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08 June 2020 Istat forecasts "a marked contraction of GDP in 2020", with a fall of 8.3%, and "a partial recovery in 2021", estimating a rise of 4.6%. The Institute, in the Perspectives for the Italian economy, underlines how "the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic and the consequent containment measures decided by the Government" have "determined a profound impact". An "unprecedented shock", the quantification of which is characterized by "large levels of uncertainty". Compared to the previous estimates for 2020 "overall the downward revision of the GDP was equal to about 9 percentage points". Istat expects a marked contraction in GDP in 2020 (-8.3%) and a partial recovery in 2021 (+ 4.6%). In the current year, the fall in GDP will be mainly determined by internal demand net of stocks (-7.2 percentage points) conditioned by the fall in household and ISP consumption (-8.7%) and the collapse in investments (- 12.5%), against a 1.6% growth in general government expenditure. Net foreign demand and changes in inventories are also expected to make a negative contribution to growth

Consumption collapses

In 2020 Istat forecasts a "fall" for household consumption (-8.7%) which is also accompanied by the "collapse" of investments (-12.5%), against "growth 1.6% of general government expenditure. " The evolution of employment, measured in Ula terms, is expected to evolve in line with GDP, with a sharp reduction in 2020 (-9.3%) and a recovery in 2021 (+4.1

Labor, boom of inactive

Boom of the inactive in the first 4 months of the year, this causes the unemployment rate to drop. "Compared to the unemployed, the recomposition in favor of inactivity is increased (in April inactivity rate increased by 2 percentage points) while it decreases unemployment (-1.7 percentage points). In comparison with the average of 2019, in the first 4 months of the year about 500 thousand people stopped looking for work while passing among inactive people. This signal presents gender specific and age group specificities. The female inactivity rate grew by 2.3 percentage points while unemployment decreased by 2.6 percentage points. The increase in inactivity was more pronounced between the age group 35-49 (+ 10.4%, 278 thousand units) and 25-34 years (+ 8.8%, 172 thousand units) nea reduction in unemployment as well as in these age groups (respectively -26.9%, 182 thousand units, and -17.0%, 90 thousand units) also occurred among the youngest, 15-24 years (-31.8 %, 119 thousand units) ".