Vienna (AFP)

Iran faces delicate discussions about nuclear activities at meetings starting Monday at IAEA: Tehran's refusal to allow access to two suspicious sites adds to tensions created by the increase in the stock of enriched uranium.

Two reports produced in early June by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) fuel concerns about the future of the 2015 nuclear agreement signed with Iran, and in the process of disintegration since the United States s '' were withdrawn unilaterally in 2018.

These reports will be at the heart of this week's meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors, which is exceptionally organized by videoconference.

In a first document consulted by AFP, the nuclear gendarme notes the deadlock in which, after more than a year, his requests for an explanation to the Islamic Republic about undeclared nuclear material and activities by Tehran in the early 2000s.

Three suspect sites located in Iran interest the UN agency which requested access to two of them in January. Unsuccessful so far.

The blockage "causes serious concern" the agency, the report said, and could be punished by the adoption this week of a resolution by the Board of Governors reminding Iran of its obligations.

This type of approach is rare, the last critical resolution of the IAEA on Iran going back to 2012. If at this stage a resolution would have above all a symbolic significance, it would add to the climate of discussions between Iran and the community international.

The alleged activities of which the UN agency wants to verify the nature would have taken place more than 15 years ago, and nothing indicates that they continue or constitute any threat at present.

- Gradual disengagement -

But in addition to the fact that the inspectors want to have a clean heart of it, Iran will face the accusation of violating its obligations towards the IAEA if it continues to refuse these inspections or if it is proven that the country has conducted an undeclared nuclear program on these sensitive sites.

The file could then be transmitted to the UN Security Council.

Analysts at the American think tank Arms Control point to the risk of Donald Trump's "politicization" of this dossier by the United States engaged in a policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran.

At the same time, Washington urges the states still party to the 2015 nuclear agreement (Germany, France, Great Britain, Russia, China) to follow suit and denounce the text.

So far these countries have supported at arm's length this agreement which is no longer hanging by a thread since in retaliation for the re-establishment of American sanctions, Tehran has multiplied the breaches of its commitments.

Thus, for a year, the Islamic Republic has been able to increase its stock of enriched uranium, raise its enrichment rate to 4.5%, against the 3.67% set in the agreement, and increase the number and performance of these centrifuges.

A second report written by the IAEA at the beginning of June notes that the accumulation of uranium exceeds nearly eight times the authorized limit.

But, unlike the litigation on past activities, these sprains are strictly documented by the agency, whose inspections continue unhindered and without setbacks linked to the Covid-19 crisis.

This verification regime, which keeps the Iranian nuclear program under observation, is one of the major achievements of the 2015 agreement, argue its defenders.

In addition, despite the differences observed over the past year, the enrichment rate has remained stable and is still far from the 90% threshold required for the manufacture of an atomic bomb.

But the United States regularly tightens the noose on the agreement.

In late May, they ended key waivers on international cooperation on Iranian civil nuclear power. Concretely, the countries involved in these projects which have no military vocation risk being sanctioned by Washington if they do not withdraw. This concerns above all Russia.

The US administration is also pressuring Europeans to extend the embargo on international arms sales to the Islamic Republic, which is to be lifted gradually from October. Tehran warned that extending the embargo would permanently kill the international nuclear agreement, with the danger that IAEA inspections would cease.

© 2020 AFP