As the reshuffle approaches, the dilemma Édouard Philippe

A reshuffle, yes, but with or without Edouard Philippe at the head of the future government? Emmanuel Macron, who receives his Prime Minister's dinner on Wednesday, July 1, has been pondering for several weeks already and despite turning the problem upside down, no solution seems to impose itself.

He who wishes to make ecology and social issues strong in the last two years of his quinquennium struggles to convince. Changing Prime Minister to mark a clear and clean break could seem obvious. Except that after three years full of crises, Emmanuel Macron can today hardly do without Edouard Philippe.

>> To read: Municipal 2020: after the green wave, the return of the left in the foreground?

How, in fact, to dismiss a man who, during a catastrophic election night for La République en Marche (LREM), was re-elected mayor of Le Havre with 58.83% of the vote? And how can it be replaced when 55% of French people want it to continue its action at the head of the government, according to a Harris Interactive poll published on June 28?

After more than three months of health crisis linked to the Covid-19 pandemic, a majority of French people give credit to Édouard Philippe for his management. "He gives the feeling of having been an educator, of having taken his time, of being rather attentive, while seeking as much as possible to share with the French the way he reflected", analyzes Jean-Daniel Lévy , Director of the Policy and Opinion Department at Harris Interactive, contacted by France 24.

>> Read: Tensions between Emmanuel Macron and Édouard Philippe: a classic from the Fifth Republic

"As always with a Prime Minister, his popularity is also explained in reverse mirror of what could be Emmanuel Macron, adds the pollster. However, during the crisis, and unlike Edouard Philippe, the president was able to give the impression of 'to be sometimes removed from the reality of the French and rather had a top-down communication. "

Prime Minister appreciated by his majority

Very aware of the functioning of the State and the coordination between the executive and the Parliament, Édouard Philippe also knows how to navigate within institutions he knows by heart. Unlike some of his predecessors, he held his majority relatively well in the National Assembly and was able to weather crises without ever losing the confidence of his deputies. The LREM group has certainly suffered departures since 2017, notably losing in May the absolute majority at the Palais Bourbon, but always as a result of political disagreements and not due to personal disputes.

"Édouard Philippe has a very good image with the majority deputies, confirms Sonia Krimi, LREM deputy from La Manche, contacted by France 24. There can sometimes be political differences, but you will find few elected officials to say bad things of him or his work. "

>> Read: With the creation of a dissident group, LREM loses its absolute majority in the Assembly

This close friend of Alain Juppé is praised for his discretion, his listening skills and his loyalty to the President of the Republic. The majority deputies also appreciate that he does not intervene in the management of their group in the National Assembly.

Finally, they recognize his ability to cope as a crisis. "Whether during the health crisis, during the strike months against the pension reform or during the yellow vests crisis, Édouard Philippe has always known how to stay calm," emphasizes Sonia Krimi.

The one who allowed the division of the right

But beyond his very real qualities and his popularity with the French, Édouard Philippe has become indispensable to Emmanuel Macron because he is the one through whom the division of the right arrived. By appointing him to Matignon in the spring of 2017 and letting him lead a center-right policy, the Head of State brought to him all the moderate fringes of the Les Républicains party, including Bruno Le Maire, Gérald Darmanin, Franck Riester , Sébastien Lecornu or even Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne are the government representatives.

>> Read: Municipal 2020: the Republic on the move is seriously leaning to the right

At the same time, LR with Laurent Wauquiez at his head curled up on himself, until the debacle of the 2019 European elections, where the list led by François-Xavier Bellamy could only obtain 8.48% of voice.

The re-election of Emmanuel Macron, who campaigned in the center in 2017 but who has led a qualified right-wing policy for three years, therefore also depends on the retention of Edouard Philippe. The latter indeed secures the support of part of the right-wing electorate: 71% of LR sympathizers have a favorable image of the Prime Minister, according to an Ifop poll published on June 22 in the Journal du Dimanche.

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