Libya: concern over possible regional escalation

Text by: Houda Ibrahim Follow

In Libya, faced with the explosive situation where each party continues to strengthen its positions around Sirte in the event of a battle, calls are increasing for a cease-fire. Because such a battle could lead to regional escalation.

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This Thursday, June 25, France, Germany and Italy called in a joint statement, all the Libyan parties "  to immediately and unconditionally cease fighting and to suspend the ongoing strengthening of military assets across the country  " . But on the ground, the situation is further complicated by Ankara's refusal to comply and the stubbornness of its Libyan allies in the government of national harmony, to take Sirte and Al Joufra. A red line for Egypt, which multiplies contacts to nevertheless avoid resorting to military choice.

Last resort

It is the developments of the coming days on the ground that will dictate the nature of an Egyptian decision and the timing of a possible intervention in Libya. If the GNA, supported by Turkey, attacks, Egypt would intervene. But military choice would be a last resort for Cairo. According to relatives of the Egyptian presidency, the intervention could be "  progressive and limited  ". Egypt therefore multiplies diplomatic contacts with Europeans, especially France, but also with the Americans to put pressure on Turkey. If Cairo positions itself so firmly, according to several observers, it is "  in order to defend itself more than to wage war  ". It is also to tell the Americans that "  pressure from Turkey is not acceptable  ".

Cairo does not trust the GNA, and fears that militias and terrorist elements will cross its long border with Libya while approaching the east of the country. This is one of the reasons why she defends Khalifa Haftar. Today Egypt considers that its national security is threatened. From her point of view, she will act legally in Libya to defend her territory from terrorism.

" Strategic  " freeze 

Cairo hopes that international pressures will lead to a " strategic  " freeze  on the Libyan front that prepares a return to the negotiating table. Yesterday, after the calls from Paris, Rome and Beriln, it was Washington's turn to call for an end to "  foreign interference, a ceasefire and a return to military and political discussions  " in Libya.

► Read also: Libya: will the Battle of Sirte take place?

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