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The pandemic, confinement, partisan strife, one-sidedness, the death toll, the dark pacts, the de-escalation ... Potpourri of pieces that begin to fit on the electoral board, drawing a scenario dominated by the two great political forces that unite 55% of the vote and they are divided into two practically equal pieces.

The state of alarm declines and the country is groping a new precarious normality, with two ghosts on the horizon: the outbreak of the virus and the economic disaster. A panorama in which the political options are resituated with the PSOE in the lead, which would win again in the elections with 28.7% of the votes and the PP gaining ground and hot on the heels with a forecast of 26%. Just 2.7 points of difference between the two compared to the 7.2 that separated them at the polls of 10-N.

This is the main conclusion of the Sigma Dos survey for the month of EL MUNDO. A poll that, in addition, presents Vox in free fall with an 11.7% intention to vote, which would lead it to lose, for the moment, very little, the status of third parliamentary force. That position would be occupied by United Podemos, with 12% of the votes.

Pablo Iglesias' party, now installed in the coalition government with the PSOE, struggles not to lose foot on the field of play, but its electoral prediction is almost one point (0.8) below what it obtained in the November elections and 2.3 points below what it achieved in April 2019.

The purple-socialist tandem is maintained because what the second loses is won by the first. However, this is a position that in recent months has been subject to continuous lurching.

Thus, according to the series of polls from EL MUNDO, the PSOE has lost in just over two months a good part of the credit that citizens gave it in April, at the hard times of the pandemic, when it came to brush against an intention to 32% vote.

Now Pedro Sánchez returns to the level he obtained 14 months ago, in the elections of 26-A, which were not consummated with the formation of the Government and led the Spaniards back to the polls of 10-N.

In the case of Unidas Podemos, the survey reflects the positive effect of the approval of the Minimum Vital Income , a government measure that the residents have exploited as if it were their own and that allows them to recover half a point with respect to the forecast of two months, but without reaching the result they achieved on 10-N and much less on the one obtained on 26-A.

In this survey, without a doubt, the best unemployed are the popular ones, which clearly improve the results of the last two confrontations, probably thanks to a transfer of votes from Vox. Now they would achieve 26% of the ballots, one in four, and would be placed less than three points away from the Socialists. They would thus exceed the result of 10-N by more than five points and that of 26-A by more than nine.

Along with them, the other beneficiary is Ciudadanos, led by Inés Arrimadas. The oranges are still far from the success they obtained in April 2019 (15.9%) and that they squandered with their stubborn refusal to agree with the PSOE. In the electoral repetition of 10-N they sank with 6.8% of the votes. Now, according to the survey, they are starting to raise their heads, predictably due to their new willingness to close deals, and would achieve 8.3% of the ballots.

Their position makes them a desired ally for both the left bloc, led by the PSOE, and the right wing, led by the PP. In case of opting for the first, they would allow Sánchez to get rid of some uncomfortable support. If they choose the second, they would blow Pablo Casado a good dose of the oxygen he lacks to travel the path to La Moncloa with possibilities.

With regard to the Catalan forces -ERC and JxCat-, there is a decrease compared to the November ballot boxes, half a point in the case of the Republicans and two tenths in the case of the heirs of the old Convergence .

The downward trend is more sustained and pronounced in the case of CKD. Probably his approach in recent months to the PSOE has led to a transfer of votes towards Catalan socialism and perhaps also towards the much more radical offer of the CUP, given that the fall in support registered by those of Junqueras does not benefit the sister secessionist force, JxCat with whom it shares in tense alliance the armchairs of the Generalitat.

On the Basque stage, now heavily influenced by the imminence of its own elections, the PNV gains strength compared to the 10-N elections. Specifically, it goes up three tenths. In the event of a call to the general ballot box, he would get 1.9% of the votes. All the polls to date give Basque nationalists a clear triumph in the regional ones on July 12.

Regarding the note that citizens put on political leaders, the president, Pedro Sánchez heads the list. It does not reach the pass: it stays with a 4.2. His average grade goes up thanks to the powerful support that the voters of PSOE and United We Can give him. On the contrary, the voters of PP and Vox grant him the lowest grade only after that given to Pablo Iglesias.

Inés Arrimadas manages to climb to second place with a grade of 3.9. Its own voters raise it to 5.1. Curiously, those of the PSOE and those of the PP coincide almost millimetrically, giving it a 4.5 and a 4.3, respectively.

The PP leader, Pablo Casado, appears in third place with a 3.4. Popular voters rate him a 6 and Vox's give him a 4.

The last places in the classification are occupied by Pablo Iglesias and Santiago Abascal. The leaders of the two extreme parties achieved, respectively, a score of 3.1 and 2.5.

In accordance with the criteria of The Trust Project

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  • Graphics
  • PSOE
  • Vox
  • PP
  • Pablo Iglesias
  • United We Can
  • Inés Arrimadas
  • ERC
  • Pedro Sánchez
  • Pablo Casado
  • PNV
  • Citizens
  • CUP
  • Santiago Abascal Conde

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