It is the story of two markets in China. One in Wuhan, considered to be the epicenter of the global pandemic of Covid-19, and the other in Beijing, which could be at the origin of the dreaded second wave of the epidemic. More than a hundred new cases of contamination related to this market have been noted for a week in the Chinese capital, announced the town hall, Tuesday, June 16. She called the rebound in Covid-19 infections "extremely serious".

The parallel with the market in Wuhan is tempting. In both cases, these are "crowded places, where social distancing is difficult to apply, and where there is a certain humidity to which is added the use of refrigeration systems to store food. the ideal mixture of an environment favorable to the survival of the coronavirus and of circumstances which facilitate its spread ", summarizes Serge Morand, specialist in the transmission of pathogens at the CNRS, who works at the Center for International Cooperation in Agronomic Research for Development, contacted by France 24.

A disproportionate market is measured by the coronavirus

But the gigantic size of Xinfadi's market, located in the south of Beijing, makes any comparison difficult. It covers 112 hectares, spread over 2,000 traders under the supervision of 1,200 permanent employees of the site. Every day, around 1,200 tonnes of fish, 18,000 tonnes of vegetables and 20,000 tonnes of fruit are sold there, making it the most important agricultural market on the Asian continent.

This is one of the reasons why the Beijing authorities consider this source of contamination to be very worrying. The coronavirus could hardly find a worse place to reappear in China. "This market delivers at least 70% of all vegetables used by businesses in the capital, which means that health officials fear that the virus has already had time to spread in the city," said Professor William Keevil of environmental health at the University of Southampton, contacted by France 24. In addition, "let's not forget that if there are about a hundred confirmed cases, we must add asymptomatic people who are contagious and we could get the coronavirus out, "adds Serge Morand. 

This rebound in contamination is also a "particularly serious" development in the eyes of the authorities because it occurs in Beijing, and not only because of the density of population. "The authorities were surprised because the Chinese capital was one of the last Chinese cities to maintain strict measures to contain the spread, which demonstrates the ability of the virus to slip through the safety net put in place by the China ", notes Serge Morand.

Beijing protected but poorly immune

The capital is also one of the Chinese cities where measures to contain the spread have been most strictly applied. Beijing was also "very quickly isolated from the initial sources of contamination," recalls Julian Tang, respiratory disease specialist at the University of Leicester, contacted by France 24. A force at the height of the pandemic which could now turn against its inhabitants because "the collective immunity rate to the disease is very low compared to other places in the country more exposed to the virus, which means that the potential for spread is much greater", notes the British expert.

Hence the importance of the containment measures taken in around thirty residential areas of the city and the decision to close the sports and cultural sites. The town hall also called on residents, Tuesday, June 16, not to leave the city. But the most urgent "is to know if the authorities will manage to quickly trace the source of the contamination, because they will be able to trace precisely all those who have been exposed to it," says Serge Morand. 

Beijing, however, leaves with an advantage over Wuhan in this race against the clock. "The authorities know what they are dealing with and they can also, if necessary, use the facilities [such as hospitals that came out of the ground in less than a week, editor's note] which were built in 2003 to deal with the epidemic of Sras ", underlines Julian Tang, who is hopeful that Beijing will be able to control this sudden rebound in contamination. 

Beijing and beyond

For him, the main risk rather comes from carriers of the virus, asymptomatic or having only mild symptoms, who may have left town. "She's the big unknown at the moment," he notes. We do not know if there are any, how many there are, and especially where they are going. "If they go to other big cities where measures will be quickly put in place to deal with this rebound of contamination, the situation can be contained, but if they go to rural areas that are much less well monitored , the epidemic can start again, "says the researcher from the University of Leicester. 

The risk of exporting the coronavirus out of Beijing remains, however, less significant than when it appeared in Wuhan ... for a simple question of timing. "It was the New Year holiday season, and it was one of the periods when the Chinese move the most, which has greatly contributed to the spread of the virus," recalls Julian Tang. Nothing like this this time, which could limit the risk of seeing a second wave sweep over the country.

The fact remains, whether contained or not, that rebound in contamination "is something that will inevitably be repeated around the world in the next six months," notes Julian Tang. The Xinfadi market represents, for him, a model of the foci of Covid-19 to come as deconfinement takes place around the world. "They will appear especially in large cities, which experience a low collective immunity rate, in highly populated places such as markets or public transport, where the population will gradually pay less attention to the recommendations of social distancing" , he predicts. The only unknown for him is where exactly the coronavirus will hit next time.

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