The plight of the Libyans in the hands of Moscow and Ankara

In Libya, where the balance of power in the conflict has been reversed in favor of the government of national unity (GNA) camp, recognized by the international community, at the expense of Marshal Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) , all eyes are now turned to foreign countries.

More specifically, towards the two main international players in the power struggle in Libya, namely Turkey, whose direct intervention in the conflict, in support of the GNA, sealed the failure of the ANL offensive launched in April 2019 in the capital Tripoli (West), and Russia, which supports the Haftar camp less openly.

On the ground, government troops had to slow their advance, after regaining control of western Libya. And to continue their counter-offensive to retake the city of Sirte, a strategic lock towards the East and key oil installations in the country, still in the hands of Camp Haftar.

Long on the military initiative, the marshal is forced to give up his ambitions, even if Libya remains de facto cut in half. It is in this particular context that the Turkish and Russian sponsors are trying to negotiate behind the scenes the future of a country rich in hydrocarbons, but plagued by chaos since the fall of Colonel Gaddafi in 2011.

Russians and Turks prepare for the post- Haftar

"Moscow and Ankara are currently positioning themselves for the second phase of the conflict, which opened after the failure of Haftar, and seem interested in finding a compromise, but it is still too early to know what they prepare and what their final objectives are, "Riccardo Fabiani, project director at the International Crisis Group, explains to France 24.

Despite the complexity of the relations between Moscow and Ankara, also supporters of rival camps in Syria, and thanks to the cordial understanding displayed by President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the two powers, which have no interest in confronting each other directly on Libyan soil, could find a compromise.

"Russia and Turkey have complex relations, as we can see in the Syrian or Libyan theater of war, but these two powers have close contacts and shared interests, even if they diverge on certain issues, underlines Riccardo Fabiani As far as Libya is concerned, Moscow and Ankara have a lot of discussions, they notably organized a summit in January with a view to finding an agreement, in vain, because Marshal Haftar opposed it. "

"There is diplomatic unrest and a desire on their part to find an agreement, but there are many uncontrollable parameters, between regional supporters and local political actors, which complicate the situation," notes Riccardo Fabiani. 

The internationalization of the conflict does not stop at the Russians and the Turks, since Qatar also supports Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, while Egypt and the United Arab Emirates support Marshal Haftar, not to mention the presence of 'Western players such as France or the United States, whose influence is less on the Libyan dossier, however.

Emad Badi, Libyan expert at the Atlantic Council, interviewed by AFP, Turks and Russians "can find common ground both politically and militarily, by determining spheres of influence", namely the west of the country for Ankara, and east for Moscow. Especially since, given the balance of forces, the GNA cannot regain control of all of eastern Libya, "said France 24, Rachid Khechana, editor of the Libyan review Chououn, and former director of the Maghreb Center for Studies on Libya.

Unless the two countries agree on a more global and international sharing, for example by leaving the hands free to the Turks in Libya and vice versa for the Russians in Syria. And a sign that Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan does not intend to give up his influence found in what was an Ottoman territory until 1912, media close to the power reported on Friday that Ankara could establish two bases in Libya, one southwest of Tripoli and the other in the port city of Misrata.

Marshal Haftar, an obstacle to any hope of peace?

The fact remains that we are still far from an agreement. Turkey announced on Monday that it will continue talks with Russia to try to achieve a ceasefire in Libya, despite the cancellation on Sunday of a visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Istanbul. and his Defense counterpart Sergei Choigou. A visit canceled at the last minute and without any official explanation being provided.

Press release on the visit of the Russian delegation https://t.co/MKzKJ9piTE

According to the Turkish pro-government daily Yeni Safak, the terms of the cease-fire proposed by Moscow in Ankara in preparation for the visit of the two Russian ministers were similar to those contained in the peace initiative for Libya, proposed on June 6 by Egypt, support of Marshal Haftar. An initiative rejected as a whole by Turkey, more favorable to a cease-fire sponsored by the United Nations, and by the GNA.

“The Egyptian initiative is not taken seriously in Libya, in particular by those who reject Haftar, explains Ismaïl Mokhtar, political scientist based in Tripoli, in France 24. They do not believe it because on the one hand it emanates from Cairo, which is a support from the very beginning of the marshal, and therefore a party involved in the conflict, and then because this initiative only appeared after the setbacks of the ANL, which clearly shows that it does not it is not a peace initiative, but a Haftar rescue operation ”. 

The Egyptian initiative being stillborn, the Libyans are likely to be offered, in the coming weeks, an agreement drawn up by Moscow and Ankara whose big loser would be Marshal Haftar.

“There have been many peace conferences for Libya, but none have been successful because Haftar obstructed it. He will have no peace in this country, as long as he remains in the Libyan political and military landscape, ”concludes Ismaïl Mokhtar.  

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