ANALYSIS
"This is one of the most difficult elections to analyze," warns Jérôme Sainte-Marie. Guest of the midday day newspaper of Europe 1 Sunday, the pollster and political scientist, president of the Pollingvox institute and author of Block against block, the dynamics of Macronisme, evokes the second round of the municipal elections, which will take place on Sunday June 28. He anticipates that due to the epidemic, as in the first round, participation will be low, "certainly more" than in 2014.
"LREM will pay a sanction vote"
For Jérôme Sainte-Marie, the first victim of the municipal elections will be La République en Marche. The presidential movement has failed to match its strategy to the health crisis in order to win key cities. Agnès Buzyn seems largely behind in Paris, and in cities that had largely voted for Emmanuel Macron in 2017 like Rennes or Rennes, the LREM lists do not seem able to prevail.
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"LREM pays two things". First, "the fact of having very few outgoing elected officials", explains the political scientist, in a ballot where those who have already exercised a mandate are in a position of strength. "Also, it will pay a sanction vote", continues Jérôme Sainte-Marie, as the PS had done in 2014. "In 2014, the left had been swept away in many cities because of the desire to sanction the unpopular power François Hollande. Today, in many cities, LREM is handicapped by Emmanuel Macron's very low popularity rate. "
The RN is "structurally disadvantaged for this election".
The main opponent of LREM across France, the National Rally should not benefit from much success at the end of June. If the eight mayors elected in 2014 were renewed, the party of Marine Le Pen is also "structurally disadvantaged for this election". "Because when we analyze the sociology of the electorate, the smaller the municipality, the more the RN vote is important", justifies Jérôme Sainte-Marie. "As a result, many RN voters find themselves in municipalities where there were no partisan political offers," said the political scientist.
However, one city will serve as a "test" for the National Rally: Perpignan. In this commune of 120,000 people, the list led by Louis Aliot is better placed than in 2014, and the deputy seems able to prevail against outgoing LR mayor Jean-Marc Poujol.
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An environmental surprise?
So, as in the first round, the surprise could come from EELV. "Environmentalists seem to be very well placed in many cities," explains Jérôme Sainte-Marie, "with very variable combinations depending on the territory." If in Paris or Grenoble, agreements have been made between the parties in the traditional form of the union of the left, "other forms of mobilization have emerged with citizen lists like Archipel Citoyen in Toulouse or even Printemps Marseillais ".
But in some cities, for lack of agreements between the various lists qualified in the second round, it is not sure that the environmentalists govern despite good scores in the first round. This is the case, for example, in Lille, where Martine Aubry (outgoing mayor, PS, 29% in the first round) and Stéphane Baly (EELV, 24% in the first round) failed to merge their lists and will clash in a triangular with LREM.
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For Edouard Philippe, "everything is played in Le Havre"
But whatever the results, it is still too early to comment on a possible immediate impact of the election, such as a cabinet reshuffle. "It's complicated since we have a dissociation of popularity within the executive, with Edouard Philippe who took advantage of the management of the Covid-19. Everything is played out for him in the city of Le Havre, where he doesn’t is not guaranteed to be elected, "recalls Jérôme Sainte-Marie. "It will be very difficult for the President of the Republic to change Prime Minister if Edouard Philippe wins in Le Havre. Otherwise, things would be very different".
On the side of macronie, the track of a post-municipal reshuffle is openly envisaged. The Marianne newspaper revealed that the head of the LREM deputies Gilles Le Gendre addressed a note on a possible reshuffle to the president of the Republic. Note in which he rebukes Edouard Philippe and offers a list of ministerial names according to him.