Libya: end of game for Marshal Haftar?

After the canons, diplomacy? The cards have been shuffled in Libya, where the balance of power has been upset since the takeover of all of western Libya announced by troops loyal to the Union Government (GNA), recognized by the international community, at the expense of the Libyan National Army (ANL) of Marshal Khalifa Haftar.

The strongman of eastern Libya, who claimed a few months ago that he controlled 80% of a country that has been in chaos since the fall of Colonel Gaddafi's regime in 2011, has suffered a series of setbacks in recent weeks.

This major turning point in the conflict which sealed the failure of the Marshal's offensive on Tripoli, launched in April 2019, encouraged the GNA forces to continue their advance towards the east. On June 6, they attacked the city of Sirte, a strategic lock between east and west, located 450 km east of the capital, and in the hands of the ANL since January.

A   defensive marshal

Long on the military initiative, Khalifa Haftar is now on the defensive in a very unfavorable context. The tide turned against him in early 2020, following Turkey's official involvement in the conflict in support of the government forces of Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. The withdrawal in mid-May of several hundred Russian mercenaries from the Tripoli front ultimately weakened it.

"Undeniably, the majority of the successes recorded on the ground by the GNA were facilitated by Turkish military and technological support, explains Rachid Khechana, editor-in-chief of the Libyan review Chououn, and former director of the Maghreb Center for Studies on the Libya, interviewed by France 24. This allowed them to loosen the noose around the capital which was surrounded by Haftar's forces, and therefore to rebalance the balance on the ground. "

It is in this context that Egypt, which is one of the main foreign supporters with Russia and the United Arab Emirates, flew to the aid of the Marshal by proposing, on June 6, a cease-fire from Monday 8 June and a road map for Libya. A sign that the Haftar camp is only considering the military solution to the Libyan conflict.

If the cease-fire was accepted by the marshal, present in Cairo on Saturday, the GNA, which slowed down the progress of its combatants towards Sirte, has not yet followed it up. Khaled al-Mechri, president of the Tripoli parliament, rejected the plan he said emanated from a defeated force, according to al-Jazeera.

Called "the Cairo Declaration", the initiative presented by President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi, and supported by the Russians and the Emiratis, notably includes the creation of an elected presidential council in Libya, a call for negotiations in Geneva , the withdrawal of all foreign fighters, and the dismantling of militias and the handing over of weapons. 

Aguila  Saleh, an  alternative  to Khalifa  Haftar  ?

While the hour now seems to be for negotiation, can the Marshal incarnate the man of the situation in the eyes of his foreign sponsors? 

"We are already seeing Egypt and Russia working together on political alternatives to Haftar that could save their spheres of influence in eastern Libya," said Tarek Megerisi, political analyst at the European Council on International Relations, interviewed by the AFP.

The very noted presence in Cairo of Aguila Saleh, president of the elected Parliament based in Cyrenaica (east), at the time of the announcement of the Sissi plan for Libya, is a clue which seems to play against Kahlifa Haftar. 

Much more open than the marshal to dialogue with the rival power installed in Tripoli, Aguila Saleh also met in late May with the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergey Lavrov. They discussed together "the need to urgently launch a constructive dialogue involving all the Libyan political forces". 

While so far, all attempts at cessation of hostilities have failed, despite the efforts of the UN, the profile of Aguila Saleh could encourage the resumption of dialogue as the GNA forces approach the "oil crescent".  

In April, Aguila Saleh had proposed an eight-point plan to end the crisis in which a new Presidential Council would collectively assume the functions of supreme commander of the armed forces, while a Constitution for the country was being drafted. A way to send back to his barracks Khalifa Haftar, who had proclaimed on April 27 that he had a "mandate of the people" to govern Libya alone. 

"Moscow and Ankara could agree on sharing Libya as in Syria"

"The appearance on the scene of Aguila Saleh, who maintains old relations with Moscow, shows that the pro-Haftar powers are starting to study the alternatives to the marshal to open the way to inter-Libyan negotiations, since, given the balance forces, the GNA cannot regain control of all of eastern Libya, "said Rachid Khechana.

And to conclude: "If the negotiations, blocked so far by Haftar, resume, they will start from zero or almost, that is to say where they were before the offensive of the ANL on Tripoli, while behind the scenes, Moscow and Ankara could agree on a division of Libya as in Syria ". 

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