The Egyptian government is monitoring the latest developments in the Libyan crisis, after its retired ally Major General Khalifa Haftar failed in his military campaign against the capital, Tripoli.
And what indicates Cairo's dissatisfaction with its ally Haftar, the latter failed to hold a bilateral face-to-face meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and the Speaker of the Tobruk Parliament Aqila Saleh seemed to have been more close to Sisi, and he received more attention during the two men meeting with him, according to media sources .
Egypt is promoting the Cairo Declaration Initiative launched by Sisi in the presence of Haftar and Saleh, and includes a proposal for a ceasefire that begins last Monday and the election of a new presidential council by the Libyan people under the supervision of the United Nations, but the reconciliation government in Tripoli rejects the initiative.
Analysts and politicians believe that Egypt started searching for other options after the forces of the reconciliation government approached Sirte, which might lead to the replacement of Haftar in order to continue its influence in Libya, especially in the east of the country, after the consecutive defeats of Haftar despite the unlimited support financially, militarily and politically received from his allies.
Haftar does not represent the East
Muhammad Al-Durrat, the Al-Wefaq government’s advisor on American relations, considered that the Egyptian initiative reflects Egypt’s desire to make clear to its partners in Libya that Haftar is no longer a spearhead in representing the eastern region, and that is why they showed it in this way.
He added to Al-Jazeera Net that "Egypt is now trying to save its role in the political equation in Libya, so that Cairo does not show a losing party on the negotiating table, but rather seeks to appear in the dress of the negotiating party for peace."
Mohamed Al-Darrat said that it is difficult to predict the alternative characters of Haftar, indicating that Egypt may manufacture multiple personalities, including politicians and military personnel, in conjunction with its disposal of Haftar and Aqila Saleh and all who obstruct its goal in strengthening its influence, especially after the failure of the military project that may cause it to be taken out of the scene Libyan.
He pointed to Sisi’s communication with the United States and European countries, trying to stop Turkish support and target the strong relationship between Turkey and the Libyan government in confronting the attack on Tripoli, and his future fear on the stage of construction and reconstruction, so that Egypt does not have to compete with Turkey in Libya’s projects after getting involved in the war .
Cairo's strategy is wrong
Member of the Johns Hopkins University Politics Institute, Hafez Al-Ghuwail confirmed that Egypt's strategy in the Libyan file was wrong from the beginning, although Cairo had previously and for decades been trying to agree between the Libyans.
Al-Ghuwail added, "Unfortunately Egypt listened to the UAE and supported its position in Libya with the support of Haftar with some weapons and equipment in addition to political support, and cut all its relations with the Al-Wefaq government."
Al-Ghuwail considered that the Egyptian policy should extend its hand to the Al-Wefaq government, which will be ready to reach fair security, economic and political understandings with it, and achieve guarantees for it.
Haftar excluded
The writer and political analyst Abdullah Al-Kabeer considered that Haftar's failure in his military campaign against Tripoli and its defeat may not lead to the completion of his project completely, due to his association with regional and international powers that will not allow the project to collapse after Haftar's failure.
Al-Kabeer added to Al-Jazeera Net that "Haftar will be quietly excluded from the scene, and they may find an alternative that preserves the cohesion of its forces and in order to return to the path of political negotiation."
Al-Kabeer believes that Haftar will not have any political or military role because the political forces will not negotiate with him, as well as his supporters being disturbed by his failure to abide by all the treaties that they sought in several international initiatives.
Al-Kabeer pointed out that Egypt is working to maintain its influence in eastern Libya, by presenting Aqila Saleh and withdrawing Haftar.
"As Cairo realized that Hifter was defeated and that she lost the effective lines of communication with the political forces in the Libyan West, while strengthening the Turkish presence, which is reflected in its role in the next stage of the conflict, it will try to strengthen this weakness through Russia and France, who can cover the Egyptian deficit with their international influence," he added. ".
Absent alternative
In turn, the head of the Astrolabe Center for Politics, Abdul Salam Al-Rajhi, considered that Haftar will not withdraw from the scene because of the support of some supportive states that do not fully agree on an alternative, even in light of Haftar’s utter failure.
He added, "Even if Egypt supports another character, a substitute for Haftar, other countries - such as France or Russia - may still support Haftar, because he is implementing the agenda of his supporters in Libya, despite their differing interests."
Al-Rajhi believes in his statement to Al-Jazeera Net that Egypt's next strategy is to continue passive intervention and try to abort any civil democratic project in Libya, because Cairo sees the success of these democratic projects as a failure of the Egyptian administration.
He pointed out that Egypt's goal is for Libya to be in chaos until Cairo continues to interfere in its affairs and exploit its resources, noting that the ruling class in Egypt, which has influence and power, is in conciliation with the UAE that leads the Libyan file through the Egyptian vision.