- About 16 million voters were called to the polls in 5,000 cities this Sunday, for the second round of municipal elections.
- The ballot mobilized the French very little: around 60% of voters abstained, a historic record.
- The Greens are making an unprecedented breakthrough, and winning many cities, including metropolitan areas. In Le Havre, the Prime Minister comes out victorious while the National Rally conquers Perpignan. The Republicans and the Socialist Party maintain their good local roots.
Until the end, the municipal elections will have had their share of surprises and records. The second round of this election took place this Sunday in nearly 5,000 municipalities, more than three months after its postponement. The vote was marked by a new abstention record and a breakthrough by environmentalists, while the traditional parties retained their local roots.
The results of the municipal elections
Record abstention
The abstention rate was, this Sunday, even higher than in the first round, which was already a historic record (55.34%). About 60% of the 16.5 million voters affected by this second round did not vote, according to estimates. In 2014, abstention was only 37.87% in the second round, and 36.45% in the first.
Is this very low participation due to the health context, while the coronavirus epidemic is still circulating, six weeks after the start of deconfinement? "The French have resumed activities, so the coronavirus does not fully explain the abstention," said political scientist Olivier Rouquan. "It is in any case an additional indication of this very strong distrust of the French towards their elected representatives, and this while the mayor would be the preferred elected of the French", continues the researcher associated with the Center for Studies and administrative and political science research from the University of Paris 2. “This ballot is not really representative of the opinions of the electorate. "
Emmanuel Macron said this Sunday evening "concerned about [the] low participation rate", described as a "civic strike" and a "dangerous" moment by the leader of La France insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
A "green wave"
The green wave of Europeans is confirmed at the municipal level. Europe ecology-The Greens are gaining many town halls, including very symbolic metropolises, such as Lyon, a macronist stronghold conquered by Grégory Doucet, and Bordeaux, where Pierre Hurmic imposes himself in this bastion of the right. Strasbourg, Besançon, Poitiers, Annecy, and even Tours, are also going green. "A green wave is rising in France", rejoiced the spokesperson of Europe Ecology-The Greens Eva Sas, on France 2, while the MEP Yannick Jadot hailed the victory of "hope around 'a beautiful project'. "What has won tonight, it seems to me, is the desire for a concrete ecology, an ecology in action," he said on TF1.
“It is an undeniable success. There is now a significant part of the electorate, which takes this environmental issue seriously and can change heads. Environmental awareness has been combined with a desire to be clear in certain cities, ”observes Olivier Rouquan. The researcher adds that “the socialist and communist parties participate in these victories of the Greens. These municipal elections show that there is no possibility of victory without a union between the ecologists and the left ”.
Nice catches for the PS
The rose party maintains its strongholds, such as Nantes, Paris, Rennes, Brest or Le Mans. It delights several cities to the right or center-right, like Nancy, where Matthieu Klein beat the outgoing mayor Laurent Hénart (radical movement), and Quimper, whose mayor LR Ludovic Jolivet bowed to Isabelle Assih.
In Montpellier, the socialist Mickaël Delafosse wins against the outgoing mayor Philippe Saurel and Mathieu Hanotin steals Saint-Denis from the outgoing communist mayor, Laurent Russier. In Lille, Martine Aubry was very afraid: she kept her scarf by beating the environmental candidate Stéphane Baly by only 227 votes, according to those around her.
"A social and ecological block is being born", greeted the first secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure, who sees "an immense momentum [which] rises in all France and allows to see all the left and the ecologists who are winning tremendous victories. "
LR strengthens its local roots
Certainly, the Les Républicains party has an advantageous local network compared to the other parties. Many of its outgoing mayors were re-elected, and some in the first round. This Sunday, Jean-Luc Moudenc narrowly retains the town hall of Toulouse, while Christian Estrosi is comfortably re-elected in Nice, like Maryse Joissains-Masini in Aix-en-Provence. In Paris, Rachida Dati bowed to the outgoing mayor with an honorable score, above 30%. But certain symbols hurt, like the defeat of Nicolas Florian in Bordeaux, when the city was on the right for more than 70 years, and that of Martine Vassal in Marseille.
"We remain the leading party in the territories, we are satisfied," said Gilles Platret, vice-president of the party. "This ballot is also the demonstration that the local presidential party registry did not work," he continues, while LREM displayed its desire to siphon the right-wing electorate in many cities.
"LR is losing a lot of big cities, which is costly in terms of the population represented," underlines Olivier Rouquan. "The choices of local alliances can also blur their message, and in certain cities their victory is also due to LREM, as in Toulouse".
The National Gathering "between two waters"
The Rassemblement did not succeed in its bet to “make a splash of oil” around its bastions and to build an important local anchorage. He lost Le Luc, in the Var, and Mantes-la-ville, his only Ile-de-France commune. But he won Moissac (Tarn-et-Garonne), Bruay-la-Buissière (Pas-de-Calais) and especially Perpignan.
By defeating Jean-Marc Pujol, the outgoing mayor LR, Louis Aliot offers the party its largest city (120,000 inhabitants). “The Perpignan people, the Catalans send a sign to the whole of France. There is no wall that cannot be demolished, this republican front was a scam, ”declared the deputy for the Pyrénées-Orientales. "It is unfortunate, because Jean-Marc Pujol had done the job, but after a while the wear and tear is swept away by the voters", blows a LR frame about the one who has ruled the Catalan city for ten years.
"It is not only a symbolic victory, it is a real trigger, because we will also be able to demonstrate that we are capable of managing large communities, which obviously will be important given the departmental deadlines and regional ”, reacted Marine Le Pen. "The RN is between two waters, we cannot really speak of dynamics", nuance Olivier Rouquan.
La Bérézina announced has taken place for LREM
The announced “déculottée” took place. The presidential party does not win any big city, and loses in metropolises however gainable, like Besançon, Lyon or Strasbourg. In Paris, Agnès Buzyn does even less than in the first round, with an estimated score between 13.7 and 16% of the vote, and should not even get a municipal seat.
"We are in the process of establishing our movement," wants to believe Stanislas Guerini, patron of the movement. "It's a step tonight for La République en Marche," he said on TF1. He hailed Edouard Philippe's victory in Le Havre, evoking "a beautiful symbol for this presidential majority who acted during the crisis". A meager consolation prize for Emmanuel Macron's party ... The Prime Minister is in any case strengthened by his local victory, while a reshuffle should take place in the coming days.
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