London (AFP)

The UK economy suffered a record 20.4% collapse in April during the containment put in place to stem the pandemic, but will start to head out of the water with the gradual restart of activity.

This fall in gross domestic product (GDP) over a month comes after a dip of 5.8% in March, according to figures released Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS).

"The decline in GDP in April is the strongest ever seen in the United Kingdom, more than three times stronger than the previous month and almost ten times more than the sharpest drop before Covid-19", underlines Jonathan Athow , statistician at the ONS.

In summary, "in April, the economy shrank by about 25% from February," he observes.

Such a shock is stronger than those felt during the Great Depression or the 2008 financial crisis, according to Andrew Wishart, an economist at Capital Economics.

April is the first full month of containment on March 23, which brought economic activity to a halt in the country, the second most bereaved in the world with more than 41,000 deaths tested positive for coronavirus.

All the major sectors of the economy have melted, whether services, industry or construction.

Pubs, education, health and car sales were among the most affected. Foreign trade was not spared with a fall in exports and imports.

"We have always known that (this pandemic) would be a very serious health crisis but would also produce a very strong economic shock," said Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

- Has the worst happened? -

In the three months from February to April, GDP fell 10.4% from the previous three months and the United Kingdom is preparing for a historic recession.

After a 2% drop in activity in the first quarter, economists expect an unprecedented collapse in the second quarter, which could reach 35% (still compared to the previous quarter), according to OBR, the institute public publishing the estimates on behalf of the government.

"Given the fact that containment started to be relaxed in May, April will mark a trough for GDP. So we have had the worst," said Wishart.

"What we want now is to work on a slow economic recovery (...) Confidence will return and we will see a rebound in the United Kingdom," said Boris Johnson on Friday.

The restrictions are now gradually lifted and all businesses will reopen from Monday. It will be necessary to wait at least July for pubs, bars, restaurants, hairdressers ... And probably even later for gymnasiums, shows and other gathering places.

"The recovery will take time as restrictions are only slowly lifted and businesses and consumers will remain cautious," said Wishart.

Above all, the budget bill and the social consequences will be felt from now on.

This fall in activity is accompanied by a surge in unemployment with a wave of job cuts which is constantly gaining momentum and which affects many sectors, especially the airline industry.

Economists anticipate a rebound in activity from the second half, but question its magnitude.

Finance Minister Rishi Sunak and the Governor of the Bank of England (BoE) Andrew Bailey have recently dampened hopes for a rapid recovery, forecasting still difficult months.

Calling the fall "dramatic", the governor however estimated Friday at the microphone of Sky News that it was "not a surprise".

According to him, the signs of a recovery are starting to be felt but caution must remain in order.

"So we are ready to act, we are doing it. We have already taken very important steps," he said.

© 2020 AFP