Mahmoud Refaat - Cairo

The accelerating developments in Libya have raised questions about Egypt's different options in dealing with the crisis. Will it bet on all its cards on its ally, Khalifa Haftar, or will it leave the door of return unattended in caring for both parties to the conflict instead of biasing behind the retired general?

Hifter announced - in a speech last Monday from his headquarters in Benghazi (eastern Libya) - to stop the work of the Skhirat political agreement concluded in 2015 and considered it "part of the past" and delegate the country's leadership at this stage to the military institution that he heads.

The move came after military setbacks that put Haftar in a difficult situation after he chose on April 4, 2019 to violate the UN-mediated dialogue process with the internationally recognized National Accord government, and launched a military attack on Tripoli.

After the overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi’s regime in 2011, Cairo was one of the sponsors of a political solution to the Libyan crisis, but over time, alongside the Emirates, they continued to support Haftar, thanks to which their military fortunes improved.

Despite Cairo affirming its commitment to what it called "the principle of searching for a political settlement to the Libyan conflict," it considered - according to a Foreign Ministry statement on Tuesday - Al-Wefaq forces "a terrorist supported by Turkey and no negotiations with it" to keep Egypt facing difficult equations with the escalation of the possibility of Al-Wefaq control and the defeat of Haftar.

In this regard, political and military analysts monitored - in separate statements for Al Jazeera Net - three scenarios about Egypt's future engagement with the Libyan crisis.

These scenarios consisted of continuing to support Haftar while seeking to rearrange Libya politically and recrystallize his forces militarily, or restore the Egyptian role in trying to resolve the crisis instead of supporting an illegitimate party, or using various parties to the conflict, including Haftar’s camp with the support of the Speaker of the Tobruk (East) Parliament Aqila Saleh to reach the position closest to the interests of Egypt.

Analysts agreed to exclude direct military intervention by Egypt to tip Haftar, especially with Turkey entering as a major player, or to support the scenario of dividing Libya in light of the difficulty of the military solution to international changes.

Haftar is not enough
Military expert, retired Major General Talaat Muslim, considered that Haftar is not enough for Egypt to be reliable on the coming period, noting that Haftar's experience and his repeated talk about his ability to control Tripoli proved his failure and confirms that his forces have achieved nothing on the ground.

He added that Cairo's support should not be related to Haftar's person in light of his lack of steps forward, explaining, "Egypt is not required to search for the one who made a mistake, but to search for the error itself and fix it."

In the event of Haftar's defeat, the military expert said that the Egyptian scenario is "intensifying vigilance on the western border (with Libya)", ruling out direct military intervention, as long as Egypt is not dependent on sufficient Libyan military forces.

Major General Muslim added: "There must be stronger forces inside Libya to support the army because Haftar did not achieve what was expected of him for months."

He pointed out that time is not in the interest of Egypt, and therefore it needs to re-arrange Libya politically and re-establish it militarily, so that any actions from the other party (the Al-Wefaq government) can be stopped in the future.

He also called on the military expert to leave the bargains to deal with the winner of Al-Sarraj, while reviewing the external position and searching for international diplomatic support from other countries, to strengthen the position of the Libyan army (Haftar's forces).

The tendency of contradictions
, in turn, the Egyptian researcher Ahmed Mawlana emphasized that Haftar is part of the Emirati project in the region, which Sisi represents one of its pillars, and is based on the systematic destruction of the capabilities of countries that witnessed the Arab Spring revolutions, and replacing their systems with authoritarian regimes.

The researcher pointed out that Haftar's failure to control Tripoli does not mean the collapse of his project, as it still controls large areas in Libya.

In the event that it is not possible to achieve a military settlement in his favor, the researcher says, "A political process will be activated, of which Haftar will be the biggest beneficiary, while playing on the string of contradictions between the components of the Al-Wefaq government, in order to co-opt some of them in favor of Haftar, so that he can achieve political gains that he could not achieve with military force."

The researcher added that Egypt will provide more military support to Haftar if it feels its retreat, while its victory will represent an increase in Egyptian influence in Libya, which is an unlikely scenario.

As for direct military intervention to tip Haftar, the researcher emphasized his "difficulty now" because this has many international accounts, which Sisi takes into account, who has not yet ventured with army forces outside the country, in addition to that Haftar numerically does not need support to confront his opponents, and the numerical need comes From the mercenaries of Darfur and Chad.


A strategic alliance As for the Egyptian researcher in international relations, Mohamed Hamed, he confirmed that the Cairo alliance and a strategic pit, because Cairo sees him as a strong person who can defend Libya and protect its national security, citing his ability to "arrest Hisham Ashmawi," the former army officer whom Cairo accused of terrorism. And announced his recent execution.

He expected Cairo to keep Haftar's support and enable him to control the capital and exclude the Saraj government backed by Ankara, after the latter managed to change the situation in favor of this internationally recognized government.

The researcher believed that the situation in Libya will remain as it is and every team will remain dedicated to those who support it, until it is moved by the international community that manages and does not solve the conflict.

He ruled out military intervention or changing the Egyptian strategy, saying, "Whoever wanted more direct intervention should have done so before Turkish intervention."

Aqila Saleh
In a context not far away, the Libyan Nizar Karakish, director of the Bayan Center for Libyan Studies in Istanbul, pointed out the inconsistency of information about Egypt's position on the apparent dispute between the Speaker of the Parliament of Tobruk Aqila Saleh and Haftar.

"Saleh aspires to continue to preside over the Tobruk parliament with tribal cover, and Haftar wants to see a military ruling for him from the institutions of the state," Karkesh said.

A few days ago, Saleh (the largest supporter of Haftar) proposed that a presidential council be reconstituted by consensus or election, and under international supervision, without his response receiving a response.

"Does Egypt balance the two men, or does it support Saleh's wife (to stop) Jumfur's ambition, or does Haftar and al-Sisi work to separate the Libyan East and divide Libya?" Asked the Libyan analyst.

In this regard, Karkesh explained that following up on the events may indicate that Cairo knows the difficulty of the military solution in the face of these international changes, and is trying to reach all parties to use its political ambitions to reach the status closest to the interests of Egypt.