Obama, yes he can

In 2008, in the midst of an economic crisis, Barack Obama largely won over his Republican adversary and became the first black man to become president of the United States. He owes this victory in particular to an innovative campaign and a slogan: "Yes we can". In the eleventh episode of the podcast Mister President by Europe 1 Studio, Olivier Duhamel looks back at the election of the 44th president of the United States. 

This podcast is produced in partnership with the Institut Montaigne

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The story of the election of Barack Obama is a story that you know a little but of which you will discover many fascinating aspects. As of the middle of the second mandate of Bush, the democrats get a health by gaining the majority both in the House of Representatives and in the Senate. The White House therefore seems within reach. So the pre-applications are jostling. Polls are multiplying. Two favorites emerge even before the first caucuses, the first primaries. New York Senator Hillary Clinton, who has long been known to be Bill's wife. And Illinois senator Barack Obama, who everyone will later learn is Michelle's husband.

Obama awakens the Democratic flame

Barack Obama, born May 4, 1961 in Honolulu, Hawaii, no offense to the fake news spread by Trump and company, born of an American and white mother of English origin and an African father, he lived a long time with his grandparents, his father having returned to Kenya and his mother studying anthropology before practicing it in Indonesia. He did his graduate studies in political science, international relations and English literature at Columbia University in New York. In 1989, he met Michelle Robinson, his wife three years later. They will have two daughters, Malia and Sasha. Obama then studied at Harvard University and became the first black to run the law school journal. After which he was professor of constitutional law at the University of Chicago and member of a law firm specializing in civil rights. In 1996, he entered politics, elected to the Illinois Senate in the south riding of Chicago. He distinguished himself in October 2002 by his position against the invasion of Iraq: "I am not someone who opposes war in all circumstances. I am opposed to a stupid war, not based on reason, but on passion, not on principles, but on politics. "

Barack Obama is spotted by the Democratic Party during the Illinois Senate campaign. He triumphed during the State primary in March 2004, then the November election. And in between, he delivers his address speech to the Democratic Convention in July. Let us quote his first words. "It is a great honor for me ... because let's face it, my presence on this platform was quite unlikely. My father was a foreign student born and raised in a small village in Kenya. By working hard and with perseverance, he studied in a magical place, America. " And a little further, "my parents gave me an African first name, Barack, believing that in a tolerant America, your first name is not a barrier to success ... My parents' dreams are perpetuated for my two beautiful daughters … My story is part of the great history of the United States. In no other country in the world is my story simply possible. " This July 27, 2004, with this speech called "The Audacity of Hope", Barack Obama awakened the democratic flame, becoming a popular national figure.

Candidates for the candidacy declare themselves well in advance. Hillary Clinton declared on January 20, 2007, Barack Obama three weeks later. Many others are announced, then, for the most part, like Joe Biden, give up as the polls show a polarization on the choice between Clinton and Obama. Who will win in the Iowa caucus? The favorite, the embodiment of the establishment, Hillary, or the challenger, the newcomer. 

Barack Obama won the very first run. But there are many others, starting with the one that still follows the Iowa caucus, the primary in New Hampshire. The Obama wave is still seriously slowed down. It is then that he pronounces three words which will become mythical "Yes we can", "yes we can". Will.i.am from the group Black Eyed Peas makes it a song. Bob Dylan's son produces the black and white clip mixed with excerpts from Obama's speeches. Many celebrities take the hit.

The web as an ally

Obama uses the web extensively. We are in 2008. Never before has e-campaign taken on such importance. The Obama team does not just present its program but multiplies in its political advertisements links to social networks. This serves to leverage donors. There will be more than three million, mobilize volunteers en masse, counter false rumors, inform the voters of decisive states on the voting procedures. 

Super Tuesday, from February 3, does not decide between them, they are left with almost the same number of delegates to the Convention. But it is followed throughout the month of February by ten successive Obama victories. Hillary made up for it in March by winning Ohio and Rhode Island then Pennsylvania in April. Obama, however, has more delegates than Clinton, but not the absolute majority.

Conflicts arise over states, such as Florida or Michigan, which have advanced the date of their primaries, which party rules prohibited. A compromise is found: their delegates will have half a vote each. When the primaries ended on June 3, the super-delegates, by right members of the Convention who had not spoken, chose Obama for the most part. Hillary Clinton has no chance. She was reluctant to admit it but ended up resigning herself to it on June 7. The Convention is therefore going well and Obama chooses Joe Biden, old from the old of democratic politicians, as a candidate for the vice-presidency at his side. On August 22, he sent nearly 3 million text messages to announce the name of his running mate.

McCain comes off

Republican side, no outgoing in the race. Not Bush, who cannot stand for re-election. Not his Vice President Dick Cheney, who could have. No member of the Bush government. The competition for the nomination is therefore very open. More than a dozen candidates to leave, including governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and, again, Senator John McCain. The latter two are favorites. But, surprise, it was Huckabee, Governor of Arkansas, who won the Iowa caucus. Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, governor of California votes for McCain, which ensures his victory in this state, which brings the most delegates. Giuliani gives up and supports McCain.

Huckabee resisted, however, during the same Super Tuesday, winning 5 states against 7 for McCain. The latter then receives the support of Romney who withdraws. He wins most of the primaries that follow. Huckabee takes note and withdraws.

