According to Swanström, the information that North Korea has blown up the joint liaison office on the border with South Korea is, to say the least, worrying, but not very surprising. North Korea's relationship with South Korea and the Western world, and not least the United States, has gradually deteriorated since the failed US-North Korea summit in Vietnam last year.

The meeting, attended by both US President Donald Trump and North Korea's dictator Kim Jung Un, was unsuccessful and did not lead to any disarmament to North Korea's nuclear arsenal that the United States hoped for, nor to any relief from the economic sanctions, which North Korea wanted to see.

Debt South Korea

North Korea has since blamed the failure on South Korea, which had a role in preparing for the meeting. Niklas Swanström believes that North Korea is now trying in different ways to provoke new negotiations with the United States and more is waiting.     

"The risk of escalating the conflict is very high," he says.

The next step for North Korea would be to break the military agreement to cease "hostile acts" that North and South Korea entered into in 2018, Swanström believes. New missile launches are also likely, something North Korea has used in the past to strengthen its negotiating position.

- Not nuclear weapons, but maybe short-range missiles.

Military conflict not likely

However, some new summits between the US and North Korea are hardly relevant at this time, interest from the US is cool. 

- I don't think the US is ready to negotiate with North Korea so close to the election. There, North Korea has made a misjudgment, says Swanström, who adds that President Trump wants to avoid accusations of making concessions to North Korea and thus risk losing voters.   

But, although new provocations from North Korea are to be expected, Niklas Swanström does not believe that it will go as far as a genuine military conflict between the countries.

-No, both sides realize how dangerous it would be, he says.