The global recession will be harder than expected. The latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund published Wednesday, June 24, now forecast a contraction in world GDP of 4.9% in 2020, against 3% forecast in April. This recession follows containment measures to stem the Covid-19 pandemic.

All regions of the world are affected by these pessimistic projections. The GDP of the United States, the world's largest economy, will plunge 8%, against 5.9% previously estimated.

How will the world be different after # COVID19? Reflections from six prominent thinkers on how the pandemic has changed the world - in the latest issue of Finance & Development magazine https://t.co/cbNWloMUHu pic.twitter.com/ZRNukQ302U

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In addition, the Washington institution believes that the recovery expected in 2021 will be less sustained than initially projected (+ 5.4% against 5.8%). And in total, this crisis will cause a cumulative loss of more than 12 trillion dollars for the world economy in two years. 

A rebounding global growth but, behind the figures, a social blanket, a surge in bankruptcies and a generalized uncertainty: overview of the scenarios for the world economy in 2021 after the coronavirus shock.

Recovery of the world economy

At first glance, some figures would however suggest a rapid return to normal next year: 5.4% of global growth expected by the IMF, in line with the + 5.2% forecast for 2021 by the Organization of economic cooperation and development (OECD). 

So, will 2020 be just a bad memory quickly forgotten? No, warn more and more economists, alarmed by the violence of the shock in the first half. They expect a slow recovery, provided that a second wave of the new coronavirus does not strike.

The IMF has also made it clear that, despite the expected rebound, world GDP in 2021 would come out cut by 6.5% compared to what was expected before the pandemic.

With AFP

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