Between conflict, partnership and faltering: the choices of Turkey and Egypt in Libya

The conflict in Libya since last year is close to shifting from a proxy war on the Libyan scene to a direct confrontation between Ankara on the one hand, Cairo, the Emirates and Russia on the other.

In light of the defeats suffered by retired Major General Khalifa Haftar on the outskirts of Tripoli by the forces of the Libyan National Accord government backed by Turkey, Egypt was forced to rethink its strategy and support for the man who was hoping to be a copy of "Abdel Fattah al-Sisi" in Libya.

With this introduction, the two authors, Sundus Asim and Rajab Soylu, started an article for them in the British Middle East Eye website, under the title "Between Conflict, Partnership and Stumbling .. Options for Turkey and Egypt in Libya", in which they tried to explore the prospects of the conflict between Ankara and Cairo in the Libyan arena, in light of recent developments And the options available to both parties regarding the Libyan file.

Direct war

The authors considered that the chances of an open war between Turkey and Egypt are slim, despite Sisi's recent statements in which he warned that "Sirte and Al-Jafra crossed a red line for Egypt," and waved direct Egyptian military intervention if the Libyan people requested it.

They pointed out that many observers do not take Sisi's statements seriously, a trend that was encouraged by statements by Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, who said that any interpretation of the speech as a declaration of war was not correct.

The website reported a Turkish official, who preferred not to be named, saying, "The Egyptian threats do not seem very serious, given that Cairo is already doing its best to support Haftar in Libya." It appears that it is an attempt to pressure the national reconciliation government to accept the ceasefire, Perhaps with the support of the Russians, we do not know whether Egypt has the capacity to increase its intervention in Libya. "

Turkish political analyst Murat Yiseltas also questioned the seriousness of the threat contained in Sisi's speech, especially since Cairo faces two major security threats: the threat of terrorist groups in the Sinai desert, and Ethiopia's plans to fill the Grand Renaissance Dam, which is a direct threat to Egypt's share of the Nile water.

The article ruled out the option of a direct military confrontation between Turkey and Egypt in the Libyan arena, noting that it is not expected that the Turkish equipment and planes and the Syrian warriors allied with it will face the Egyptian army funded by the United States in the near future.

Common interests

With the exclusion of the option of direct confrontation, the authors say that there are expectations that the two countries' common interests in the Mediterranean will succeed in bringing Ankara and Cairo closer.

They noted that in November of this year, Turkey and the government of National Accord signed an agreement to demarcate the maritime borders that define the economic viability areas between Ankara and Tripoli.

According to Khaled Fouad, an analyst specializing in energy and politics in the Middle East, the agreement serves the interests of Egypt, as it will prevent the construction of an East Mid gas pipeline between Israel and Europe whose construction threatens Egypt's economic and geopolitical interests, as it supplies Europe with Israeli gas via Cyprus and Greece.

The agreement also serves Egyptian interests more than the competing maritime boundary agreement proposed by Greece, which is currently negotiated with Egypt, which gives Athens more than Cairo.

Despite the temptation offered by the Turkish agreement on Egypt's economic viability areas, Fouad excludes Sisi's ability to choose it, given Cairo's political decision to depend on Sisi's external allies, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Fouad said that the political priorities of the Egyptian government are not governed by national interests, but are controlled by regional alliances with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which were formed in the wake of the 2013 coup that led Sisi to power, and as a result, Sisi will never be able to reach an agreement with Turkey - the most prominent opponent. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi - "because he is bound by other regional alliances that help him stay in power."

A former Turkish official, who preferred not to be named, told Middle East Eye that Ankara considers Sisi a dictator and that the differences between the two countries are difficult to overcome.

The article concluded that Cairo and Ankara need to normalize diplomatic relations between them before talking about any cooperation agreements between the two countries.