Paris (AFP)

In "small state of grace" at the national level, Edouard Philippe has only a thin mattress ahead of his communist competitor in his stronghold of Le Havre, where the unknown of abstention spices the second round of the municipal elections and creates uncertainty about its future.

Each of the camps finds reason to hope on reading the expected Ifop-Fiducial survey for Paris Normandie and Sud Radio published on Thursday, but the results of which were already circulating the day before. With 53% of the voting intentions for Edouard Philippe on June 28, against 47% for the Communist deputy Jean-Paul Lecoq, the Prime Minister is placed in a favorable tie, without however winning his opponent.

"Even if it's relatively tight, it allows Edouard Philippe to see it coming. 53-47, it's still clear", analysis from AFP Frédéric Dabi, deputy general manager of Ifop.

Arriving at the head of the first round with 43.6%, Mr. Philippe "capitalizes on his dynamics while arithmetic is not so favorable for him as that", continues Mr. Dabi, pointing in particular to the low theoretical voice reserve of the outgoing, which had already gathered under its banner an arc going from the right to the center-left.

According to the survey, the Prime Minister recovers a fringe of the electorate of the environmental candidate Alexis Deck (8.28%) who seems to be divided fairly between a vote Philippe (46%) and Lecoq (54%).

While a defeat would force Mr. Philippe to leave Matignon, his entourage does not hide his relief in view of these six points of difference, despite the precautions imposed by a sample limited to 600 people.

"The second round, we always imagined it was very tight and Le Havre was always a difficult city to win", recalls a relative.

Mr. Philippe, educated by the experience of a primary lost in 2016 alongside Alain Juppé, also knows that an improvement can "melt like snow in the sun", according to this same friend.

Le Havre also seems relatively impervious to the "small state of grace", dixit Mr. Dabi, that lives Mr. Philippe at the national level. The polls saw his popularity rating soar in favor of the health crisis, far ahead of Emmanuel Macron, a majority of French people now approving his action.

"But the springs of the municipal vote are complex, and are not those of a popularity rating," warns Mr. Dabi.

- The unknown of abstention -

Above all, the study does not measure the level of abstention, structurally high in Le Havre (62% in 2014, 53% in the first round 2020) and which could be even more due to the health context.

Mr. Lecoq, who gathered 35.88% of the votes in the 1st round, beyond his expectations, intends to draw from the pool of abstainers in working-class neighborhoods where he achieved high scores in March. "We have the strongest reserve of votes and Edouard Philippe knows it," he noted to AFP.

"The vote + against + Philippe can still increase and make the difference at the end", he still wants to believe, "motivated" by "the dynamics" that he observes in the Ifop study.

The ice is therefore fine for Mr. Philippe who should start his campaign next week with an interview in the local press, according to his entourage. "He wants to speak to the people of Le Havre first," said the same source.

Having returned to Le Havre several times discreetly since the deconfinement on May 11, sometimes at the cost of going back and forth in the evening, Mr. Philippe is however hampered by the epidemic which, even in decline, prevents him from waging a full-blown campaign outside.

He knows that compliance with the rules he promotes as Prime Minister - physical distancing, ban on assembly ... - will be particularly scrutinized. "As soon as he steps outside, it becomes complicated to escape the solicitations," notes a source from his campaign, saying that last weekend he had to work on refusing selfies.

While everyone will have to be inventive, perhaps he will then be inspired by Mr. Lecoq who plans to settle down with "truck and sound system at the foot of the buildings" to win the vote.

© 2020 AFP