Donald Trump said the United States is in talks with China and India to help the two countries overcome the “serious problem” that has arisen in their relationship. The aggravation of the situation related to the territorial dispute of the parties, the US president called "a very difficult situation."

“We are negotiating with India, we are negotiating with China. They have a serious problem there. It came to real clashes, let's see what happens next. We will try to help them, ”the White House press service quoted the American leader as saying.

This is not the first time Trump has been offering mediation services to Beijing and New Delhi: he has already launched a similar initiative on May 29.

“I could do that. If they believe that this will help, I could act as a mediator or arbiter, ”the head of the White House said in response to the question whether his proposal for mediation between India and China, about which he wrote several days earlier, remains valid. on your Twitter.

Then Trump said that a “big conflict” is unfolding between the countries and that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unhappy with what is happening in his country's relations with China.

#WATCH "We have a big conflict going on between India & China, 2 countries with 1.4 billion people & very powerful militaries. India is not happy & probably China is not happy, I did speak to PM Modi, he is not in a good mood about what's going on with China ": US President Trump pic.twitter.com/1Juu3J2IQK

- ANI (@ANI) May 28, 2020

However, so far none of the parties has stated that they need the mediation of the United States.

Territorial issue

The dispute between Beijing and New Delhi about sovereignty over part of the mountainous territory on the border has been going on for several decades. The parties concluded a number of agreements designed to prevent an aggravation of the situation in this area, but they do not always help. In particular, in Ladakh, the situation on the line of actual control, replacing the border with China, escalated in early May, when there were several clashes involving about 250 Chinese and Indian soldiers. As a result, according to local Indian media, more than a hundred people were injured on both sides. At that time, Beijing and New Delhi transferred several infantry battalions to the border area. 

Negotiations between the parties took place on June 6, as a result it was decided to resolve the conflict peacefully, after which the Chinese and Indian military began to gradually abandon their positions.

However, already in mid-June, new major clashes occurred. According to Indian media, 20 Indian soldiers were killed in the Galvan River Valley, while 43 were killed and seriously wounded on the Chinese side. However, Beijing has not officially confirmed these data.

On the eve of India and China exchanged allegations of violation of the state border. According to Zhao Lijiang, spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Indian troops "crossed the line of actual control" and attacked Chinese officers and soldiers who arrived there for negotiations, which provoked "fierce" clashes.

Anurag Shrivastava, spokesman for the Indian Foreign Ministry, in turn, ruled out any violation of the line of actual control by the republic and said that the PRC’s accusations were “unacceptable.”

“We do not agree with the statement that India unilaterally changed the status quo. We, on the contrary, supported him, ”Srivastava emphasized.

  • Indian military near the highway leading to Ladakh, June 17, 2020
  • globallookpress.com
  • © Hindustan Times via www.imago-im / www.imago-images.de

At the same time, the parties do not name the official reasons for the increase in tension in the disputed areas. However, judging by media reports, China is outraged by the completion of the construction of the road providing access to the Depsang Plain, Galvan Valley, as well as the Karakoram Pass, which allows the Indian army to quickly transfer forces to the necessary locations.

"Bet on India"

In the current realities, Trump’s offer to become an intermediary between the two Asian powers looks like an attempt to “get political profit from this,” experts say. 

“Trump is well aware that the conflict between these countries will not lead to a full-scale confrontation primarily because both powers have a powerful deterrence tool - nuclear weapons. Now, in the conditions of the pre-election political race, the American leader needs to show at least some kind of foreign policy victory, since he is slipping in the main areas of American foreign policy. Therefore, the President of the United States strives to be a moderator between Beijing and New Delhi, realizing that the situation is stabilizing in any case, ”Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained in an interview with RT.

On the other hand, the head of the White House intends in this way to demonstrate his support for India, with which he has recently sought to expand contacts, says Blokhin.

“Indeed, in the confrontation with China and in the process of“ containing ”this country, Trump makes a huge bet on India: the Americans will invest in it to become a counterbalance to the PRC. For the same purpose, Washington specifically invented such a concept as the Indo-Pacific region, ”said the analyst.

As Andrei Sidorov, Dean of the Moscow State University Department of World Politics, emphasized in a conversation with RT, the United States “under Trump, India began to be very actively courted from literally all sides.

“All this is done on the assumption that New Delhi will be able to play a key role in building a new Pacific structure, acting as a counterweight to the growing power of China, which the Trump administration has declared the main threat to the United States in the foreseeable future. In the current scenario, when the coronavirus pandemic significantly undermined Trump’s entire strategy for isolating China, India’s role in this process is growing many times, ”the analyst believes.

At the same time, he predicts that China is likely to reject the US offer of mediation.

“The likelihood that a country like China will allow the US to mediate in a border conflict with India is tending to zero. China does not want to take part in such formats, being a self-sufficient power and possessing significant potential in order to independently understand the situation. And the Chinese side simply will not make its foreign policy dependent on such a third country as the United States, ”the expert explained.

  • US President Donald Trump
  • Reuters
  • © Leah Millis

Konstantin Blokhin also believes that Washington’s aggressive rhetoric against him may affect Beijing’s decision. 

“The US is now acting extremely hostile to the PRC, the relations of the parties have recently worsened even more. Washington actually launched a trade war with the Chinese side, accusing it of all sins, including the deliberate spread of the coronavirus, ”the analyst recalled.

However, he did not exclude that India could agree to the proposal of the head of the White House.

“India understands its value in Washington’s strategy to contain China and can support the initiative of the American side. Let me remind you that the American elites have adopted a consensus on countering the PRC, this is a red thread in the documents of US foreign policy planning, ”the expert said.

Andrei Sidorov, in turn, noted that for India it is important to improve the situation inside the country due to the foreign policy line.

“Without explicitly joining any particular state, India pursues a fairly balanced political course. But the Indian side can meet other countries if it is in its interests. And the case with the mediation of the United States just falls into this category, ”the analyst says.

However, Washington cannot intervene in the conflict without the consent of the PRC, since this country is “an important and self-sufficient player on the world stage,” Blokhin emphasizes.

“Without Beijing’s approval, the United States cannot get involved in a conflict. Otherwise, this can lead to unpredictable consequences for world stability, ”the analyst said.

At the same time, experts predict that the United States will try to use India as an additional lever of pressure on China.

"The confrontation between the US and China will increase, and Washington will try to attract New Delhi to a more active confrontation with China," concluded Blokhin.