50% approval rating.

Of course, there have been cases where the approval rate of more than 20 percentage points narrowed in a short period of time.

In 1964, former President Lyndon Johnson was polled four months before the presidential election, overcoming rival Barry Goldwater's candidate by more than 56 percent.

In the finals, Goldwater narrowed the gap with former President Johnson to 23 percentage points, but could not reverse the results.

If the polls and the results of the presidential election were different four months ago, the gap between the candidates was not large.

The median gap in support rates that allowed reversal was only 4.5%.

It turns out that flipping the two-digit gap is not impossible if you have enough time.

Ronald Reagan, who lost two digits to former President Jimmy Carter during the 1980 presidential election, advanced by more than 11 percentage points in July and easily won the final.

However, CNN also admitted that it could be difficult to directly compare with the past presidential election as changes occurred, such as the Republican and Democratic Party schedules being delayed due to the unprecedented situation of Corona 19.

"The President Trump can close the gap or win," CNN said.