Paris (AFP)

The health crisis could threaten up to 463,000 jobs in industry in France by 2022 if no support is put in place, according to a study carried out for the UIMM by the consulting firm PwC, which mentions "a historic risk for French industrial sovereignty ".

"The month of March alone had an impact on industrial production at least equivalent to the oil shock of 1974 and the financial crisis of 2008," PwC said in a statement.

All industrial manufacturing activities were affected during containment, including transport equipment (-69%) and electrical, electronic and computer equipment (-61%), according to the study.

French industry has been one of the most affected in Europe and "the crisis is announced in the long term", adds PwC, estimating that, "unlike other sectors whose activity can resume fairly quickly, the trades of the manufacturing industry will be impacted over several semesters. "

The consulting firm studied three scenarios (pessimistic, central, moderate) to assess the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on French manufacturing industry by 2022 "if no support measures were put in place" .

According to the scenarios, the crisis would threaten between 187,000 and 463,000 direct jobs in the manufacturing industry, including 81,000 "not created" jobs.

For the metallurgy sector alone, the possible loss of jobs would vary between 123,000 and 304,000.

"In total, these threatened jobs would represent 15% of industrial jobs in France" in the central scenario, according to PwC.

And the crisis "will lead to a further undermining of the country's industrial sovereignty," adds PwC.

For Olivier Lluansi, partner at PwC in charge of the industrial sector, there is a risk that the control of industrial companies will relocate "via the acquisition of holdings in investment funds in particular".

"It is essential to secure supply chains by relocating part of them," he added, quoted in the press release.

Two main reasons lead to this need for relocation, he explained to AFP.

On the one hand, "we are entering an uncertain world". "The Sino-American trade war will experience its ups and downs, trade will certainly not be as fluid and the golden age of globalization may be behind us."

And so, "to secure supply chains, it is in your interest to have at least part of your supply in a zone of security, control, control, and rather nearby, at least in the European Union", he believes.

The other reason is due to the context of the crisis which should encourage "collective play": "We are going to go through an air gap and in this context there (...) it is in our interest to take orders within the French eco-system ". "There are capacities that will be available because of the crisis, let's try to play in solidarity (...) to get through the crisis," adds Olivier Lluansi.

© 2020 AFP