China News Service, June 30 (Liu Danyi, He Luman) "Welcome to Kim Jong Un to visit the White House at any time." A year ago, US President Trump had invited this way.
Over the past year, gaming, shouting, disconnecting, blowing up the "window" of dialogue, and prolonging sanctions... A series of actions by all parties has gradually returned the DPRK-ROK and DPRK-US relations to a period of confrontation that is more familiar to all parties. After a short time of melting ice, a new question arises: Will there be any more at the next "Golden Meeting"?
Data Map: On June 30, 2019, US President Trump met with North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong Un in the Korea-DPRK demilitarized zone.
01. "Small step" of stagnation
On the last day of June 2019, US President Trump, who was visiting South Korea, met with North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong Un in Panmunjom. He then crossed the military demarcation line and became the first U.S. president to step on the Korean soil since the North Korean Armistice Agreement was signed.
Both the DPRK and the US gave positive comments on the meeting. Kim Jong-un said that this meeting will play a positive role in facing future dialogues. Trump said that the DPRK and the United States agreed to restart denuclearization negotiations.
However, after releasing a positive signal, the two sides walked towards each other's footsteps, but it seemed to slow down and stagnate.
Data Map: On June 30, 2019, US President Trump met with North Korea’s top leader Kim Jong Un in the Korea-DPRK demilitarized zone.
Speaking of the changes in DPRK-US relations over the past year, Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the Foreign Affairs University, said in an interview with a reporter from China News that Trump’s initiative and innovation in the DPRK policy could not withstand the mainstream of the US political elite. Hostility towards North Korea. They have internally denounced Trump's proactive policy on North Korea.
North Korean expert Wang Sheng, professor of the Department of International Politics at the School of Administration of Jilin University, also said, "From the perspective of the United States as a whole, no matter whether it is decision-makers, strategic circles, or academic circles, they generally do not agree to negotiate with North Korea. Weakness. Coupled with the unsuccessful talks in Hanoi, Vietnam, Trump has brought many variables to advancing DPRK-US relations."
In an interview with a reporter from ChinaNews.com, he said: "North Korea has certain expectations for the Trump administration, but after the outbreak of the new crown, after the first half of this year, North Korea became more and more disappointed and felt that the Trump administration There will be no big moves. And Trump’s success in re-election is full of variables, so now, not only does the DPRK-US relationship not improve, if the United States has not come up with some measures to negotiate with North Korea, it will deteriorate in the future. possibility."
Data map: On June 30, 2019, US President Trump, who was visiting South Korea, accompanied by South Korean President Wen Jae-in, came to the DPRK-ROK demilitarized zone.
02. The beaten "Bridgebreaker"
When it comes to the historic meeting between Kim Jong Un and Trump, he has to mention one person-South Korean President Wen Jae-in.
Before the third meeting with Kim Jong Un, Trump was accompanied by Wen Zaiyin and boarded the "Olet" post only 25 meters away from the North Korean border. Here, Wen Zaiyin introduced Trump to the Kaicheng Industrial Park, which was regarded as a model of North Korea-South Korea cooperation, and the US military briefed the two leaders on the excavation of the remains of the Korean War in the demilitarized zone.
However, recently, the relationship between North Korea and South Korea has changed. North Korea condemned South Korean civil society for continuing to pressure South Korea after distributing anti-DPRK leaflets at the border.
On June 16, 2020, accompanied by a loud noise, the DPRK-ROK liaison office regarded as "creating a direct dialogue mechanism between the DPRK and the ROK" was bombed by the DPRK. South Korea’s Blue House expressed strong regret over the DPRK’s move, and the relationship between the two sides is facing a deterioration.
Data Map: On June 16, local time, a thick smoke rose from the North Korean Kaicheng Industrial Park, where the Korea-Korea Liaison Office is located. The Ministry of Unification of Korea confirmed that the North Korea-Korea Liaison Office in the Kaesong Industrial Park of North Korea was blasted.
Wang Sheng pointed out that South Korea has been making efforts since the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics (promoting the relaxation of DPRK-US relations). "But the problem is that South Korea can only play a matchmaking role, and cannot influence the US decision on the DPRK, so its role will be subject to some restrictions."
Analysts said that North Korea ostensibly took the opportunity to "beat" South Korea, in fact, to put pressure on the United States.
Wang Sheng said that the real purpose of North Korea is not to provoke conflict on the peninsula, but to negotiate with the United States. North Korea wants to develop its economy, and the most pressing issue is lifting sanctions.
03. "Deadline" vs. extended sanctions
In 2019, North Korea set a "deadline" for the United States to come up with a new dialogue plan at the end of the year, and conducted two "major tests" on December 7 and 13 of the same year, with a view to forcing the US to take substantive action.
