A push for unity: how the coronavirus pandemic and US protests can affect Trump's election chances

Donald Trump in his Twitter said that his approval rating among Republican Party supporters reached 96%.

"Wow! The Republican Party approval rating was 96% (and, I believe, this was even before the EXCELLENT data on the labor market situation appeared yesterday). Thank!" - wrote the president of the United States.

Wow! 96% Approval Rating in the Republican Party (and I believe this was before the “GREAT” Jobs Numbers yesterday). Thank you!

The American leader indicated the same figure on April 21 on his Facebook. According to him, this indicator means that the administration "is doing well (excellent) in the fight against the pandemic."

It is worth noting that, speaking about his ratings, the head of the White House did not indicate either the source of this information or the basis on which data these figures were obtained.

At the same time, polls by the Gallup Institute of Public Opinion indicate an increase in Trump's rating among Republicans over the past six months. So, by mid-May this figure reached 92%, while in the first half of January it was 88%. Moreover, since mid-January, it has not changed significantly, remaining in the range of 91–94%.

Interior furnishings

If the data presented by Trump are correct, the number of Republicans supporting the White House head does not decrease even against the backdrop of the difficult economic situation in the United States due to the coronavirus pandemic, as well as social upheavals associated with the protests over the death of African American George Floyd.

Recall that the United States is in first place in the world in the number of patients with coronavirus infection: according to Johns Hopkins University, more than 1 million 927 thousand infected were detected there, more than 110 thousand people with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 died.

In mid-April, the US Federal Reserve announced a sharp decline in economic activity in the United States due to the spread of coronavirus.

According to The New York Times, in just four weeks since mid-March, the US economy has lost about the same number of jobs as it has been created over the past ten years: about 22 million.

The situation in the country is aggravated by the protests that began after the death of the African American George Floyd. Recall, on May 25, he died in a Minneapolis hospital after one of the law enforcers during the detention pressed the man with his knee to the ground, putting strong pressure on the neck. A video of the arrest was published on the network, which shows that Floyd complained several times about the lack of air, and then lost consciousness.

• Protests in the United States over the death of African American George Floyd in Washington
• Reuters
• © Jim Bourg

This video caused a wide resonance in American society. In Minneapolis, demonstrations began that swept across the country: protests and riots took place in more than 500 US cities. Despite the fact that the four law enforcement officers involved in the detention of Floyd were fired, and the policeman who directly pressed Floyd to the ground with his knee was charged with murder, the demonstrations did not stop. Demonstrators demand that law enforcement be held accountable.

During the rallies, police arrested over 10 thousand people. At the same time, police often use force to prevent civil actions against excessive cruelty of law enforcement officials. In a number of cases, local authorities have already recognized that such actions by law enforcement officers were unjustified. In particular, several police officers were fired or temporarily suspended from their duties.

“There is an increase in support”

A number of analysts believe that the tense situation inside the country could ultimately play into Trump’s hands in the presidential race. 

“The situation with the protests and the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic could work to increase the election chances of the incumbent president. Now the Republicans see that Democrats are ready to make any sacrifices just to discredit the head of the White House. This circumstance gives a new impetus to the Republican Party’s supporters for even greater unity, ”said Alexander Domrin, professor at the HSE, in a conversation with RT.

According to him, “if it were not for the aggressive behavior on the part of the Democrats in relation to the current American leader,” it is quite possible that some of the Republicans “would stay home and not go to the presidential election 2020”.

“And now, representatives of the Republican Party are actually telling their opponents, the Democrats:“ Do not wait, we will go to the polls and vote for Trump, ”the expert said.

• Supporters of US President Donald Trump, Charlotte, North Carolina
• Reuters
• © Lucas Jackson

For his part, Yuri Rogulev, director of the F. Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States at Moscow State University, explained in an interview with RT that because of the protests and the spread of COVID-19, "the split in American society has become even deeper."

“Against this background, there is indeed an increase in support for Trump among Republicans. However, this is not an abrupt increase. Supporters of the American leader continue to strengthen their consolidation, which was already at a fairly high level, ”the analyst said.

According to political analyst Alexander Asafov, judging by Trump’s approval ratings among Republicans, we can say that they are “pleased with his actions in a crisis situation.”

"Representatives of the Republican Party believe that the measures that Trump is taking are quite sufficient," the expert said.

Election Odds

Note, on the eve of Trump’s main rival, Democrat Joe Biden said on his Twitter page that he had collected the required number of delegates' votes (1991) for the nomination of a candidate for the post of head of state from the Democratic Party.

“I will fight every day for your votes, so that together we can win the battle for the soul of our country,” he added.

Folks, tonight we secured the 1,991 delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination. I'm going to spend every day fighting to earn your vote so that, together, we can win the battle for the soul of this nation. https://t.co/sl3wFGabpg

It is worth recalling that in late April, former US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and former president Barack Obama expressed support for Biden in his struggle for the nomination of a Democratic candidate in the upcoming presidential election.

At the same time, opinion polls conducted by American companies sometimes give mixed results. So, according to the Gallup Public Opinion Institute, the overall approval rating for Trump's policy from the second half of April to mid-May was at 49%. At the same time, according to RealClearPolitics opinion poll aggregator, Biden is growing in popularity. So, at the moment, the Democratic presidential candidate rating is 49.6%, while Trump earned only 42.4% of the respondents.

Analysts, in turn, note that, despite the Republican’s stable support from Trump, it’s quite difficult to accurately predict the outcome of the presidential campaign, given the current “unstable domestic political situation in the United States.”

• Voters fill out ballots during primary Illinois elections
• Reuters
• © Daniel Acker

As explained by Yuri Rogulev, the growth of Trump’s approval among the members of his party “does not give him any guarantees for re-election.”

“With such an unstable situation in the USA, everything can radically change. The same applies to the election chances of presidential candidates, ”said the expert.

From his point of view, the economic situation in the United States will play a decisive role.

“If it starts to improve, then Trump’s chances of winning will increase. If the situation changes in the opposite direction, the current head of the White House will not be easy to be re-elected, ”said the analyst.

A similar position is held by Alexander Asafov.

“The situation with the coronavirus pandemic and its negative consequences for the American economy, an increase in the number of unemployed and mass protests does not make it possible to make a convincing forecast, as the situation changes daily,” the expert said.

At the same time, Alexander Domrin admitted that in the end, after all, Trump will win, and the situation with protests in the US will stabilize "closer to the presidential election."

“The spread of coronavirus infection has become an unpredictable challenge for Trump. Before the pandemic, it could be said that the current head of the White House would defeat Biden by knockout. However, now we are talking about the fact that Trump can beat his opponent on points, ”the expert concluded.