Strategy Forcasting (Stratfor) commented on the failure of negotiations last week between Cairo and Addis, on the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, that it means that the initial mobilization of the hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile will likely take place without an agreement between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia.
The research site, which is a private American strategic and security studies center, believes that Cairo will attempt, and may fail, to exert international pressure on Ethiopia to ensure that the giant new dam does not affect the flow of the Nile River system, the main source of water in Egypt.
He added that although technical coordination is inevitable, Egypt's diminishing impact on North Africa's water distribution will make its overall location on the Nile less secure over time.
According to Stratfor, Ethiopia, as the main party in the upstream countries, can take a hard line against Egyptian attempts to impose conditions on the operation of the project, and it will start filling the dam once the rainy season begins.
The site expected that Egypt, due to concern about losing access to its vital water source, would try to mobilize international support to pressure Ethiopia to agree to a mechanism to settle the conflict, in addition to an extended timetable to fill the dam.
He added that previous attempts at international mediation had been largely unsuccessful, and that such attempts risked only getting Ethiopia to cling more to its position.
He suggested that in the future, Egypt would have few options to compel Ethiopia to cooperate on technical issues, even if the deteriorating political dispute remained.
Even if they do not reach a temporary or permanent agreement, Egypt and Ethiopia will still need to cooperate in logistical issues as needed to manage the water flow between water releases in the Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia and the Aswan Dam in Egypt.
The American strategic location added that Egypt's loss of regional political weight would threaten its long-term benefit from the Nile, which would exacerbate the current water scarcity problems "in this desert country."
He concluded his comment that Egypt fears that surrendering to the demands of Ethiopia regarding how to fill and operate the dam could set a precedent that would push Addis Ababa and other countries in the Nile Basin in a more aggressive way to build additional dams.