Data Map: On May 24, 2018, local time, North Korea completed the demolition of the Fengxili Nuclear Test Site in Jizhou County, North Hamgyong Province, northeast.
However, the United States has called on the UN Security Council to hold an open meeting on the situation on the Korean peninsula, reiterating that "the UN sanctions against the DPRK must be effectively implemented." At the same time, the US has not stopped the joint US-ROK military exercise and arms sales to South Korea.
On June 12, 2020, at the two-year anniversary of the DPRK-US summit in Singapore, North Korean Foreign Minister Li Shanquan said in a statement that North Korea is disappointed with the US policy toward North Korea. North Korea will further strengthen its military power in response to the long-term US military threat. It serves as a "constant strategic goal".
Five days later, Trump issued a statement through the White House, saying that North Korea still poses a major threat to the United States, announcing that the state of emergency involving the DPRK from 2008 to the present will be extended by one year-which means that the corresponding US sanctions on the DPRK will be extended.
The current tough situation between North Korea and the United States is in stark contrast to the "warm breeze" a year ago.
The reason why the United States extended its sanctions against the DPRK, in Li Donghai's view, is that one of the reasons is the relaxation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, which is not conducive to the US military presence on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia gaining the support of allies. "So to some extent, maintaining or even aggravating the tension on the peninsula is critical to the United States' strengthening its allies' dependence on it."
Information map: In 2019, South Korea opened the demilitarized zone walking tour to the public. The picture shows that tourists are experiencing a walking tour, surrounded by barbed wire around the trail. China News Agency reporter Zeng Nashe
"U.S. maintaining sanctions is forcing North Korea to feel the crisis and forcing North Korea to compromise and let North Korea negotiate with the United States again." Wang Sheng believes that this is Trump's "hard card."
He said: "Trump wants to stabilize North Korea, but now it seems that North Korea has realized that the superficial, lip service that the United States has used before is useless and asks the United States to take concrete actions. But now Trump is taking it again. Without actual action, you can only respond with a tough card."
04. Unbalanced appeal
Three feet frozen, not a cold day.
"The main differences are caused by the imbalance between the short-term strategic goals of the United States and the long-term strategic appeals of North Korea. North Korea’s strategic appeals are mainly to resolve security issues, including ending the Korean War with the United States, signing a truce declaration, or transforming a temporary armistice agreement. For a peace agreement, it is then necessary to formally establish diplomatic relations with the United States, etc." Wang Sheng said in an analysis.
Data Map: On June 12, 2018, North Korea’s highest leader Kim Jong Un and US President Trump held their first meeting at the Capella Hotel in Singapore.
"But this appeal is completely asymmetrical with the United States' temporary goal against the DPRK. The United States only wants North Korea to stop nuclear tests and intercontinental missile test firing. It is satisfied. The United States does not want to sign a temporary peace agreement because it involves the United States in South Korea. Some garrison issues, including strategic objectives in Northeast Asia."
Another obstacle comes from the economic aspect. North Korea demands that the United States lift sanctions, especially agreements within the framework of the United Nations, but the United States does not believe that North Korea will abandon its nuclear powers, and believes that if the sanctions are lifted, there will be no bargaining chips for North Korea to move toward nuclear abandonment negotiations.
Wang Sheng pointed out, "No consensus can be reached on these two points, and there will be no way for the US-DPRK nuclear negotiations to make a breakthrough."
05. Will there be another next "Golden Meeting"?
"This year is an election year. Trump will consider whether it is worth meeting with Kim Jong-un from the perspective of elections." Li Haidong pointed out, "Trump's election situation in the (United States) is not very good. He may want to have diplomacy As shown, diplomacy is not the core issue that voters are concerned about. Therefore, although the possibility of Trump meeting with Kim Jong Un cannot be ruled out, this possibility is very low."
Data Map: On February 27, 2019, the second DPRK-US summit meeting was held in Hanoi, Vietnam. The picture shows Trump and Kim Jong-un having dinner together.
He pointed out that the current North Korean leader's criticism of South Korea and the United States is very high, plus the various conditions in the United States, combined to judge, the probability of two people meeting is very low.
Wang Sheng holds the same opinion on this, "If the Democratic Party comes to power, basically it still advocates a policy of maintaining strong and high pressure deterrence against the DPRK. If Trump is elected, he may follow his approach in 2018 and 2019, but from his recent Judging from the performance over the past two years, there is also a problem of inconsistency in words and deeds."
"If you want to increase your diplomatic performance, Trump may push the GTC again, but domestic resistance in the (United States) is too great, and the basis for the US-DPRK negotiations is relatively weak, so he is not very optimistic." He said. (Finish)