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Will Edouard Philippe wear his mayor's scarf on Friday in Le Havre, the day when the new elected mayors take office? The question is hotter than ever when the Prime Minister, uncertain about his government future a few days from a possible reshuffle, won hands down (58%) the second round of municipal elections in his stronghold this Sunday.
>> LIVE - Results of the second round of municipal elections: analysis, interviews and reports
Strong popularity for an increasingly Prime Minister of Le Havre
With a popularity now greater than Emmanuel Macron, 50% against 38% (according to a survey published in the JDD on June 21), notably thanks to his management of the coronavirus crisis, Édouard Philippe was very Le Havre during his Normandy countryside. "He tried to make this election as local as possible, while his opposition tried to nationalize the stakes of the election," analyzes our political journalist Jean-Rémi Baudot.
>> READ - Municipal: how to explain the very low participation in the second round?
If in mid-June he confirmed staying in Matignon even if he was elected mayor, Édouard Philippe seemed to change his mind a few days later, on France 3, explaining that his return to the fold could "happen very quickly". And to add: "If it happens quickly, it will be fine." From there to see a call of the foot to Emmanuel Macron? The subject remains whole.
Can Edouard Philippe embody the possible ecological shift of the quinquennium?
Because we must not lose sight of the fact that it is up to the "master of clocks" who decides. While he was to meet alone the citizen convention for the climate Monday, according to our information, Emmanuel Macron finally met these 150 French people in the company of his Prime Minister. On this occasion "the quinquennium could take an ecological turn", says Jean-Rémi Baudot. "The question of whether or not to keep Edouard Philippe is therefore linked to his ability to embody the green shift desired by Emmanuel Macron."
Especially since Emmanuel Macron wants a referendum on some of the proposals made by the citizens' convention on the climate, a direct democracy in the face of which Edouard Philippe does not hide his reluctance. Without forgetting that the Prime Minister, juppeist who militated for the arbitrations of the rigor, will have to defend orientations more on the left on the budgets if it is maintained.
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"Leaving with such a score is the dream"
Retaining his Prime Minister even if it means losing credibility in the face of new directions, or losing a solid and difficult to replace ally? The choice looks as tough for Emmanuel Macron as it seems win-win for the Prime Minister. "The result of Sunday evening makes the moment even more ideal for Edouard Philippe if it stops," analyzes Olivier Duhamel, political scientist. If he leaves from Matignon, "it is the exit of the one who has succeeded as much as possible in the face of the pandemic. He has acquired popularity with the French and to leave with a score like that is the dream!"
According to a poll published this Sunday, the French are in any case 55% wanting Edouard Philippe to continue running for Matignon. A majority that confirms once again the upward slope of popularity enjoyed by the Prime Minister since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.