"Strictest" Sixth National Automobile Enterprises intensified polarization?

　　The industry received a breathing opportunity during the half-year sales buffer period. Experts: Dealers have enough time to digest China V models, and vulnerable car companies are under pressure

　　On the occasion of the first anniversary of entering the National Six emission standards in many places, the National Six emission standards will be formally implemented nationwide from July 1 this year.

　　Compared with the National V emission standards, the National VI emission standards have stricter requirements on emission limits, and are called the most stringent standards so far in the industry. Due to the impact of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic and the downturn of the automobile market, the automobile market is showing insufficient consumption power. For the future impact, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee, said in an interview with the Beijing News that the National Six emission standards have been left for half a year The buffer period is of great benefit to vehicle manufacturers, dealers and parts companies, and it will allow a certain amount of time to digest China V models. However, for the disadvantaged car companies, the upgrade of emission standards will bring certain pressure on them, and the market polarization will be further intensified.

　　The mainstream hot-selling models have basically been upgraded, and the buffer period is obvious.

　　According to the data of the China Automobile Association, as of the end of March, the passenger car inventory was 3.397 million, and the proportion of its six Chinese models accounted for 87%. The mainstream hot-selling models of car companies basically completed the upgrade of National Six; the inventory of National Five vehicles was about 260,000. However, the inventory of China VI vehicles that have not reached the PN limit is 3.14 million, and dealers are still under some pressure.

　　The Beijing News reporter visited the 4S shop during the Dragon Boat Festival and found that most car brands, including luxury cars, are selling at a substantial profit. For example, the self-owned brand Great Wall Motors Haval has a discount of more than 30,000 yuan, and FAW-Volkswagen models have cash discounts. On the basis, gift packages, maintenance, etc. will also be presented, and the highest discount for luxury brands Audi exceeds 100,000.

　　The industry believes that the auto market is sluggish, and dealers are under greater pressure. It is probably not easy for dealers to complete the digestion of China V models in a short period of time. However, the setting of the half-year National Five vehicle model buffer period has obvious advantages for car companies and dealers. The implementation of the National Six emission standards nationwide will not cause pressure on the industry.

　　"For car companies, there is enough time to produce and expand the production capacity of the National Six model." Cui Dongshu analysis said that last year, some regions implemented the National Six standard in advance, and dealers reduced prices to clear inventory. At that time, abnormalities occurred from June to July. At the stage of high sales, but the increase of dealers does not increase profits. This year, a buffer period will be set up to allow dealers easy time to digest the national V models, and dealers will not lose money due to the rush to clear inventory and reduce prices. The same is true for parallel imported cars. There are half a year to digest the first half of the year, especially those imported in large quantities in June.

　　The coming of the Sixth National Era, "July is not the time to stop selling the fifth national car model"

　　"It should be said that July 1 is the cut-off point for domestic vehicles to stop production of National V models, but it is not the time to stop selling National V models. National V models produced before July 1 can still continue to be sold." Cui Dongshu told reporters .

　　In fact, the first national emission standard was proposed in 2016. According to the announcement in May this year, from July 1, 2020, the national sixth emission standard for light vehicles will be implemented nationwide, and the production of light vehicles will be prohibited. The import of light vehicles should meet the national six emission standards; for July 1, 2020 The national five emission standard light-duty vehicles produced (the date of uploading the motor vehicle certification) and imported (the date of arrival of the bookmark of the goods import certificate) will be added to the six-month sales transition period; before January 1, 2021, it is allowed to Regional sales and registrations that implement the national VI emission standards.

　　Although the National VI emission standards are implemented nationwide this time, on the one hand, there is a half-year sales buffer period, on the other hand, the details have been adjusted, and the number of particulate matter of the National VI emission standards for light vehicles that was originally planned to be implemented on July 1st The limit (PN limit) production transition period, the cut-off time is delayed until January 1, 2021, which has been relaxed for half a year.

　　The industry believes that this adjustment to extend the transition period is equivalent to relaxing requirements and giving companies a certain "respite period".

　　Compared with the National V emission standards, the National VI emission standards have stricter requirements on emission limits. In comparison, the National VI emission standard test items have increased, and for the first time, light vehicle actual emission test methods have been introduced. In addition, under the condition of excluding working conditions and testing, the carbon monoxide emissions of gasoline vehicles in the National Six emission standards are reduced by 50%, the total hydrocarbon and non-methane total hydrocarbon emission limits are reduced by 50%, and the nitrogen oxide emission limits are tightened. 42%.

　　Vulnerable car companies face operating pressure, or fall into a dilemma of no car to sell

　　According to the environmental information disclosure data of the Motor Vehicle Sewage Monitoring Center, as of June 18, 2020, a total of 6,875 models (22,541 information disclosure numbers) of 291 companies had carried out light vehicle National Six environmental protection information disclosure.

　　According to Luo Lei, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the implementation of the National Six emission standards will not have much impact on the industry as a whole. Last year, the National VI emission standard was implemented in advance. Currently, 60% of the regions are selling National VI models. The transition from National V to National VI has been completed. The remaining 40% of the regions have relatively weak economic levels, and there are still national V models. However, the remaining half-year transition period can effectively relieve the pressure of the National Sixth Switchover.

　　Cui Dongshu has a similar point of view, saying that the Midwest region has not yet completed the switching of the National Six model, but the overall pressure is not great. In addition, he believes that for the disadvantaged car companies, the upgrade of emission standards will bring certain pressure on them, coupled with the operating pressure brought by the epidemic, the weak car companies may appear to have no cars to sell, and the market polarization will be Further intensified.

　　As for the used car industry, in May, the second-hand car market rebounded in volume and achieved positive growth. Luo Lei believes that the second-hand car market is recovering well, but dealers digest and deal with the national five new car models to a certain extent. Squeeze occurs, but the impact is limited. In addition, the restriction policy is also a factor. "National V models may face the risk of restriction in certain areas. The restriction policy for second-hand cars should be further broken to promote circulation."

　　For the upstream parts and components industry, Cui Dongshu believes that the benefits are obvious, and related companies will get good returns, while also bringing benefits to foreign-funded component companies. "Currently, core technologies such as emission upgrades are still monopolized by foreign-funded component companies, and this time will force domestic component companies to make technological progress." China Merchants Securities Research reported that low-cost domestic components have strong replacement capabilities.

　　People in the industry, including Cui Dongshu, generally believe that the switching of China VI is an inevitable trend. For the automotive industry, the implementation challenges and opportunities of China VI coexist.

　　Beijing News reporter Wang Linlin