Increasingly negative refugee opinion puts pressure on the parties

Already in the coming week, an agreement can be made on migration policy. But it is far from certain that the parties reach a settlement.

The issue holds great material political contradictions and not least the government is deeply divided. The Social Democrats want to reduce asylum reception, preferably through a settlement in Parliament with the Moderates, while the Environment Party wants to return to a more generous refugee policy.

Over the past week, the Environmental Party has even threatened to crack down on the government if they do not have an impact on their demands.

However, the fact that the Social Democrats in the current state of opinion would give in to the pressure of the Environmental Party can be dangerous for Stefan Löfven and his party mates. A large party must be something so when in tune with the voter opinion on the most important political issues.

The SVT / Novus survey on the state of opinion in the migration issue puts further pressure on the Social Democrats. An increasing number of voters want Sweden to receive fewer asylum seekers and a majority of the respondents want Sweden to receive a maximum of 20,000 a year. The largest group in the SVT / Novus survey wants a ceiling for the refugee reception of a maximum of 10,000 people.

The SVT / Novus survey shows that there has been a significant sharpening of the voter opinion on the refugee issue in the past two years. Today, 63 percent (+7) of voters want Sweden to receive fewer refugees, while only 8 percent (-4) want Sweden to receive more. The group that wants Sweden to receive as many as today is 19 percent (-3).

There are several explanations for this change of opinion. Many voters obviously believe that Sweden has received too many asylum seekers in recent years. The refugee crisis in 2015 is still in fresh memory and at the same time integration is perceived as inadequate. The crime is also likely to be included in this context. One of the main messages of the Swedish Democrats has been to link crime with immigration.

Opinion within the various parliamentary parties differs greatly. Several parties are divided internally, including the Social Democrats, but also among the Social Democratic sympathizers, opinion on the refugee issue has sharpened in the last two years.

At the moment negotiations are under way on a new migration policy between the parliamentary parties. Expect the Swedish Democrats to jump off before a settlement is complete. The party has no interest in participating in a compromise product on its most important political profile issue.

What other parties can reach a settlement is still unclear. The Social Democrats prefer to settle with the four bourgeois parties without simultaneously cracking the government. How it should go is still obscured.

In recent years, the Social Democrats' refugee policy has gradually shifted in an increasingly restrictive direction. In office, however, compromise has been forced with the Environment Party, which has created ambiguity about where the party is at issue.

Whether the Moderates are willing to run the line and settle with the Social Democrats is uncertain. There is a value to the Moderates in making up and getting the issue, at least partially, disarmed. Neither have the Moderates benefited from the fact that the issue of migration has been in constant focus in recent years.

At the same time, a settlement involves risks for the Moderates. The party runs the risk of being harshly criticized by the Swedish Democrats if a settlement in the Riksdag is perceived as too diluted.

The issue may be decided in the coming days, either through a settlement or by the negotiations in Parliament. A third alternative is that the Migration Committee is given extended time to complete its work.

The Center Party and the Liberals want a broad settlement in the Riksdag, which also includes the Moderates. In essence, they are prepared to compromise heavily to achieve just that. They do not want a settlement that requires the support of the Environmental Party and the Left Party.

If the Moderates are actually prepared to settle, the decisive question will be how the Environmental Party ultimately chooses to act. The party can trigger a government crisis by leaving the government. The two language tubes prefer to avoid this, but are obviously overrun by a strong internal party opinion.

Thus, for Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, the difficult challenge is to negotiate a broad and credible migration policy settlement in the Riksdag without simultaneously cracking down on the government and triggering a government crisis. And it doesn't seem to be a simple task.