INTERVIEW
In a note sent to the government on Sunday, members of the Scientific Council warns that an "intensification of the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in the northern hemisphere at a more or less distant date (a few months, and in particular at the approach winter) is extremely likely. " But the coronavirus will circulate less in France this summer according to Professor Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist and member of the Scientific Council, guest of Europe 1 Tuesday.
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"The virus does not like heat"
"We can fully expect that, during this summer, the virus will be in the southern hemisphere" and that like other respiratory viruses, it will wait "fall to return to the northern hemisphere", estimates the director of the research unit on epidemiology of emerging diseases at the Pasteur Institute.
And this, in the first place, because "the virus does not like heat" supports the epidemiologist. However Météo France announces a heat peak for the week of June 22 with temperatures above 30 ° C in France. Météo France also points out that 2020 follows the same trend as 2019, the third hottest year in mainland France after 2018 and 2014.
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Less easy transmission outdoors
On the other hand "when people are outside, transmission is much less easy," adds Professor Arnaud Fontanet. On Monday, the Directorate General of Health stressed that the virus "continues to circulate in the territory", with five new outbreaks of Covid-19 cases grouped, bringing to 83 the number of "clusters" currently under investigation. "Most of the clusters took place in confined spaces," notes the epidemiologist. This therefore limits its circulation during the summer because people will spend more time outdoors.
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But Professor Arnaud Fontanet remains cautious all the same. "When a pandemic virus emerges for the first time in human populations, the first summer, it is still likely to circulate, including in the northern hemisphere", he warns taking the example of the H1N1 virus which "had crossed the 'England in the summer of 2009 "because collective immunity was very low at the time of the first wave. This is also the case of Covid-19 in France since only "5 to 10% of the French population has been infected", notes the epidemiologist.