As in the Democratic camp, the primaries were hotly contested. And as in the Democratic camp, they made the decision before the Convention, which is content to ratify the choice of winner chosen by the voters. McCain chose Sarah Palin, who had been elected governor of Alaska two years earlier, as vice-president, to reassure both the right wing of the Republican party and those worried about his 72 years and his fragile health. But Sarah Palin will be the subject of much criticism or mockery about her limited abilities ...

Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, turning point in the countryside

The campaign itself, the "general campaign", begins in August 2008. The confrontation first relates to the 2003 war in Iraq, which Obama had condemned and McCain supported. The Republican makes a blunder by saying that the Americans could stay fifty or a hundred years in Iraq to ensure peace, as they did, he said, in Germany or in Japan ... The more we talk about the Iraq, plus Obama can connect McCain to President Bush, who has become as unpopular as this war. Only a quarter of Americans support it in the fall. Another example which weakens McCain, questioned on August 20 on the number of houses that he and his wife owned, he only knew how to answer "I will ask my staff to answer you". And Sarah Palin doesn't help with her baffling statements.

That said, the real turning point came on September 15, 2008 with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the start of the great financial crisis. McCain suspends his campaign by announcing that he is returning to Washington to prepare an emergency assistance program and will not debate until the law is passed. It is not and he debates. And when it is in a new version, Obama and Biden will vote for it. McCain's inconsistencies serve him, the crisis even more.

The Obama campaign is piling up innovations, for example by multiplying banners on online video games to get a young electorate to vote. On November 4, participation broke records for an American presidential election. 131 million voters. Nearly 62%, a record since 1960. African-Americans mobilized, 13% of the electorate against 11% four years earlier. And they voted Obama 95%. Conversely, 55% of whites chose McCain. 56% of women voted Obama, only 49% of men. In total, Obama largely wins at 53% against 46% for McCain.

The historic election of 2008 revealed three lessons.

Lesson 21: The Internet is becoming an essential tool for mobilizing voters. Obama showed it in 2008. Macron will be inspired by it in 2017

Lesson n ° 22: A very serious economic crisis causes alternation. The 2008 crisis took McCain's chances away. This same economic crisis was not for nothing in the defeat of Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012.

Lesson 23: A half-breed, blacker than white, can become president of the United States. When is the election of a black or a beur at the Élysée. 

In an exceptional context, a black man became president of the United States of America. In more peaceful times, will he be re-elected?

The 2012 election: Romney, a Mormon in battle

The presidential election of 2012 is much less exciting. The Democrats certainly lost the majority in the House of Representatives during the midterm elections of 2010, but retained that in the Senate. Obama does not suffer any challenge during the primaries and the democratic caucuses, held for the form. He takes over from Vice President Joe Biden on the ticket.

Among the Republicans, the competition opens for a time. Mitt Romney, governor of Massachusetts, a multimillionaire Mormon, was a favorite from the start. Contested on his right by Net Gringrich, on his left by the libertarian Ron Paul, Romney comes to the end during the first half of 2012. He takes as running mate right-hander MP for Wisconsin Paul Ryan to reassure Tea Party of which he is one of figures. Born at the start of Obama's term, this movement, which started from the base of the Republicans, strongly contests the role of the federal state.

Obama remains a favorite for a long time, misses the first debate which allows Romney to rise, then regains the advantage. In the third debate, he taunts Romney's criticism that the Navy was weaker than in 1917. "We have fewer ships than we did in 1916. Well, governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets, because the nature of our military's changed ". "We have fewer boats than in 1916. Well governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets because the nature of our army has changed."

The explosion of campaign spending

The campaign has seen an explosion in spending since the Supreme Court changed the rules. By Citizen United v. Federal Election Commission of January 21, 2010, it cancels, by 5 votes to 4, the McCain-Feingold law of 2002 which prohibited that a company can finance a television advertisement in the two months preceding the presidential election or the month preceding a primary. In total, two billion dollars are spent by the two candidates. More than 80% in negative publicity, that is to say centered against the opposing candidate.

Obama collected fewer votes than in 2008. He nevertheless easily won with 51% of the votes against 47% for Romney and more than a hundred big voters in advance. Obama is again popular with minorities: 71% of Hispanic voters, 73% of Asians, 93% of blacks, but only 30% of whites. And, again, 55% of women, only 45% of men.

Lesson # 24: Money and advertising are playing an increasing role. 2 billion in spending, more than 80% of negative advertising in 2012. In France campaign spending is regulated and capped. 

The Constitution will prohibit Obama from setting out to conquer a third term in 2016. This presidential election will then be one of the most unforeseen, the most surprising, the most divisive in the history of the United States. This is our next episode, and, tentatively, the last in our series.

"Mister President by Europe 1 Studio" is a podcast imagined by Olivier Duhamel

Preparation: Capucine Patouillet
Production: Christophe Daviaud (with Matthieu Blaise)

Editorial project manager: Fannie Rascle
Distribution and editing: Clémence Olivier
Graphics: Mikaël Reichardt
Archives: Europe 1 sound heritage with François Clemenceau (January 9, 2008, August 24, 2008 and September 19, 2008)