President Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election despite Democrat Hillary Clinton's lead in terms of the number of votes cast by nearly three million.
Trump won 63 million votes, or 46.1% of the electorate, while Clinton garnered 65.8 million votes, or 48.1% of the electorate.
Trump won because of the nature of the electoral college system, which disintegrated America's presidential elections to 51 independent elections (the fifty states + Washington, DC), and Trump had the advantage according to the calculations of the electoral college, as he obtained 306 votes against 232 for Clinton.
This leaves a major role for minorities in resolving the electoral battle through the ability to resolve swing states ’battles, which is credited with the preponderance of one candidate’s victory over another.
The black party affiliation of black
Americans has a long history of belonging and approaching the Republican and Democratic parties, and after the end of the civil war in 1865 the blacks considered themselves Republicans, it was President Abraham Lincoln's Republican Party that initiated the proclamation of the abolition of slavery and the beginning of the civil war to liberate slaves.
Democrats opposed granting any freedom or political rights to blacks for a hundred years after the end of the civil war, and no blacks were allowed to participate in the party's general conference until 1924.
Had it not been for the civil rights legislation being linked to President John Kennedy and later Democrats Lyndon Johnson, blacks would not have come close to the Democratic Party in the mid-1960s.
Since the mid-1960s, blacks have voted for Democrats, President Johnson won 94% of blacks in the 1964 elections, and during the 2016 elections only 8% of blacks voted for Trump, while 88% of them voted for Hillary Clinton.
Map of black voter turnout 2020
The black population last year reached 43.8 million people, or 13.4% of the US population of 328 million in the same year.
Blacks are prevalent in all American states, but their percentage differs greatly from one state to another.
While the proportion of the black population in several states does not exceed 1%, such as Montana and Idaho, the same percentage reached 48% in Washington, D.C., 39% in Mississippi, 34% in Georgia and Louisiana, and 33% in Maryland.
The presence of a large proportion of the black population does not necessarily mean that the state votes for the Democrats, as the nature of the ethnic and racial composition of the rest of the population plays an important role in determining the electoral state’s identity.
The southern states known as the "Evangelical Belt" vote for Republicans by a comfortable majority, despite the presence of a large majority of blacks, as in states such as Georgia, Mississippi, and Louisiana.
The same applies to the state of Texas, which is the first state in terms of black population of 4 million people, or 14% of the total population, and Trump obtained the votes of Texas with 52.3% of the votes.
Black voices may resolve swing states,
but black voices still play a big role in weighting the winner in a number of states where the votes of Republicans and Democrats converge, and the results fluctuate between the two parties.
Four states are Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where no Republican candidate can win a presidential election without winning at least two of them.
Florida's black population is 3.8 million, or 18% of the population, and state votes went to Donald Trump in 2016, gaining 49.2% of the vote compared to 47.8% for Hillary Clinton.
The latest polls indicate that Democrat Joe Biden has advanced 48% to 44% for Trump, and the mobilization of black voters with rates greater than their participation in the 2016 elections prevented the Democrats from winning Florida.
As for North Carolina, the number of blacks is 2.4 million, or 24% of its total population, and in 2016 the state voted for Trump in 49.8% compared to 46.2% for Clinton.
The latest polls show that Trump and Biden have equal chances, and both achieve 45% of the vote.
As for the state of Michigan - which Trump won by a narrow margin of 0.02% or less than 11,000 votes - the number of blacks in it reaches 1.6 million people, or 15% of its total population, and the latest polls show Biden outperforming 50% compared to 42% in favor of Trump.
The same applies to Pennsylvania, where Trump won in 2016 by 48.1% compared to 47.5% for Clinton.
The number of blacks in the state is 1.7 million people, or 13% of its total population, and the latest polls indicate Biden's progress, achieving 48% compared to 47% for Trump.
On the other hand, the murder of George Floyd prompted Democrats to redouble their efforts to register black voters to have a greater role in the 2020 elections, and the Democratic Party machine strongly supports efforts to register black citizens in electoral records, especially in swing states.
Blacks are expected to redouble their efforts if Joe Biden chooses a black woman for vice president as is widely expected.