Analysis: The Corona crisis may have become a political game changer

The Corona crisis has fundamentally changed the Swedish voter opinion. In February, the Social Democrats were a party in deep crisis. At the same time, in several opinion polls, the Swedish Democrats were identified as the country's largest party. The Moderates hacked and found themselves in the position of third largest party.

But the corona crisis has changed everything. The Social Democrats have progressed sharply in the spring, while the Swedish Democrats have lost. Now dividing over ten percentage points between the two parties and the Social Democrats is undoubtedly by far the largest party in opinion.

The moderates have held the positions and moved forward some, but that the party is now again the second largest party is mainly due to the decline of the Swedish Democrats.

Thus, it has been a spring with strong movements in public opinion. Now the summer is here and there is much to say that it will be more quiet in the opinion. The SVT / Novus selector barometer also indicates this. All changes compared to last month are within the statistical margin of error. Nevertheless, interesting observations can be made in the selector barometer.

The rise of the Social Democrats seems to be broken. At least for this time. The party seems to be losing voter support, but the reduction is too small to be able to draw certain conclusions about it. However, it is obvious that spring's rise will not continue.

This is probably due to several things. First, the peace of peace has subsided and instead the criticism of the opposition against the government's way of acting during the crisis is growing. The national unity is as if blown away.

One explanation may also be that many Swedes have begun to question whether the Swedish strategy has actually been successful. The high death rates, not least compared to our neighboring countries, speak their clear language as well as many countries now refuse to allow travelers from Sweden. We also see in other studies that confidence in the government is decreasing.

Although it is still uncertain how the coronas center will develop in the future, the after-debate and the responsibility has already begun. This debate will be of great importance for the historical writing of the corona crisis in Sweden.

For the government, it is about trying to assert that Sweden, after all, has managed the crisis well, while the opposition will in various ways try to undermine confidence in the government. At the same time, criticizing the Swedish corona strategy is not at all straightforward for the opposition. During the acute phase, almost no criticism was heard at all.

No matter what, this debate will continue to affect opinion development. The Social Democrats risk further electoral losses, but can still come out of this at significantly higher levels than in February.

In that case, the explanation is that the corona crisis has become a political game changer. Issues that previously dominated the debate, such as migration and crime, are no longer as prominent. Instead, the Corona crisis has turned the spotlight on issues such as health care, the elderly and unemployment, which is the Social Democrats' political home plan.

Given the long-term consequences of the corona crisis, it is reasonable to assume that these issues will play a major role in Swedish politics for the foreseeable future, at least until the next election. Like jobs and finances, which can benefit not only the Social Democrats but also the Moderates.

However, for the Swedish Democrats, this changed game plan poses a major challenge. The party has grown in public opinion as a consequence of great media attention on migration policy and crime. If these issues are of less importance to the voters, it may be more difficult for the Swedish Democrats to win back the voters who have now moved.

Otherwise, as I said, it is quite quiet in the opinion of the parliamentary parties. For the Liberals, this is bad news. The party remains at 3.0 percent, which is clearly below the parliamentary blockade. The Environmental Party's crusade also continues. At 3.4 percent, the MP does not pass the parliamentary block either.

After the summer, it is half time in the term of office. Then the journey seriously begins until the next parliamentary elections in 2022. For parties like the Liberals and the Environment Party, a shaky journey awaits. For the Social Democrats, the starting position is good, but the evaluation of the corona crisis can quickly change the situation.